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Put simply that period of time was an existenal threat to the business in common with the rest in sector, so NO passengers. Currently they are greatly reduced, but there are at least some.
And i certainly think the EU threatening operators licenses as part of its strong arm negiotiating tactic was most certainly a dark cloud on the horizon.
Ezj went and obtained an Austrian operators license if memory serves to try and preserve its business.
But the level of passenger reduction is miles apart.
Perhaps 10% max back then, compared to 80% now.
In fact, through Summer 19, the SP moved between 8.30 and high 10's. And now we're in high 11's?? To my mind that can only make sense if a) all competition, Easy included fails and disappears, and b) COVID disappears after Xmas. Neither of those is likely to happen IMO.
That'll be down to all the guff about brexit removing markets and the general election affecting the sector sp's in general.
Nothing to do with passenger numbers at the time, just the potential threat of no flights due to the UK/ Eu gamesmanship.
So given we are in a similar situation i.e. reduced passengers (but for a different reason) id suggest the share price should indeed be similar.
The SP is at the same level as Oct/Nov last year when no one had heard of COVID and Ryan was running a full and busy schedule, firing on all cylinders and there was barely a dark cloud on the horizon.
How can the SP be at the same level today?
Berni you are probably right with your post, there does seem to be an element of 'last man standing' built into the rya price, amongst other things, helping to keep it up. Its all to do with timescales though i would suggest with regards to your investement period.
As you say, wobbles with lockdowns but strong recovery when things return to more normal. So depends on individual invester style realy. Oppertunities for both long and short currently.
John, that, to me, the SP looks overpriced. It is remarkably resilient, so credit for that, but I can't help thinking that the next announcement of figures / trading will not be pretty.
Long term, (i.e. much later in 2021) of course we all see recovery. But that is too long term for me.
that is the shared conundrum for the whole sector, not just rya, isnt it. I suppose we shall see, at least they will have learned a few pointers from the previous one. therya world doesnt just revolve around france and germany though, and it doesnt look to be causing any sp issues here as yet. Are the shorters brave enough to have a dabble?
With lockdowns now in place in France, and soon to be in other countries, how is Ryanair going to maintain even the barest of flight schedules? No one is going on holiday, no one is flying on business, and in some countries (France) you cannot even leave the house. It is highly likely there will still be various types of lockdown in place over Xmas, thus ruling out festive flying too.
And ski season? Forget it.