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Chester,
Many thanks for the reply and explanation.
The 60p though is still unsupported, where did that come from?
By my calculations it COULD (if successful) be worth 41p by 2029 (NPV=6p).
This is positive - the current SP could be supported by MODI1 ovarian cancer treatment alone.
As far a market cap goes, even if we were to regain the value we peaked in 2012, given the dilution since then, we would not be 60p but just 25p. Maybe this is a realistic target?
Ruck, Sorry for the delay in replying ,
Inanaco was earlier discussing the value of a successful MODI1 in just one cancer, Ovarian.
So when he said that 60p or achieving current MCap of £279m he was commenting on the fact that on a successful trial outcome in just one condition £279m was not that much of a stretch considering the potential market value.
Now, if you still are unable to joint the dots for yourself I do suggest that you refrain from these lines of attack because it is making you look ever so slightly 'out of sink'.
Chester.
Inan,
“Ruck start at Konars post ... ref the sp movement“
OK, I looked at Konars post he mentions 30p and down.
Only you mention 60p.
He doesn’t try and pass off inflated market cap figures.
You take 60p x current share in issue to get £278M.
Reality: all time high £117M, current £25M
what has that got to do with mine or Konars post ........... both directed at the SP ... ?
infact if you are going to apply it that way .,.. Konar mentioned many numbers .. why have you not transferred those to Mcap ... rather than SP as Konar used
the Mcap will always have a Number .... relative to SP and share in issue ... or is this something you have discovered ...
Mind you 5 recs, suggest 5 did not know .............
For those interested in fact rather than fiction....
The highest market cap Scancell has ever been was on 11/10/2012 when it closed at 60p. There were 194M shares in issue at the time making the market cap £117M
Of course, this was just a single day so a more realistic valuation would be the 28 day moving average.
Using this criteria, the highest mcap was on 14/12/2012 at £95M
Ruck start at Konars post ... ref the sp movement .. my post is a direct reply ... you are taking stuff out of context twisting to your agenda to try and get a "brownie point" ... which as it happens has no value anyway ..
Chester,
If you understand what he meant please explain it to me as I don't.
Do you what the 60p refers to?
Ruck,
I read inans post and knew exactly what he meant. Your just twisting words to cause some kind of debate.
In trying to pick at a thread you are coming across as non to bright.
I suggest you think before you post.
Chester.
Inan,
You pluck a very short-lived intraday figure from eight years ago and multiply it by the current number of shares in issue and come up with a market cap of £278M. The implication is that Scancell have been valued at this at some point which is grossly misleading as they have never in their history been anything like that. I gave you the benefit of the doubt saying it may be an oversight, but your reluctance to admit this suggests it is a deliberate ploy to mislead.
Happy that we agree to differ and that is what BBs about.
No doubt in the fullness of time we will see which view is the more accurate reflection of the future.
GLA
Ivy, well each and every point has been discussed many a time, again not one IMHO.
And you say............""I really do not want this SP lower but want to see evidence of why would be a good reason to buy more at the moment.Really don’t see why this appears so difficult to understand.""
Well you told us you were lucky to have sold at a high, not so long ago, and you bought (just in case) some for your trading pot just after I sold at 6.4p. Again,
""I really do not want this SP lower but want to see evidence of why would be a good reason to buy more at the moment.Really don’t see why this appears so difficult to understand."""
Well I can, clearly, as Bermuda says we beg to differ!!!!
you are again Posting as if you are a Fund Manager ............ and you are thinking for them ...
you are not .. Ivy
not an oversight ....
we did not have avidmab in 2012 ... or a moditope product entering he clinic ..
and i used the current issued shares ... not what was issued in 2012 ...
your posts are really getting pathetic to be honest
C7/Inanaco,
I really am just putting it out for discussion.
Are you really saying that the climate for raising money In the Covid/ Pharma space was nit much better 2 months ago than now.
As I said they may announce non dilutive funding which would be great but if they have to place then personally I thought the climate was better Q2 than Q3 but again happy to be wrong.
What I mean by Diggle is they imo will not want to go over 29.9% so limiting how much they can go for considering the amount we may need to progress trials on all fronts not merely keep the lights on.
Of course I am not a fund manager but have you spoken to any or met them at these events or indeed their “ advisers”. Do you really think they get Oncology Professors like Diggles did to buy into likes of SCLP hardly.
So they need to be convinced/ persuaded in a clear concise way about the future here not bamboozled with detailed talk of how the immune system responds.
Remember in a previous funding round RG said 18/20 institutions invested well how many are still here.If they really were that convinced of the science I suggest most of them but I hardly think that is the case given the SP action.
What they look for is likes of BoD participation or clear evidence of external validation like deals etc.
If that is not evident then of course they will be less willing .Of course they can cover that risk by negotiating a low placing price and / or warrants etc.
I really do not want this SP lower but want to see evidence of why would be a good reason to buy more at the moment.Really don’t see why this appears so difficult to understand.
Inan,
I’m not getting excited just trying to understand your comment....
“ 460 m shares in issue .. x 60p is still only a Mcap of £279m .................”
I know we did hit 60p in 2012 but there were significantly fewer shares in issue than 460 so your market cap of £279 is rather misleading. I’m sure it was just an oversight on your part
Ruck gets excited again but forgets his reading Glasses ..
next point ............... ""Diggles are limited as to how much they can buy""
can you please explain that ??
“ 460 m shares in issue .. x 60p is still only a Mcap of £279m .................”
Last time I looked, the SP was 5.4p - market cap of £25m.
How did we get 60p?
Ivy are you a Fund Manager ?
"""Although Diggle did lots of DD last time and that was great other potential institutional investors will not be prepared to put in the same effort so need to be convinced on a fund manager basis."""
""" potential institutional investors will not be prepared to put in the same effort """
how do you know ???
"will not be" is very strong
Agree Chester.
Ivy..............."".Unless they announce some non dilutive funding then they need to raise soon.I really hope they have not missed the golden opportunity of 2 months ago when the sector was red hot."""
""Raising money for trials that could not take place for oncology 2 months ago was hot"".................Really??
Morning Konar,
Very much agree.
It does not matter whether you,me or any other poster understands the science the only people that matter are potential investors and they need to believe it is good enough to lead to deals and monetisation.
Unless they announce some non dilutive funding then they need to raise soon.I really hope they have not missed the golden opportunity of 2 months ago when the sector was red hot.
Although Diggle did lots of DD last time and that was great other potential institutional investors will not be prepared to put in the same effort so need to be convinced on a fund manager basis.
So the message needs to be clear and not complex and imo CH lacks a bit of charisma which again imo will not help.
I don’t think they will go down the primary bid route and Diggles are limited as to how much they can buy and of course the BoD have never shown a willingness to buy in the past,
Anyone observed the strange price action this morning so any thoughts as to what lies behind it welcome.
Happy to be proved wrong on any of above.
very poor one sided post .... however i accept that is your opinion ...
all i will say is "missing" from your post is Hurdles .. which have been overcome
the Best predication in the world on time scales involving "cutting edge innovation" when you are doing things never been done before ... is extremely difficult
so lets apply that .......... Name One Hurdle Scancell has "FAILED" to overcome ?
Nothing has changed by the way on how i look at the SP from 6p to 60p and back again ... the science presented IMHO commands higher ...
we will see next year .. if we overcome Covid issues with the NHS and Trials .. my own thoughts are they are scared of what comes next ... The country cannot afford indefinite lockdown
460 m shares in issue .. x 60p is still only a Mcap of £279m .................
perspective
Yes, they need to eliminate Coronavirus so cancer trials can get underway in a safer world.
Also they can build a time machine and go back 3 years to convince the FDA not to be so picky on the Ichor device.
Or even further back and stop all the wasted cancer vaccine failures that meant SCIB1 became unattractive.
Hindsight is not what is needed here, what we need is this pandemic to be defeated so Scancell can be allowed to proceed.
Chester.
before i say this, i want to state as a matter of fact that i have neither sold nor plan to buy/sell shares. I have my holding and that is not changing any time soon.
That said - Inanaco - i seem to remember you making the exact same arguments about the strength of the science supporting the share price at much higher prices... "It won't go down to 30p...20p... 15p.. 10p.." (and that's not an exact quote before you go asking me to point to specific examples - i am paraphrasing)
My point being, is that great science doesn't always result in great marketed products. Scancell is a shining example of that. Half finished projects; not following through with additional information after making announcements; raising money to fund trials that never materialise; permanently slipping timetables... all these things have eroded the confidence of the market and the SP moves accordingly.
Scancell have had years and many millions of share holder money to prove the efficacy of their science - they still haven't. The board need to be doing a much better job in this regard - IMO!
“ 1. Do you understand the value of just ovarian cancer ? ”
I make it 41p/share by 2029.
NPV =6p