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“Good luck with securitising that one!”
No luck required, Sirius control the transport.
Quick calculation the shaft alone will produce 6000 tonnes,
“How will they get it out and how much?”
TF a Shaft Boring Roadheader. Into a kibble , into a truck , money in the BANK.
TF the poly that’s in the shaft will create cash flow.
I see some AAL contact details on that page too
https://www.angloamerican.com/offer
"That’s what they will have to do now that a NO vote is on the cards I agree.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing though. I’m sure now they wish they had taken the oversubscribed 15p open offers now but we are where we are
You all know how I’m voting and if we do kick this ridiculous offer in to touch let’s see what they come up with but it’s my guess the first thing will be a hundred million birdie from Qatar"
------------------
Well they stand to lose 100 mill if it goes to admin so it makes sense. They save their investment and would also get a huge chunk of the company as a bonus. How many 100's of millions has all the other II's put into this that they might like to save as well
Birdie ??????
Should read bridge
It’s a bloody Albatross we need actually lol
Bloody predictive text
@Truthfactory I think we're basically in agreement, but you say:
"A better deal would be Anglo stumping up the £600m at a decent price and maybe an open offer to shareholders to run alongside?"
Why would Anglo stump up any money on a debt basis? They aren't a bank; if they're going to put money into a mine then they want to own it, or at least significantly reap the rewards of the mining operation, not receive a few percent. Hence their only offer is for the company.
Rock salt, you know there’s poly at the bottom of the shaft? Where the shat penates the seam is worth circa £800000 . And then you’ve got pit bottom to develop.
So yes cash flow.
LTV
That’s what they will have to do now that a NO vote is on the cards I agree.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing though. I’m sure now they wish they had taken the oversubscribed 15p open offers now but we are where we are
You all know how I’m voting and if we do kick this ridiculous offer in to touch let’s see what they come up with but it’s my guess the first thing will be a hundred million birdie from Qatar
TF sinking the first shaft will create cashflow and de risk the project. Making further finance easier to obtain.
RF perhaps I misinterpreted the sentiment behind your initial post and read something in to it that wasn't there. Passions are running high right now, probably because the stakes are high. I certainly don't think or mean to igive the impression that a rescue will come along, just that it might. Fraser is making everything black and white and I think, especially with Odey and Polygon in the mix, it's at best a shade of grey. Fraser keeps digging deeper and deeper and he is really winding me up - and a good many others it seems.
The article in the Evening Standard gives me hope and also mentions that once AAL turned up QIA stepped aside (knowing that their bonds are safe in the event f an AAL takeover). If that's why QIA haven't stepped up, and AAL are kicked in to touch with a no vote, then its logical to think QIA may return
ffc Agreed that $600M now would be the preference but $300 for a year of further progress and de-risk is still preferable to handing the keys to AAL. Indeed if the money had to be raised with equity, deferring $300M until next year might allow it to be raised on better terms. I'm not sure why we haven't been tapped for even less to keep the lights on and allow the BOD to keep looking and knocking on doors. Surely the adverse bond market conditions (such that there are) surely cant last forever.
I agree with the sentiment LTV but if they get away with it you can be damn sure he'll be getting plenty of pats on the back from his own shareholders ..
Although I do get why we are trying for two years up front ( wouldn't really fancy going through all this every year until production)
Regards
ffc
That's tough to watch. It's like being mugged at knifepoint in the broad daylight. I cant fully express my feelings towards Cutafani or I'll probably get a ban.
I note they intend to spend $300M per year, so we don't even need to find all $600M upfront.
Scroll down click accept and watch why they want us
All for 5.5p ?????
https://www.angloamerican.com/offer
Sorry LTV, meant rescue either before OR after 3 March vote
LTV re. your 10.41. Not looking to get into a pointless spat with you. Was not seeking advice. Was interested whether there was any more attractive risk/reward outcome of voting No, other than that we might get an II, QIA or otherwise, to invest funding into Sirius. You have not identified one and so far, I think,neither has anyone else. Fair enough.
I will answer your Qs: Yes its possible the QIA might step in. Yes apparently they could easily afford to. Yes your analsys as to why they might is rational.
To be fair you have also advanced the personal view that they may well do so. The counter to that is perhaps well why have they not done so yet, although I guess 3 March is still a few days away.
Anyway, I have little more to say on this. The position seems to be that we might get rescued by an II by 3 March; you go further and think that this may well happen. There is also the PI funding iniative which I have committed to, and of course the possibility of a pre-vote counter offer, which does not seem to be expected but you never know.
Regards RF
YES CHRIS we are very very very angry
RF, without the benefit of a crystal ball or time travel, I'm not sure what advice or opinion you're seeking. It seemed like you were insinuating that "is that the best you can do" - . It's all speculation.
In the event of a no vote do you think it's possible Qatar Investment Authority might step in to save their hundreds of millions of dollars investment still going to AAL but at a fraction of the 5.5p?
Would you agree they could afford the $600M required without breaking a sweat?
They wouldn't be doing that on a charitable basis. I expect they'd get 60% + of the company for that. Not only would that allow them to recoup their initial investment, they'd make a killing on the further top up investment.
It's possible and it's a rational analysis is it not?
The company are denying any approach from QIA, but the details in the Evening Standard seem to me to be too specific to be made up out of thin air.
Hi LTW. OK the, here is your reply to Westcountry in full:-
"Westcountry, IMO, if the vote is no then some of the big institutional investors - who could easily afford to provode financing - might step in. In particular those holding the bonds. The vakue of the bonds is preserved if the company s sold to AAL because AAL has a strong balance sheet and the likelihood of the bonds being repaid is high so they wont lose. In administration it's not just shareholders that get wiped out, bondholders do too. QIA hold more than $100 million worth of bonds. I just don't see them kissing them goodbye in addition to the $40 odd million they invested in equity shares."
I can't see it adds much to the issue - it just identifies the Qataris as one of the possible big investors who "might"- your word- step in.
Also I don't know why you need to say that you "don't give a rat's arze" what I decide to do? Why be unpleasant - this whole situation is unpleasant enough without gratuitous agression.
I did not even identify you, let alone misrepresent you or doubt your sincerity at all. Sorry you feel that way.
However, I would point out to you that while your above-quoted post says "might" step in, you now say that you think bond-holders "will" step in. You are entitled to say whatever you like of course (subject perhaps to my point on civility), but there is a big difference between the two- are you yourself clearly presenting your own views?
RF
I agree with Lyndhurst1973. I also sold about 750k shares with an avg of just under 20p which hurt a lot.
I also put it into ITM, Ceres and PHE and Amazon and eventually will recover. I think Hydrogen is a more likely winner and even if there is a rescue through dilution the share price will not double or triple anytime soon.
As many have said, big boys are called big for a reason. And they generally manage to win.
dilution completely destroys any profit you may wish to receive in the future, this has happened to me so many times with stocks kenmare cadence bidstack, when yo hold say 500,000 shares in a company then they are diluted to 5,000 you stand to make very little profit in the long turn, no believe me dilution is when a company wants to destroy your investment !
I admire the courage of shareholders here who have not sold up and attempting to turn the tide in your favour.
You are up against the big guys. Fraser probably had good intentions but the dye was cast when JPM got on board. JPM set out to screw us all and now they are in cahoots with AA.
You guys don’t have a chance in hell.
I sold out a while ago...recouped a substantial percentage of my losses with PRSM, LSEG and ITM.
Life is too short to risk your health trying to beat the big guys. They always win.
I have bought a chunk of AA shares...GLA
RF, if you’re going to quote my post quote all of it otherwise you’re in danger of misrepresenting my reply.
I’m not telling anyone what to do and don’t give a rats arze what you decide to do, but dint misrepresent my posts or my sincerity.
I think bond holders will step in to save themselves and, by association, us. That’s best case and cones with heavy dilution. I’d be ok with 60-75% dilution. That’s still better for us in the long run than Fraser giving the keys to his Aussie mates for a song.
Is there risk. Yes. Never said there wasn’t.
There are only three outcomes here, sale to Anglo, rescue or administration. Make your own mind up , if you have one, and/or stop pretending to be relying on others to do the thinking for you.