Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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It's a shame you didn't update that BB with your decision to sell. Your posting history tells another story. If you can find anyone that believes you, then good for you but as far as I'm concerned you bought CINE and it collapsed. I guess based on that, we'll not hear from you again once you've departed. Is that right? No goodbye or updates.... you just go stone cold and disappear?
I think I'm getting a better picture of you now. Thanks for the 'after the event' information. Not worth the BB that it isn't written on I'm afraid.
Give me a timeframe, Add. When do I need to still be right by for you to climb down from that stance? This AGM? Feb? Want to call it before May next year? I'm patient, so I don't mind Dec '23 if you're not willing to accept it until then?
Sean, I would suggest Quady has been out-Quadied by stack. At least Q understands the significance of the review and accepts there are likely to be changes.
Still, it's good to have an alternative opinion.
The announcement represents not much more than further hyperbole. Got to convince the plebs we have a plan, and we've used the 'next cab off the rank' line, so announce a strategic review. I can name two major shareholders who won't be interested in any 'action' if the review came to nothing... The same two whose CEOs don't really care about solg just yet.
As I say, I'm happy to be proved wrong. But I don't think I will be. Next week, next month, next December, we'll still be here, and those who are in too deep will still be peddling the idea of an imminent takeover.
Into the 16s.
And the board has been completely Quadied today.
Stack, if, as you suggest, the review produces nothing other than hyperbole and maintains the status quo, I think we can assume a great deal of shareholder activism.
The announcement of the review marks a sea change for the company and it's surprising you don't recognise the fact.
I bought in April 2020. Left on a 40% profit. Made enough to upgrade the car. Said at the time that they would survive the next debt restructure, which they did. And the two after that.
Again, there was a strong de-ramp narrative that had taken hold there, trying to spook investors by claiming they would collapse in the next few months. They didn't, so my advice was sound.
I didn't post again once I wasn't invested (not my style). But the fact I took my profit showed nicely that I didn't believe the company could go on to survive the headwinds indefinitely.
Does that answer all your questions? I'm flattered that you've taken the time to read my posting history. Please don't be offended if I don't return the favour :)
Stackhigh,
How did your investment in CINE work out? You were confident you were right then but we all know what happened next. And the best bit is, after lecturing a few posters on there, you promptly disappeared. Never to post on that BB again. So what happened on that one then? How did you get that sooooo wrong!
I'll still be here next December, don't worry.
I think you're wrong, Fort. Shall I check in next week (no takeover) next month (no takeover) next spring (nope, still Solgold I reckon) or next December?
We can do all of the above: I'll enjoy being right at each point equally. See you next Weds for the first check-in :)
Stackhigh, I'm afraid you are peddling the same narrative as many others have done on here and the negative slant or 'there is no takeover' etc etc is par for the course. There will always be naysayers and there will always be bullish supporters. There's nothing wrong with balance on these BB's and you're welcome to take a longer term view but that doesn't make it correct or any more valid than bullish commentary. You have no evidence to support the fact that a takeover will not be coming before Dec 2023. None. But there is evidence out there right now and over the last year that super majors are on the hunt for acquisitions. RIO bought Turquoise hill back after floating it (derisked). BHP after Oz Minerals. Noront and Wyloo. Tesla in discussions with Glencore over a 20% stake. The list goes on. All the stars are aligned for SOLG right now and ripe for a takeover. Ironically, if the sp was in the 45p+ levels then it might not be such a great takeover target. But at 17p, it's a terrific opportunity for some buyers out there to make a low ball and work up from there. Norges, Blackrock and quite a few others were buying in large chunks at levels near 35p recently. Nothing has changed since then apart from the fact that we are now funded, have 100% ENSA and CGP on board which secures AGM issues in favour of the business. SOLG are in better shape now than they were back in the 35p days. In fact, with PFS2 and Porvenir Pea plus Strategic review news due all within the next 7 weeks or so, what's not to like???
The one thing you seem to be missing is that a takeover is within SOLG's control. They can trigger the 'game' when they like. All Mather and CGP have to do is have an entity /consortium like Maxit, Gina, Wyloo, Sunstone etc etc pitch an offer at 50p+ and then watch what unfolds. It's easy to trigger the sale... but the time has to be right and we are nearing that time but still have a few loose ends like the AGM resolutions to sort out and the merger of course.
It's coming alright and don't worry about apologising or holding up your hand etc as your alias will be long gone by then.
Glad you agree, Red: BHPs lack of m&a action another reason a BHP bid highly unlikely as things stand.
Love the $/£ hair-splitting that takes place on here, when we're talking about the world's biggest miner. Like they might suddenly look at their balance sheet and go 'oh no- £7bn cash, not 8?! We're ruined!' lol
Once again, either I'll be right next December or most on here will be. No one has changed my mind today, and I did say I wasn't interested in people trying. Particularly if they didn't bring any fresh evidence besides the usual conjecture, based in this boards biased read of past events/statements (which is on heavy rotation here).
Thanks all!
Does anyone know how net smelter return works? So from below release 0.6% NSR gave solg $50mn. A very silly approach but if we replicate this deal 10 times with say 10 counterparts, does that mean Cascabel will get solg at 6% NSR (10x 0.6%) approximately $500mn or 100x gets $5bn for 60% NSR?
"
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd (“Osisko”) (OR: TSX & NYSE) is pleased to announce that it has entered into a binding agreement with SolGold plc (“SolGold”) (SOLG: TSX & LSE) with respect to a US$50 million royalty financing (the “Transaction”) to support the advancement of SolGold’s Cascabel copper-gold property in northeastern Ecuador.
As part of the Transaction, Osisko will acquire a 0.6% net smelter return royalty (the “NSR”) covering the entire 4,979 hectare Cascabel property, including SolGold’s world-class Alpala project for which SolGold released the results of a pre-feasibility study in April of 2022 (the “PFS”).
Sandeep Singh, President and CEO of Osisko, commented: “We are excited to partner with SolGold on one of the best copper-gold discoveries made over the last decade. We believe that Alpala has the potential to become a Tier-1 asset with a much longer mine life than currently envisaged. SolGold was a first mover in Ecuador and we view the broader Cascabel property as having the geological potential to support significant further discoveries. Osisko’s investment in SolGold adds yet another high-quality royalty to our portfolio of peer-leading growth.”
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
Exceptional Royalty on one of the Most Significant Cu-Au Discoveries
NSR covers the Cascabel property comprising 4,979 hectares of Andean Copper Belt;
Total resources at Cascabel currently represent approximately 20% and 16% of the total copper and gold in new major deposit discoveries since 2012 (as compiled by SolGold);
Based on the PFS, the NSR would average approximately 4,700 annual gold-equivalent ounces (“GEOs”) to Osisko over an initial 26-year mine life and 7,600 GEOs over the first 10-years of nameplate production.
Exposure to the Large-Scale Alpala Project
The Alpala deposit is SolGold’s principal focus on the broader Cascabel property. The PFS study on Alpala outlined a large underground block cave mine with an initial 26-year mine life based on Probable Reserves (only 21% of total M&I tonnage inventory);
Alpala Probable Reserves contain 3.3 Mt of Cu, 9.4 Moz of Au and 30 Moz of Ag (558 Mt of 0.58% Cu, 0.52g/t Au and 1.65g/t Ag);
Alpala is estimated to produce an average of 132 kt Cu and 358 koz Au annually over the life of mine with peak annual production of 210 kt Cu and 829 koz Au;
Based on the PFS, Alpala is expected to rank in the first decile in terms of production costs.
Further Exploration Potential Within the Broader Property
Presence of regional targets on the Cascabel property that have similar geophysical and geochemical characteristics to known mineralized porphyry clusters on the property;
Yet...
$8bn not £8bn...
And why not? They couldn't stump up thw extra $100m for Noront...
They've made very few acquisitions in the last 20 years...why not...Henry talks the talk but doen'st walk it...
Maybe their givernance is too big and unwieldy...
They have £8b cash but haven't offered it here.
There's your answer! :)
All the best to you, too.
Not aiming to upset anything (spooking some small time PIs out of shares makes no difference to my strategy). I just objected to the often one-sided, 'conjecture sold as fact' that so many on this board are guilty of. You rarely get 'i think there will be a takeover but there is actually very little evidence to support my view' from folk on here.
Glad to have been able to provide a counterpoint today. It's risky to invest in a hypothetical takeover which has been discussed for years, but hasn't happened. Someone reading the board today would have seen a bit more balance. :)
Stack.
Can you tell us what factual basis you have for making such assertive statements?
For example, do you work for BHP to state that:
"If we were of significant interest, they could have taken us out for small change at any point in recent years."
If your statement were true they could have taken out Noront for a fraction of what we would cost and why are they arguing the toss about Oz Minerals...where they will probably once again walk away when they could have bought it for $10 not long ago...
BHP have frequently stated their interest in copper and if we don't matter why did they publicly berate us for the FNV deal and why did they vote against incumbent Directors at the last two AGMs?
Why haven't they walked away from their now only £50m investment in SOLG...?
They have $8bn cash. They offered cash to Noront and then walked away. Why haven't they offered cash here?
I respect anyone's right to an opinion but please state it as an opinion not an assertion, otherwise we might deduce you were a deramper.
And as to my "hope. Just hope"
Try "masses of reseacrh; reasoning; deduction and belief..."
Stack,
That is a very poor and in my view a ridiculous answer, so they are in business not to worry about money?
I will leave it there I think, as I said, subtle way of trying to upset things here
Atb
Mathers: they don't care about the pocket change they have invested here.
Red: one word answer to almost everything you asked: hope. Just 'hope'.
Time is literally the only way to find out who is right, and as I say, I'll eat humble pie if I'm wrong. But to cycle back to my original point: BHP don't think about us the way most on here hope they do. Sorry!
Honest of you to admit to an opinion, but be prepared to be soooo wrong.
Of course thats an opinion but ask yourself...
Why have CGP thrown in at far worse terms than they said they were worth the last time Nick bid?
Why have Sangha (with 20%), Irwin et al so strongly supported (why did he tweet: "First Step - Friendly Merger with Cornerstone - COMPLETE, Second Step - Raise US$50 million in non-dilutive financing - COMPLETE, Third Step - Realize full value for SolGold Shareholders - IN PROGRESS. Impressive positive progress, congrats!")
Why would NM be so apparently blase having lost £50m on paper since June...?
What are Sangha's Maxit doing being appointed advisors to CGP AND SOLG?
Who will the 6.7% share stake go to? What effect will it have on the SP? Will it be used as the foundation of a bid?
Why would BHP and NCM sit back and watch dilution to 10% when they kicked up so much over the FNV deal and apparently blocked a cashbox deal in July?
Why are BHP so quiet since the merger RNS...
Etc.
Etc.
Stack,
Does it matter to you what others do with their investment here? You’re very subtle in the “ let’s upset the applecart “ I’m happy to hold for the right deal which is what Mather and others will do.
Why would all the so called big holders be here if they don’t want this mine, they could sell up and utilise their money else where on many occasions, it’s hit 40p a few times, why would certain people try using dirty tricks?
The mine is wanted and needed, Ecuador has opened its doors and wants/ needs new investments, so as I have said long term for me or my family to benefit one day.
Atb
Ah well...could have been worse...
UT 309405 at 16.96...
Hi add
I don't think much will have materially changed by next December (2023). We might have handed back some more concessions to limit cash burn. We might have either had a raise or done another royalty deal. We may well have an new CEO and probably another different CFO. But solg will still be saying things like 'we've got another cab to come off the rank' and 'we expect a total re-rate in the sp'. This strategic review probably won't yield much more than this hyperbole has in the past, as we don't control whether others want to JV with us, or buy our assets. Those have been options for years, and they haven't happened.
Once again, I know this opinion is contrary to most on here, and I know it's unpopular, so I'll happily admit it if I'm wrong by next Dec. I don't think the same will be true for others on here that are too married to their takeover narrative.
I have, thanks. Perfect sense :)
Interesting ,Stackhigh. If I've read you correctly, you're of the opinion that nothing will have happened before Dec 2023? In other words the Review will deliver nothing whatsoever?
Oh dear...UT could be in the 16s...
Wheres the momentum Twigger...? All talk no action...