The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Agree, that overall this is a good long term hold but I revisited the numbers for the decline in production and they didn’t add up do something is amiss. I’m sure this will be explained on Monday unless I’m miscalculating. Tunisia is the big one here but again I reiterate that the mcap should be higher. Seller has seen an opportunity to sell this week and again today. GLA
I've clearly mis-read the short-term progress I believed was in progress! Of course the content of Mr. Auld's Monday presentation is now important to all serious holders!
Effective and timely implementation of the defined improvement projects is now extremely important!
With this stock being so oversold, for the patient who are prepared to hold for management to deliver the improvement projects, the upside on their implementation is still considerable!
GLTA NK.
Link to register for Jeffery SAuld's Monday presentation again:
https://eur04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.investormeetcompany.com%2Fserinus-energy-plc%2Fregister-investor&data=04%7C01%7CCBRACKMAN%40serinusenergy.com%7Cd018bc11a8d54acf64c908d8eac3a204%7C7ae3c2fca90e43f99ffae33289668a8f%7C0%7C0%7C637517474202234829%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0&sdata=vryQZ0eoOeBvrgNbz5AaLjF33XzHptUYtx2EqvRbFYg%3D&reserved=0
I was alerted to SENX by Charlie1984. Having since done my own Due Diligence/research in some detail, I'm convinced it's a real gem with considerable upside!!
I have concluded the share price is currently ery depressed because of;
1) It's earlier massive $33.7m debt (taken on when oil was $110/brl),
2) Uncertainty due to it's inability to make full interest repayments without default.
3) Depressed oil prices in 2019 & early 2020, and
4) Too much exploration drilling (heavy expenditure) by previous management, without regard for revenue.
Those factors resulted in the shares being grossly oversold!
But Jeffery Auld (ex-Goldman Sachs - brought in to turn the Co. around), has changed all of that!! Just look at this man's CV!!
The opportunity:
* Debt now renegotiated and the balance sheet recapitalised. The Co. is now debt free and has cash in the Bank!!
* The Bank which extended the loan, has now taken a 9% stake in the company. That's amazing and very positive!!
* The Co. has doubled output and now has very strong positive cash-flow.
* Production has grown since Q2 2020 and is continuing to grow.
* The Co. is now implementing 4 high impact low cost simple "Just Go Do" output increase projects. These target an output increase of 5,670 barells of oil equivalent/day [booe/d] (that's an additional 200% of output!!) over the next 18 months to 2 yrs.
* Their lifting costs are just $8.96/booe/d.
* The Co. has very low G&A costs!!
IMO THIS SHARE PRICE IS ONLY GOING ONE WAY!!
A great recommendation Charlie1984, thank you!!
FWIW, here are my price target calculations;
Note: I've applied a very heavy & conservative Discounted Cash Flow rate of 40% pa. So that reduces the target price by 60% to cater for the 18 months time frame for implementing the output increase projects.
So in today's values the target is:
Say 7,500 booe/d of output x 300 producing days/yr x $40/brl profit x a P/E of 10 x 0.70 US$ conversion to £'s x 0.40 (DCF effect of 100% - 60% = 40%)
So a Market Cap in today's value of £252 million is implied.
There are 1,140,660,629 shares in issue
This suggests a target price of 22.1p NOW.
IMO SENEX's price will re-rate once investors;
1) See further increased output being demonstrated and
2) Understand the upside potential i.e when the "message gets out"!! This stock is currently "under the radar"
Others on this Board have flagged-up that Q1 2021 results are expected today (Thursday 13th). And also that Jeffery Auld is making a live Presentation with Q&A's at 5.30pm Monday 17th May. Others have also said, and I agree, it seems very unlikely he'd do that live session if the results were naff!
For anyone interested to register to attend the Presentation, the link's here;
https://eur04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.investormeetcompany.com%2Fserinus-energy-plc%2Fregister-investor&data=04%7C01%7CCBRACKMAN%40serinusenergy.com%7Cd018bc11a8d54acf64c908d8eac3a204%7C