The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Oh, for sure - no argument there.
I'd love to know more about Senegal and the economics, would bring the company fantastic certainty for the future.
ISA-Investor I agree but would like segun to comment on those points out of interest
Interesting stuff but, yeah, I am not sure why Thor would be considered 'high risk' with Segilola, Nigeria (not to be confused with Senegal) now happily producing away. Senegal might be next, could be next... might not be. It's in exploration and, no doubt, there are in-country and local content requirements for doing some or all of that work. The THX guys who have successfully developed Segilola will no doubt be able to manage any 'knowledge gaps' local firms may have and work with them to reach a place where they have all the data they need to take it to any sort of FID, etc.
I hope THX releases some January figures in the coming days and I am expecting to see production and sales somewhere between US$10M and US$15M of gold sold. On that basis; there would appear to be no reason why we should expect any issues with servicing the debt, which is relatively small when you consider those sales, annualised (assuming gold continues to bounce around $1800).
Whenever I look at the valuation of the company; I don't even include Senegal as it is so early stage but clearly there is potential value there, which shouldn't be fully discounted. If we simply look at the asset (the mine, now producing) and liability ratios (the 5yr loan) on Segilola, this is horribly undervalued and is rapidly becoming a real cash cow. Should be 2-3x here and expect a serious re-rate in 2022 based on positive cashflow and likely Segilola extensions, etc.
MrTibbles
Thank you for your valued input ( it is somewhat beyond my pay grade )
I have sent your comments to the CEO of Thor and asked for comment ( within public domain data / RNS issued to date)
"They now have their own laboratory in Segilola , Nigeria , so testing (for life of mine extension )
and focused drilling is proceeding at pace."
The company did not draw down the full loan that was available but really from now on net debt will be reducing by approximately 5 million per month , which gives them enough generated cash to be in a net cash situation in just over 1 year.
Senegal is exploration early stage
Segilola in Nigeria is now producing at maximum capacity albeit not at the targeted 97% but approx 93%
They produced 6000 oz in December but are now moving on to a higher grade ore.
Guidance is for y/e 22 80,000 to 100,000 oz with first year AISC of 980
With a gold price of say 1750 this should generate cash for year ending 22 of approximately 69 million
They now have their own laboratory in Segilola , so testing and focused drilling is proceeding at pace.
Look at the technical reports the last report is dated December 2021.
https://thorexpl.com/site/assets/files/2546/thorexpl_corporate_jan_2022_1.pdf
The authors are an unknown firm from Senegal?
More concerning, the report takes the definition of what is mineable to Mineral Resources, not Mineral Reserves?
They also do not even provide an economic assessment at PEA or scoping study level?
This is high risk
The mineralisation is in veins associated with a shear zone.
Nowhere do they clearly discuss width of veins and only one cross section is provided?
As you can see, the interpretation shows strong pinching and swelling. Without more cross sections, I find it difficult to gauge how reasonable the interpretation is.
The reported grade (production lower than resource grade pointing to dilution at 5% being clearly underestimated) is attractive for an open pit, but no indication at what strip ratio this is?
In conclusion small scale firm which is POSSIBLY mining an attractive deposit, although It is impossible to determine this from the available info?
Note -from the last financials that the net working capital is very negative, they have debt and have sold a metal stream?
CAD$0.7+ ... not US this time, so easy to relate to current Toronto SP!
And "crash", should obviously be "cash" - LOL!
Could be. Worked hard to get this far so wouldn't be a problem to my mind to liquify a few. I always calculate the value on the fully diluted (ie assuming all options exercised) number of shares that could be in circulation, which, according to Thor's site is 669,198,009 . Last time I did it, I think I calculated a realistic valuation in the CAD$0.7+ region. A little below the latest broker research but tonnes of upside from here. Just got to keep releasing news of the crash cow in the market and hopefully volume increases with interest, then the SP will follow.
share options still maybe
US$120M MCAP that is... always convert CAD to USD as it makes more sense in the context of gold price being in USD.
16.1% drop in Toronto, currently, on ~425k shares traded or >2x average volume. Guess there's a seller.... but then there's also a buyer who is expecting upside and it's not a huge drop considering it is 10x the volume of yesterday (or was it Monday?) and then there's the usual large spread. It's frustrating but, yes, fully agree it can, will and recently has moved up just as fast. I expect some good news in the next couple of weeks, updating us with January figures, demonstrating ongoing plant stability, high grade ore going through, high recovery and sales at the strong gold price. A few months of that and the value will hopefully become clear to any doubters/sellers. Toronto MCAP is currently ~$120M and we're expecting >50% of that after AISC this year (need to re-check my calcs) and then ~70% in year two on? Bargain.
Yes 10% drop for 60,000 shares daft , but will equally work the other way
Looks like you jinxed it :D
Gold up, THX producing well, SP drops here today...
Still all volume 'issues'. SP swings wildly with very few transactions and a wide spread.
Frustrating but the company accounts will speak for themselves in 2022. Looking for an end of Jan production and sales update to push the 'interest' on!
Gold up quite a bit but THX static - hopefully next few updates will garner more interest
Yeah, the "130" as opposed to 1830 threw me there! Inflation is rampant... I am liking gold a lot to break back over $2000.
Thor is poised to take full advantage. Expect cashflows to improve significaantly!
Price of Gold
according to chartists if it broke 1830 it would rocket?? gone straight to 1840
POG? Petropavlovsk?
yes broke through
Not thats its critical for THX as they have a very low AISC of 680 LOM
Wonder if gold is going to get through 130 this time