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2000 negative posts? Have a look at the earlier ones. You can see they are positive.
I am not going to engage in this constant mud-slinging. I am going to keep posting my point of view and hope for some constructive engagement. Sure criticise my take on things, that's fine, but do it in a civil and logical way (if you can).
The reason I don't post on other shares on this site is because I only have a few other UK listed investments (Adriatic Metals, Cornish Metals and Spectra Systems). I invest much more in non-UK listed stocks, mainly on the TSX. I find much more constructive dialogue on Canadian boards where these stocks are concerned and also Twitter.
If in doubt...… use the filter button :)
Yes shaky over 2k negative posts on this share alone, do you actually have any other investments
Can you stop with the appeal to authority non-arguments? I could just as easily say, why is the share price at odds with 3 analysts estimates? Who is right? I am getting a lot of my assessment FROM said analysts. BNP for one say at the current time that SDX will generate negative FCF in 2023 because Morocco production stops. I didn't state that, they did.
Do you have your own opinion or do you simply repeat what analysts say? The analyst assessments are based on exploration success which as we all know isn't guaranteed. I am looking at what is known and realistic now.
ok but why is your assessment so at odds with 3,not just one,analysts ?
Littlened, I want to see a use of capital that can kind of guarantee production. Say an acquisition. Of course they've left that a bit too late now given the oil price but perhaps they can pick up another gas asset in Egypt (given ****ty fixed gas price) or some oil asset off a major looking to divest (but they don't have the cash or future cashflow at the moment for much at the moment).
They're painted in to a bit of a corner. Morocco production stops dead in 2023 (I am sure they will find more and stave off the end there for another year or something) and SD production starts declining in 2023. If they do an acquisition now (which they don't have the money for and can't get debt for) they have no cash and can't explore and open themselves up to bankruptcy if something goes wrong somewhere. in 2023 they will maybe have US$20m or so and maybe **** all production (probably not but at the moment, without further exploration success that's what the reserves indicate). They will have to spend money on exploration to continue production but then they can't buy anything.
I don't really know what they can do other than continue with current strategy, but I am not in charge of the company and don't have knowledge of what might be possible.
Luckcounts, you are not factoring in government take. SDX have a 50% WI and then of the 50% net to them the government take circa 50%. So entitlement production is more like 25%. It sucks but that is Egypt for you.
Shakey tell us your strategy then ?
I want to see something of substance and I want to see a bit of a change of strategy.
Come on guys. This isn't going to move the needle. It's accretive and worth doing but it's going to take up two years basically to eek an extra 1500bopd (maybe 400bopd entitlement production) from this asset. We're gonna need something more to get us out of this rut.
Prophet of doom returns
Mona Lot,shakey ?
*if
Lol ~80bopd entitlement production of the well hits and produces at 300bopd gross.
We'd better hope these prospects come in.
Regarding Morocco pipeline value, if your company goes bust then you can only sell assets for firesale prices and what exactly would one with such a pipeline in Morocco at the moment as there isn't any gas nearby apart from SDX's small wells.
LC......Appreciated.
Sorry 2023 CAPEX forecast is US$11.2m (made up of US$1.2m PP&E and US$10m exploration expense). Hopefully there is going to be the need for huge CAPEX programmes, particularly in Morocco. BNP don't seem to think there will be in 2022 and 2023 but who knows what this company will try to do.
After looking at the latest BNP report I've now worked out why they are forecasting massive drop in revenue in 2023 and transition to negative free cash flow in 2023 onwards. They are forecasting essentially zero production in Morocco in 2023 onwards because reserves will have run out by then. South Disouq production forecast also starts declining in 2023 onwards.
This is now a seat of the pants operation. The market is valuing this company like it doesn't have a future and will continue to draw on cash as it tries and fails to find more reserves. That may or may not happen. I do expect them to find more gas in Morocco, they have a good track record there.
Each year of production in Morocco at the current rate and current gas price (which may be revised up for any new customers - not that they have the gas at the moment to really attract anyone) is worth about US$20m in post-tax free cashflow net to the company. It's hugely valuable and another year of production would transform 2023 FCF from slightly negative to about US$20m positive which would be added to the balance sheet and leave SDX with around US$40m in cash on the balance sheet by YE2023 (although that assumes that BNP's forecast for 2023 CAPEX is accurate at US$10m).
Patiance now thats a good one, been here about five or six years,and watched my hard earned flush away,
research-tree.com
https://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/sdx-energy-plc/research/exane-bnp-paribas-sponsored-research/updating-oil-prices-no-change-to-valuation-range/74_552781
Patience Furey,updated note from ParisBas confirms their valuation,100% upside minimum.
Yip all them buys and it went up a Wapping .80, if it was sells we would be sitting at 7p
Yes I agree,lots of buys and very few sales over the last week
Maybe, certainly something afoot, methinks...