The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Extract from Media presentation
"Completed
1. Gas Produced from Lesedi wells
2. Mining Licence secured which allows project development; valid until 2042
3. Environmental approval for 20MW of Gas-fired power and 20MW of Solar power
4. 10MW Power Purchase Agreement signed with Botswana Power Corporation (BPC)
5. Generation Licence approved by Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA)"
Thornback, if you examine that list what is the least impressive item?
1, essential
2. 1942 will see us many of us out of this world
3. 40Mw of energy + half a dozen countries or more - all desperate for power. Ready market? Yes!
4. 10MW for 5 years ....... 2026 v 2042 , 10MW v 2MW PPA that isn't mentioned , and 40MW
5. esential
Imho , producing the pmustower is THE CHALLENGE , and everything is in place plus Hydrogen and Orapa possibillities!
SELLING that power is the easiest challenge TLOU will ever face IMHO!
As well as my thinking it, TG iundeniably said we did not need Botswana at all, and we could sell straight to SAPP. Is that achievable? I don't think we know for certain, but that is what the PPA has made the answer irrelevant , we'll be connected to SAPP with Botswana's blessing.
Investors surely think as I do , their problem has been the time it is taking to dewater Lesedi under Covid restraints! You have heard that before somewhere?
Very true Hb2, as you indicate, without the PPA we wouldn't actually be on the motorway, we would still be sat in the garage.
My take on the ppa is that it's very important now but might end up seeming less significant in the future. It's like turning the ignition on your car, once you're doing 70 on the motorway, it's not something you think about, but you wouldn't be there without it.
A project timeline would be good, meaningful communication from the BoD, something that we can measure and that keeps them accountable.
I can't understand your "the PPA was not that important" Brad but each to their own.
It unlocks everything but now the focus is the Finance.
Hopefully it is concluded asap and then TLOU can really take back control.
The field operations phase needs to be properly Project Managed and as previously indicated I'd like to see a Project Plan or at very least an illustration with timescales attached with regular progress updates.
Let's get the bull whips out and accelerate this scope, time is money.
The PPA was vitally important. For the simple reason that without it, Tlou could not move forward to secure project finance to deliver the project plan.
Those that appreciate this, understand the significance. Those that do not, well they have never worked in a world where those entities who are prepared to lend significant and material amounts of money to companies begging for money to facilitate the delivery of their grand plans and strategy basically are who call the shots.
Please please please please GG and CC, do not have said words that cannot be delivered in next couple weeks. If funding is still not secured by end January 2022, oh me oh my, there is going to be some very ****ed off shareholders
I have not been shy in stating the PPA was not that important, but it was obviously better than not having it, and I am surprised the early gain was not maintained. 3p is laughably low at any time in our history imho, but after the PPA on Monday , it is incredibly low!
If the funding comes at a sensible interest rate with t&c that gives us a couple of years before repayments are due, and either Syn Met have good news on their/our prototype or we get a report that dewatering has improved or drilling can be restarted , then I'd expect a doubling or trebling of the sp.
I suspect many of us have more shares than we should in our portfolios, by % , having snapped up the bargain prices that have been round for so long! Newbies have so much history to catch up on, that they probably only see the moaners point of view on timings - and are waiting for funding before putting their feet into our waters!
It is going to cost them 66% of the shares they could have bought if they leave it too long.
If the pension fund give us very favourable terms they may make more money on paper on their share holding than the higher interest rate would have brought in eventually.
That would reduce our profitability , lowering both the sp and the pension fund's investment value. TG will be more than aware of the potential on this I reckon.
Going elsewhere , we'd have been screwed for the highest rates with little or no leverage.
Australians appear to be in the same LTH quandary with their sp at the equivalent of 3.15p (5.8c)
a minute or two ago. Clocks go back shortly - will funding come first?
Agree TB. What I do see pretty clearly is …. this dog of a company finally performing. Unless of course it is all a scam ….., which I don’t think it is.
I wonder if MM is Tidd_83 in a different profile. And where is Buzzardstubble or AndyForster or the many other clowns from 2017 and early 2018…. They were as obvious a ‘ramp team’ as I have ever seen.
In fairness to Smith, he simply believes what he has been spoon fed. And isn’t clued in enough to interrogate the incredibly obvious signals. And no doubt, if Tlou pulls through we will never hear the end of his ‘never in doubt’ routine
If the BDC took an equity stake in TLOU, well that would be fantastic.
I don't see it either mrmoagi and will stick with my guess at the BPOPF.
You never know though..!
For the next round of fund raising, my view is they secure the project finance package ($10m or whatever) and there is also an equity placement with one (or a small number of ) key investors. I don’t see a right issue again - current shareholders base will simply not be open to that.
Maybe Warren Mitchell and his family office will step up; maybe BPOPF or a domestic Botswana institution; but sadly I don’t see BDC being the saviour here.
100 per cent hope I am wrong; just that I don’t see them putting their capital at risk here.
Appi I agree, a lot of people will no doubt be waiting to see if there's a placing.
I can't see there not being an element of equity, especially with the finance providers being a "very strategical long term holder" as CC put it.
Yes that means some dilution I'm afraid but hopefully a lift in SP too.
Like you say the placing value is critical as the SP always seems to follow it.
I've got my guesses but time will tell....
Not at all mrmoagi, I, like you want to know ALL the finer details. It would be remiss of anyone invested here not to want to know everything.
Hopefully we will get some meat added to the bones very soon.
The muted market reaction is in my opinion mostly because of the expectation of an incoming placing. TG has stated on more than one occasion the finance will most likely be in the form equity and debt and we are trying raise about half our MCap. I think most folk will hold off until the details are announced and then see where the SP heads - AIM generally reacts badly to placings - no matter how good the cause. Then again, you never know they may raise at a premium - they have before if I remember corretly - but they have also given substantial discounts in the past too - that near 30% in a few years back still smarts.
TB, you might not like me saying this but you seem to be very much on same wavelength as myself with Tlou. I would also like to see more detail on flow rates and gas composition, since anyone really understanding the gas game know how important these are. I don’t for a second buy the ‘not being provided for commercial reasons’ excuse. Let the market be impressed if they are that good….
No, I also pick holes in the substance of your comments. Got better things to be getting on with now, though, so I'm popping you back in the filter bin. Peace be with you.
Is that all you have got hot potatoe, to pick up my spelling which for you’re information is always wrong because it irk’s brad!
I like your honesty as always thornback, I not that surprised by the somewhat muted reaction but would have liked a bigger reaction if I’m honest, a large trade from yesterday is showing, that is quite a big one! Someone is confidant! Once the funding is agreed we might see 4.5-5 p area reached! Have to wait and see I suppose.
I'm in that group whizz, I'm a little disappointed this didn't test the 4 to 5p mark. Like I've already said maybe peeps want to see the PPA details or Finance agreed and detailing before buying in.
I do think a lot haven't grasped what the PPA offers the company.
And it's funny how you and Moagi 'both' seem to think I'll be irked by you changing my moniker to hot potato (go for your life, what's in a name). Do you have more than this in common?
Firstly, 'you're', not 'your'
Secondly, of course I always hope for a higher share price, though I don't recall making any short term predictions, but which idiot wouldn't want it higher... Oh silly moi, the Whizzer, only happy when there's something to whine about.
And you hot potato are in the group who thought that once the ppa was obtained that the sp would be off like a rocket!!
Go on admit it to yourself, you can do it, your disappointed with the reaction! If you say your not your just lying to yourself!
Well, you wouldn't have (not 'of'!) for starters, as you had the ppa as being miles off, lol
Well the sp reaction has been poor since the ppa sign off!
Who’d of thought!