Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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I'd like to see the note. Tbh I always quite like NX so I think I'm tempted here to roll into the deal
As I see it we have a way of getting good exposure to NX's potential as well here at a cheap entry due to the premium paid to us
UBS CUTS STAGECOACH PRICE TARGET TO 115 (125) PENCE - 'BUY' - UBS are basically assuming the deal is going through and the synergy savings gives an equivalent 115p share price - that is how I am reading this - so around a 20pct upside - I read an article in the Guardian saying the deal is likely to go through and personally I think it will - so a long term hold for me until at least 115p then a reassessment - all in my opinion of course - gla and dyor etc.
the gap between the NX offer and the stagecoach bid has tightened in the last few days which suggests there is more optimism that the deal will materialise
To keep and eye on this share now you have to look at NEX too... How exciting.
DANL90, you are correct, I got that wrong, hands up.
Not invested in this share, however if you come across this scumbag beware. See his post below. Just further clarification, make it easy to check should anyone wish to do so.
castle2012
Posted in: IAG
Posts: 3,383
Price: 158.10
No Opinion
Deramping explained. 06 Jan 2021 22:46
Stephen: Well all I can say is this , My agenda and you can read back my posts from last year . I said many times; I wanted to get in at the lowest price possible.
I achieved it here and in 2 other stocks . And I'm very very happy with my average.
My strategy paid off.
Many on here buy and sell daily and good luck to them .Others average down ( One mouth piece in particular who is now banned )
That's their strategy.
CHRI55 . Not everybody's only yours. I just love the way you contradict yourself all the time and take us for fools. Very amusing.
CHRI55 I did have you filtered but most of the time it doesn't work.
CHRI55. finger on the buy button several times, but think this is heading towards 800p. You posted this on the Go Ahead BB ten days ago but now say their results next week will soothe the market. Its hard to keep up with your ramps and de-ramps
All they need now is drivers..... drivers..... and dare I say drivers....and stop the haemorrhaging of employees of all grades leaving......
All the time the Stagecoach price is lower then NEX *.36 I take it we are best to hold the SGC shares encase of merger
We should be sitting in that price bracket yes. I think sgc was 1.70 at one point before there troubles.
In the thick of the pandemic this was sitting at around 100-120 range. What’s stopping this getting back there shortly term? Now Beverly thing is opening up for good
Ah man, gutted I missed out on this one. Really didn’t see it coming… is it too late???
Well done for all who are holding?
No that’s incorrect
It wouldn’t stay the same for stagecoach shareholders if they negotiated it up
Easy example. Say the combined business makes £100m profit
Atm as a stagecoach group of shareholders we’d be getting £25m of that in the future
If we negotiate up we’d get move of that in the future
You need to consider the value of the combined group. Which is why your point isn’t correct and why NX price goes too (as the £100m will have synergies to come)
Atm we get 25% of the future pot. If we negotiate more you can see you gain as more cash in future runs to stagecoach shareholder (by the fact you have more NX shares)
Not that simples.
If SGC board negotiate a higher percentage then the NEX share price will fall accordingly and the benefit to SGC shareholders will remain the same.
It is a merger not a takeover.
Yeah there will always be a difference (that the 0.36 NX sits above the stagecoach price) but this reflects the risk the deal doesn’t happen ie leaves a bit for an investor who wants in on the deal but others willing to cash out now
There are a lot of reasons why this deal might not happen. I think with Tories in and levelling up they will champion this as long as assurances are given re depots and services etc
If the SP is more than 0.36 x Nex than I’d sell SGC to buy NEX. Vice versa when SGC is less than 0.36 Nex I’d sell Nex to buy SGC. This should be good profit.
Stop thinking about it in terms of pence and solely think of it in terms of NX shares
The offer is 0.36 NX shares per stagecoach share
When the deal completes you will not get a penny. You will get NX shares
If NX is £4 you get 0.36 NX shares
If NX is £2 you get 0.36 NX shares
All that can happen now is
- stagecoach as for some element in cash or a cash top up (later more common where there is a divi already due)
- stagecoach could argue they are worth more in the combined group so 0.36 goes up
- NX stock falls so the deal isn’t accretive ie there will be a 0.x where the deal is dilutive you NX holders despite the synergies
But think of this only in terms of NX shares
Still undervalued IMO despite rise. I am a holder (in at average of 74p, small profit, but hanging on. We know the founders sold a chunk at 90p. Might see some profit taking tomorrow, but think this should approach 100. GLA.
I think if this goes ahead it will be great for long term holders like myself. A market cap of just under 2 billion will have us back on the footsie 250 or 350 and will help stop any hostile takeover attempts. With cost effective cutting bigger profits the dividend should return even bigger tempting more institutional investors. It seems just win win win to me.
But the offer isn't 80p. It's now 86p and will keep changing as the NEX sp changes. If they negotiate it is the 0.36 that will need to change (or the structure of the deal).
They will have to re calculate the price when they put in a formal offer and giving the price will be higher than 80 pence buy then
I've been holding Stagecoach since 40p. My take is they don't just have lucrative state contracts, which pay, irrespective of passenger count, they are pushing ahead with a net zero emission goal. These factors and their strong liquidity (£875m as of June this year) give it a strong position to negotiate with National Express. National Express know this, too and have set about their own vision for ESG (Environmental-Social-Governance) score so why not bring Stagecoach's contracts including school bus routes into their operations.
Agree with the others stating National Express was 320p+ so so once they return to this price, we should Stagecoach back to 115p+ It's not if, it's just a matter of when.