Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Don’t think it’s that simple, the new CEO only arrived last month so I would not be sure, otherwise why would he take on this role and put his reputation on the line? These are the negotiations he will be leading right now!
Which they would have done if an agreement was reachable. How many weeks has the ASX been in suspension, now? How many times has the suspension been extended?
If the existing lenders were keen to deal (and 'want return and not assets'), then a deal would have been done right at the start of this emergency fund raise. The deal hasn't been done throughout this time = serious problems.
An, yes - they will take the assets to other well managed operations (Australian Potash, say) and put together a package for then to take it forward with a management that can and will produce returns.
Lot to learn fella…watch and learn. Likelihood is higher but then you have to ask yourself what benefit is there of taking this into admin next March? What are existing lenders going to do with these assets, they want return and not assets, therefore it is also highly likely an agreement will be reached. Dyor
If Funding lands, how on earth will it bag anything? How massive will the dilution be? Or, how big the cost (they already pay 9% and 12%, with all the collateral pledged). Capital repayments due from the end of March, so the 'old' finance packages need to be re-negotiated.
It is highly likely that this will go into administration with the existing lenders taking all the Lake Way infrastructure and machinery leaving nothing for shareholders.
Be very careful and suspicious of those claiming this will 10 bag in days. You are being played.
BCI funding does shows, the funding is out there for this resource..time will tell of course.
Big money entering. Think we could see big moves. At least 3p today IMO
Afzal doesn’t look for 10 or 20%. He invests for multi multi baggers. Great to see him invest here. Think we could see at least 3p today
"Imagine if #SO4 gets a strong funding
This one just happened on Friday...
ASX-listed BCI Minerals on Friday announced that it had secured A$740-million in debt funding for the development of its Mardie salt and potash project, in Western Australia https://miningweekly.com/print-version/bci-secures-debt-funding-for-mardie-2021-10-15
"SO4 is a Risk/Reward punt
A strong funding and this could fly back into double digits
35p to 2p drop
At times you have to take these type of punts. Can turn into 5 Bagger within days"
https://twitter.com/AfzalValli/status/1450035283735552003
only down because of the funding
Obviously time will tell if the current buy price turns out to be cheap or not, if the finance is sorted soon as expected and the sp moves back to where it was a few months ago to over 40p then this is cheap but of course if it goes the other way not so much!
How much do you know about business?
Have you guys at least read prospectus?
Wasn't it about 20 years of life-time (NPV cashflow multiples below 1.5 m-cap) and given current mess-ups with:
- failed production technology (not giving useful/expected quality output they can sell),
- wrong/dysfunctional equipment they've spent millions on (had to be replaced)
- previous additional equity raise (well above initial plan)
- requirement for onboarding additional debt (under very harsh covid-related conditions - it's almost impossible to get money on favorable terms without predatory conditions these days for start-up projects) even before starting production at full scale (just to get there)
- debt being secured at significant discount vs assets (if it goes south - there's nothing left of equity) and assets are sitting in a middle of desert (not tradable at market value)
- poor track history on proper promised delivery by BoD as per above.
- high probability on either failure or additional equity raise (=significant dilution).
- low NPV discount rate (8%) applied on cash-flow valuation (accounting-wise might be fine but it's not risk-free project) when it was sold to investors (a bit misleading marketing if people don't understand much about how these things are calculated)
Considering all of this (and failure statistics for startups and AIM market in general) - NPV (at right rate taking account risks) can be put somewhere close to 100m+ AUD if they do manage to pull this off, there are other very likely outcomes: no-options take-over for pennies (like with Sirius), further dilution, administration/insolvency/liquidation - average weighted outcome isn't that bright tbh.
I get it what many here have bought-in (presumably "cheap") and trying to ramp-up but be at least realistic in line with actual business plans. It can play-out well and multibag - but there are intrinsic limits based on business fundamentals (and yeah - it indeed can go well above it due to frenzy effect and other like with gamestop' short squeeze).
I was thinking about taking position here but without financing sorted (under current harsh lending market environment and fragility of business SO4 is involved in) - it's wipe-out, doesn't fit my risk profile, pure gamble unless you do know some insights on their financial agreements (and trading on this info would've been subject of MAR).
1.5bill MC within 5 years here sounds great but I agree that there would likely be a buy out well before then, let’s just hope it turns into a huge bidding war!
42p would be very nice short term for sure, guess the recent delays haven’t helped though as obviously delays equate to cash burn, would like to think that your £2.75/£3.20 sp prediction will come to fruition but need to get the project back on track before those sort of figures can even be thought about but nothing wrong with your optimistic outlook!
Obviously depends when they confirm that the funding is secured, obviously have been a few little blips recently which is to be expected with this type of project, would like to think that 25p + could be seen before EOY but obviously that all depends on progress!
Yes Quantum, how long before divi starts being paid do you think? Like you say worth holding long term here for maximum gains sp/mc wise and the divi payments also!
Indeed, just a matter of patience at this point
Yes, once funding is sorted then the 15p + top ups should prove to be the right course of action hopefully!
to the ASX trading suspension come 20th October? Trading has been suspended for a good few weeks now so they have had plenty of time to sort out the refinancing
making rapid progress at its flagship sulphate of potash (SOP) project, Lake Way, in the Western Australian Goldfields.
The Perth-based company is aiming to develop a 245,000 tonnes per year sulphate of potash operation.
EBITDA is likely to be A$111mln per year and Lake Way would have one of the lowest operating costs for global SOP producers.
too big project need huge funding package
Indeed, like you say this could 50 bag quite easily very quickly but also could be worth very little! High risk high reward for sure!
Regarding EQT was a classic, could buy at 0.09p late 2019 early 2020 by Jan 2021 it hit 3p 30 bagger. Now 1.2p but still bagged 12 fold from lows. Worth the risk but don't put the house on this.
You could easily double or treble your money Bunsen overnight once the funding is confirmed, of the the negative posters will always try and scare holders saying they will end up with nothing, this is the kind of situation that them and their bosses live for! To be fair the outcome could be very poor from here, unlikely but you never know when it comes to AIM! On the plus side I’d the funding is secured under reasonable terms then 20p sp is back on the table straight away pretty much, it just comes down to which way you think things will go. GLA
https://www.miningweekly.com/print-version/bci-secures-debt-funding-for-mardie-2021-10-15