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@Spero : from the AGM Q&A
"In March, we experienced a fall of ground
in a high-grade stope which was our only
source of ore and expected to contribute
significantly to revenue."
Take from that what you will. I would expect the "only source of ore" to "contribute significantly to revenue". I might be missing something.
Afternoon all, Cornish please correct me if wrong, but I believe that the actual extraction from the stope / mine face is a four part process, and therefore having a minimum of four means that there is always one in production (continual extraction of Ore to the surface) , therefore having 6 to 7 is mitigation for future events such as a stope collapse.
Also consider that going from only 1 stope ( in Q1 and part Q2) to say 4 during Q3 is going to increase production by that multiple and probably hence Toby's confidence in clearing the hedge at the beginning of Q4.
Happy to be corrected if i have explained this incorectly... have a great day all.
hmm, thought it was two, but happy to be corrected - thanks Dodkins.
Given that a collapsed stope (and subsequent financing fears) caused the share price to drop from 64p to 25p, do we think new stopes becoming available will be announced in Operational Update RNS?
@Spero : "At the time of the stope collapse earlier this year, we only had two stopes available. "
I don't think this is true. At the time of the collapse we only had ONE working stope, so production completely halted AFAIK (we had gone from zero working stopes to one then back to zero).
We now have 2 working stopes so we are already more resilient than we were then, with new stopes opening up soon in Block 6. The last RNS said we are 100m from a new stope face so new production areas should be available very soon so we should be up to 3 working stopes at that point, again, AFAIK.
Thanks for the intelligent answers much better than the norm on here, How many personal does it take to run a stope and do they have to hire more, and one more Q would they have to train personal, or are they ready on the shelf to pick up. As you can tell I know nothing about mining.
city of london not in london did not kwn
Thanks DJG - good question.
The implications of the stope collapse were the impact on production in previous months, which materialised, hence the depressed share price as a result of this issue.
The share price has factored in the stope collapse and the team responded with resolving it and opening up more stopes so that the future potential risk of a further stope collapse is less (if at all) problematic on production.
In the event that a stope collapse risk did materialise again, which is entirely feasible, we know we will have 5, 6, 7 stopes open before end of this year to mitigate / avoid this so that's IMO a managed risk now.
If any further unforeseen risks impact production, this could impact on RMMs ability to meet the hedge quantity in this year. However I'd assess as low probability and low impact, given anticipated grades, recovery, tonnage etc for the remainder of the year.
This was backed up by Tony B confirming they expect to hit target this year. Ultimately he is accountable for this and will be judged on its delivery, or failure of its delivery. As a turnaround specialist I am not sure he will want to set false expectations.
On balance in the (IMO) unlikely event we do not hit production and thus the agreed hedge arrangements ; RMM have a very good relationship with the off taker who as in previous years would in all likelihood carry over any shortage into the next year. With no penalties.
Nethertheless, RMM are valued low because of these risks, and not in spite of them. This is why they offer a very good risk to reward atm IMV.
Clearly there are risks. There are risks in any business. Especially mining. I can name a number of companies who make no cash and are valued much higher without even a proven resource. Id suggest they carry much higher risk and lower reward. That's just my view.
Overall, its a personal decision to identify, assess and decide if the risks are worth the potential rewards. Its like any business case, their needs to be an investment appraisal.
Some will decide the risks are too high. Some will decide they are acceptable. Investing is a personal choice, but doesn't need to be made personal.
IMO being confident here is not being in denial of the risks. Its simply accepting them on balance with the reward.
Clearly everyone has differing risk appetites, buying averages, target prices and strategies. This means, depsite RMM being only one company, EVERYONES perspective and appraisal here will (rightly) need to be different.
Its a paradox - people can have differing views but yet still be right in line with their own situation/position etc. Its not necessary to prove being right, or gain concensus.
ATB
well said Djg amazing to have you on board good that some of ramper seeing the risk.. but with debt around them well that could end badly. but I hope not. to be honest
At the time of the stope collapse earlier this year, we only had two stopes available. The copper produced from the collapsed stope was supposed to fund the redevelopment work over the last few months - hence the $2million loan + guarantee of further funding from Riverfort (only if required).
To avoid this situation in future, Rambler are aiming to have six or seven stopes operational by year end. We are approx 25 days away form reaching three zones. I'm not sure how these zones map to stopes, but hopefully it will mean we're well on the way to having multiple stopes running. We were back to two stopes the last time the company updated us on the subject.
first time cornish says facts and risks amazing to see cornish true gentleman today
so this can happen anytime any place in mining, I am glad to be retired and on the surface!
Thanks as always Cornish
No its nothing to do with flooding. The ore and surrounding rock mass is not a monolithic piece of rock, there are lots of joints and faults in it so if one piece drops out it can cause a chain reaction with lumps of rock falling out of the hanging wall (roof). In drives and other permanent openings that are accessed by people there is rock support installed (rock bolts, steel sets, timber packing and shotcrete) to prevent ground falling. It's not possible to do this in an open stope, so it's always a risk.
I would think most on here will be doing alright if we hit 60p soon, I will be very happy to be in profit, dose anyone know the reason for stope a collapse, I know nothing about mining, could it be the flood waters?
Thanks