The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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I bought sng at 60p, then put 11.5k in sng on 17th july, sold at 219 and 221p on 20th july to celebrate my birthday. I'm holding £30k worth and buying more today ready for trial results, hoping luck strikes twice. 9.5k to over 100k in a year thanks to sng, novacyt and tils.
A really good thread. Thanks to all participants, particularly Matterhorn for starting with the facts.
Spinnaker
Scinv, US company Northwest Bio NWBO is running a p3 trial for the past 12 years and has a market cap of 1.5bn. Complete junk compared to SG
I think a few people on here including myself are getting slightly nervous now as we head into the result phases. Do we take some off the table or keep it on there.
The US P2 trial is currently only 200 participants so I can understand why they aren’t making a big fuss of SNG at the moment.
I suppose I’m just having one of those weeks with lack of news and also the medical community remain divided on interferon. You would have thought since COVID-19 started we would know if interferon works or not.
Gutted the Americans didn’t mention us today either on Dr F’s slide show too.
My take is that when he talked about 'this season' he meant it, and he had reason to believe it.
The later changes to the P2 protocol make it clear the company was hoping to add a pivotal arm.
We can only speculate on what went on in discussions with the regulators.
Some of us have held shares in Sng since February 2020 at the price of 14p/16p. I certainly didn't require Skinvs so called balanced approach. It appears it's his way or the highway.
Scinv - As someone who knows a little about what is involved in constructing an RNS statement to deliver to the market I think your criticisms are a tad misplaced.
RM's mandate is to grow and protect the share price whilst not divulging information that is either inflammatory or misleading to the market.
Each RNS will be scrutinised and vetoed by NED's, nomads and perhaps the house broker.
I've always found RM to be a very upfront and honest guy his media appearances have often filled in the blanks from the RNS statements, which has been much appreciated by many PI.
In a time of great volatility the company has not resorted to having to issue a Speeding Ticket RNS, most announcements have genuinely graced the market without leaks.
It's really refreshing to see an AIM Biotech being run in this manner.
Thanks scinv for the link, matterhorn for the summary and doc for the point.
Scinv if you're honestly posting to keep the board rational and evidence-based then would you please try continuing without all the insults and see how it goes? I understand your suspicion of closed groups, I'd normally share it. I think the main reason many folks moved to reddit was the toxicity here and AFAIK the moderation policy is no trolling, not no science. There has been a lot of useful info shared, both potentially positive and negative for the share. Though I think most of the important stuff gets posted here and on ADVFN as well.
If I post something wrong then please do explain what I've got wrong. I'm sure you'll concede you've made the odd error too. I think it's quite normal for shareholders to be enthusiastic about their holdings, yes sometimes the projections might get a bit optimistic, but surely that is the nature of investing. I'm here because I think this has a good chance of being successful and presumably you are too?
Scinv - They've been pretty clear about manufacturing.
Original funds went into getting essential low cost non perishable items into stock.
Second fund raise went into bringing on stream additional manufacturers, securing medical grade syringes, running manufacturing trials to ensure new suppliers meet quality. Intention was to eventually supply the later trials with product produced by Akron. I would not be surprised if Activ2 is using product from the USA hence why there was seemingly a long time between us all knowing we would be on Activ2 to actually the formal announcement.
He is also repeating what worked with AIDS
No, Scinv. What you have just explained makes a lot of sense. He is thinking longer term - and beyond just the now.
He has also served several presidents (at least 6, I believe) and knows how short-term their views tend to be, how even with a supportive president, their hands can still be tied by the houses of Congress. This is the perfect alignment of government support and immediate USA and world need to concentrate efforts on finding therapeutics.
Thx for the clarification on 'safety' Scinv.
@Doc – progression to phase III is based on efficacy as well, it’s just the interim analysis at day 14 & auto enrolment (not applicable to SNG001) which is not. But, I guess this is what you meant.
The importance of SG016HOME becomes so much more important now I think. Should the results for SG016HOME and ACTIV-2 phase II both be satisfactory we could potentially qualify for an EUA.
The reason why the phase III protocol is not yet published is because the Study committee was/is still in discussion with the FDA on the primary and secondary outcome measurements
https://fnih.org/sites/default/files/final/pdf/Protocol-activ-2-A5401-version3-dated12.22.20.pdf
I’ve listed a few facts from the master protocol to address a few points of discussion which came up in the past.
Note the phase III trial protocol for non-infused agents are still to be published.
1) Unblinded day 28 data (page 25)
Unblinded day 28 data will be provided to the DSMB and a small group from the company. The DSMB will advise the NIAID, trial sponsor, on the trial results who in turn will advise the TOC. The TOC in discussion with the company will decide whether the agent enters into phase III.
2) Transition into phase III (page 27)
Automatic enrolment into phase III after 50% of participants have their day 14 evaluations where at least one graduation criteria has been met only applies to infused agents and not SNG001 which is a non-infused agent.
3) The DSMB’s interim analysis focuses only on SAFETY and not efficacy (page 67)
Quote: ‘For non-infused agents, there will be an interim analysis of safety data for review by the DSMB when 50% of the planned phase II sample size has been followed to day 14’.
4) The following statement infers there may not be significant levels of production of SNG001 yet. (page 216)
Quote: ‘Participation in phase II evaluations of this agent will be restricted to select US sites, due to limited investigational agent/placebo supply.’
I doubt there'll be a limited supply of placebo although not impossible. The situation re SNG001 production may have changed since the protocol was updated last on 22 Dec 2020.