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Hey Much,
yes it's all very interesting, maybe a bit of dilution, maybe a percentage given to PMO partner to sweeten the deal, but this would no doubt be for further free carry to first oil. So if we make it to first oil the elephant in the room may be, as now, there is a lot of acreage RKH hold that currently is valued at a big fat ZERO.
Now how does that come into the mix once you have development drilling underway and first oil looming; then loads of cash washing about; a multitude of prospects a stones throw away and a rig looking for work close by after SL is ready to flow!
Very exciting times if UKEF sign off, it will be thick and fast after that IMHO.
LTT
Hey Surfit and yes of course, all sorts of dynamics that we just can't factor in such as a reduction due to a farm in. And I am of course presuming the team from Catcher Helier again this time in the South Atlantic.
However,I haven't factored in Sealion Phase 2 which we have a higher % of and takes production much much higher.
Much
Hey Much, there is a caveat to your post regarding SP potential and that being: more shares and or less % of SL.
Either or both of which could happen from an addtional farm in, requirement to raise cash (could use the loan from PMO agreement secured from PMO...IF PMO can still supply/service that original agreement?).
I agree there is greay potential but factors along the way always to consider.
Especially with the 12 + 1 Monkeys at the helm.
I can mostly trust PMO to deliver ( if financed) and if they secure the correct contractors, who inturn do not have to much on their books by time of start (quality of engineering/project support), securing correct vessels for the location, service and supply...all to bring the project on in time and budget...so a few factors to consider.
Still, thats getting ahead of the current issue of our 2000 AD comic
Good and informative post though, thank you.
Rgds Sft
for the wider audience to get the real picture you should stop posting your BS immediately Nigoil
NIgoil, you buying more under 15p again today? you have plenty of time
What I mean is, hopefully the market will overlook RKH for a while after UKEF and FID so I have time to buy into a more certain future, which is why we are hovering around 14/15p.
Many including the bigger players are just not interested in a gamble, for them just wait and see, once some of the major risks are off the table, they will fill there boots at 25p, then most likely they will have an exit target of XX months to 75p. This is where private investors like ourselves who are less averse to risk can reap bigger rewards getting in lower and holding for longer.
LTT
To be honest after we get UKEF sign off and the initial bout of buying, I am hoping I can still get an ISA allowances full for 20/21 in April under 50p, will be happy to forget about them for 3/4 years because with PMO getting a partner and some free carry, there could be little to no dilution at first oil.
Of course we will have a share of production costs and be paying back any financing, but with a 3rd player involved and project underway I see no issue for RKH to obtain finance at a much cheaper rate than offered by PMO. So even with all that there will be a heck of a lot of money left over.
Suppose the big question is just will RKH get taken out before then for a couple of quid?
But the above all depends on UKEF which looks all the more positive with election result. Fingers crossed.
LTT
Hey Gozzie.
After 8 years of waiting the market has given up and there have been question marks around whether Premier can finance the development of Sealion. We are completely dependent on them.
Many of us beg to differ with Zama sold and Export Guarantee finance the final piece in the jigsaw puzzle, we should get confirmation in the next few months then it will be lift off,
Re your question regarding value now, there are twice as many shares in issue now than there were then as we bought out FOGL in an all share transaction.
Absolutely Citizen.
They have been caught with their pants down and are ripe for a serious shafting.
Somehow they are going to have to buyback almost 200m shares without the price going stratospheric. Good luck with that!
Tomorrow could be very, very interesting.
Yes Gozzie yes! Go straight to the top of the class. £2.29bn
On a serious note, it’s really important that people understand the potential here and don’t bale out at £1 only to watch this go inexorably higher and miss out in life changing amounts of money.
Here’s a link to help anyone who is struggling to grasp how companies are valued and why there is so much potential here.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/valuation/price-earnings-ratio/
... and make no mistake, other hedge funds will smell ARCM's blood. Merciless,no prisoners, ambush.
Banks that lent PMO shorters the stock to sell may be in for a shock. They're going to have to find it themselves and pay for it. PMO's progress in paying down debt is excellent. At this rate it would all be paid off in 6 yrs ish (with a bit from Zama) - which would be economic madness. They'll settle with somewhere between 1bln and where they are now. PMO is only a little overgeared. Tullow has similar production volume, but is just not remotely as technically competent as PMO and has 2-3x the debt level. 'fraid they've made a boo boo, shorted the wrong stock!
This is really going to get very lively indeed. I'd bet on Tony Durrant.
Pushing back: -
https://www.cityam.com/premier-oil-under-pressure-from-lenders-over-asset-sale/