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As well being ex-dividend date, Oct 28th should also see an RNS "First Quarter Report to 30th September 2021" update. Ive got the feeling the share price will see greater volatility next week to the upside The golden cross signal soon to come should also attract price momentum buyers to this stock creating tailwind for the share price. Plenty more action to come.
12.56 post @Odysseus07 :)
@cautionyourblast
Thanks, I'll be sure to read that report (although as you reference, it could probably do with an update).
Wise words indeed regarding the bigger picture here.
@Velo
Thanks for this, very insightful. I've only been holding for a year or so and I didn't realise the Rh price had come so far in recent history.
Very interesting that before there was a sniff of Covid, on 1st Dec 2019, the price was sat at 6k and here we are in the midst of a global chip shortage with the price at ~14k.
A lot of people are talking about a 'recovery' in the price but at current levels, in context, it makes you wonder how much further there will be to go.
I certainly won't be anchoring to 30k as you mention!
If the shortage is resolved in H2 2022 then that would cover the entirety of FY 2022 for SLP. Then again there are obviously wildly varying opinions on how long this thing will last. It does bring the current Rh price into focus though - ie we've had two (and a bit) quarters of the situation now and the Rh price is pretty much at the same level as this time last year...
There she is, hey baby :)
Let's go baby, up over £1.10 this week. Boomtime :)
The Matthey PGM market report is the best place I've seen for insight into the underlying drivers of PGM supply/demand and thus deficit/surplus. The latest report is from May so somewhat pre-dates the chip bun fight (chip butty fight?) but is still worth a close read.
NOx targets will apparently continue to be tightened in the EU which can only drive demand.
Current SLP pricing looks very modest on current metrics (of course, we all know this, it's obvious) and also if one believes (1) ICE cars (including plug-in hybrids) are here for much longer than Torquil and Jocasta at the BBC would have us believe, (2) the global car market will continue to grow as middle classes in developing countries (India, China, Vietnam,, etc) move from two old wheels (or no wheels at all) to four new ones, (3) nations continue to tighten NOx emissions criteria.
Runaway inflation caused by the profligacy of central bank nutters could blow-up the whole thing but we might have more to worry about than SLP if that comes to pass.
SLP remains my biggest position and, of course, it remains a major punt on the PGM basket price.
In the company's recent report, I suspect that ever-sensible and cautious Stuart Murray will have said to Jaco "stick some wildly-varying price forecasts in the presentation". Mgmt is keen to remind us that we are at the mercy of the basket price and they are totally right to do so.
Hi CheddarBob,
Was looking further at Rhodium prices (JM site) back-history today (as there’s been a couple of price “crashes” over the years in Rhodium).
Others might offer a view on the future forecast prices of Rh, but it’s worth keeping in mind, how swift the record increases have been for comparison purposes.
SLP commenced recovery from a submarine-like dive in its SP from when it launched as an IPO on the stock market back in 2011 (as did Rh) and didn’t commence recovery of a crashed SP until the 2016 era.
And then performed spectacularly from that day, to this year’s summer without seemingly pausing for breath.
Rhodium too, was in footstep all the way, as SLP’s SP rose through the years. Both have exponentially rocketed in the last year or two.
In particular as you ask about the future of Rhodium, the rise in its price was equally dramatic.
By Jan 2016 Rh was down to just $625 per ounce.
The following year by Aug 2017 it had risen to 1,000
By Jan 2020 it had charged up to 6,000
Barely a year and a quarter later March 2020, it had exploded up to 13,800
From there it flew to an ATH in May this year to just under 30,000 !!!
So, I’m not confident of offering a counterview to any observers of Rhodium. And looking at that low of 625 back in 2016, it shows how volatile a situation, things can be with Rhodium.
If one “anchors” to the ATH of 29,800 back in May, might that be a dangerous assumption to do so?
This from a PGM commodities broker:
Rhodium prices traded below $15,000 per troy ounce, after rebounding from a 13-month low of $11,250 hit on September 16th, as traders took a breather following months of decay in the metal’s price. Still, rhodium prices have slumped 51% since it touched an all-time high of $29,800 in late March, on concerns from the automotive industry, which constitutes roughly 90% of its demand. Global carmakers have either slowed production levels or temporarily shut down plants due to intense supply bottlenecks, namely a worldwide shortage of semiconductor chips. Heraeus Precious Metals, one of the world’s largest platinum group metal refiners, expects these chip shortages to potentially last until 2Q 2022.
hey cheddar. I'm a newbie at SLP and PGM prices. But i have done some research and it seems that H2 2022 onwards that PGM is set to increase over the next 5 years. Especially once the microchip supply is back established.
Now, i dont know specifically for Rh within the PGM, but I invested based on rising PGM prices after H2 2022 and the great dividend and low PE.
But, if microchip supply re-established and sales of new cars goes up again post-COVID tehn Rh should increase?
Hello all, I've been a spectator here for a few months and have very much enjoyed the quality of posting and (sometimes) differing views on the company/industry.
It's also been a useful place to come for a pep talk when the share price looks a little grim! (thanks stoodio, Luna)
I finally got a chance to watch the annual results presentation at the weekend and was just wondering what you all made of the Rh price forecasts included in there (at approx 30 mins)? They seem to vary wildly (esp SBG) but the one thing they do have in common is a declining price over the next few years.
Obviously a forecast is a forecast and I wont be pinning any hopes or fears on specific numbers (2 of the 3 seem to be implying that current prices are the top), but it was more the overall theme - seems to be at odds with a number of the bullish posters on here.
Do you think this is simply more evidence of the pessimism driven by assumed EV adoption in the future, that many on here have claimed to be unrealistic?
Any thoughts appreciated, thanks.