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To refer back to the video BandofHorses posted yesterday, the comment from Michael Hunt around the 16 or 17 minute mark;
‘This opens up a broad sweep of opportunities, if you will, for the use of our exosomes to target a range of different disease conditions . . .’
Then lists things like brain diseases, cancers, covid-19, diabetes (i.e. some of the biggest imaginable markets to be involved in).
Then lists recent deals, including; Codiak/Sarepta ($72.5m), Evox/Lilly ($20m upfront, $1230m total based on targets), Evox/Takeda ($882m), Codiak/Jazz ($56m upfront, $1076 total). All these are based on collaborations that target similar diseases listed previously.
The lowest one of those deals was worth double our current MCAP. The others range from 25 to 35 times our MCAP.
Olav posed the question in the end of year results about what makes these exosome developments different to ours? He goes on to answer ‘proof of concept data in an animal model’, which we are working ‘feverishly’ on both in house and in collaboration with major pharmas. He describes it as having ‘several shots on goal in the next 6 months’ and if we hit one, then it goes a long way to 'validating the entire exosome platform' (i.e. it won’t just be one deal we get if proof of concept is achieved, it will likely be multiple).
The near-term value is staring us in the face; potential transformational inflection points are lined up across different platforms. We are not a one product company that has everything riding on a distant pipe dream. We have numerous opportunities to re-rate over the coming days, weeks, months and years.
I think it was chester who said a few months ago, that this will be one of those companies that trundles along with a low share price that doesn’t go anywhere, then all of a sudden the value will be realised, and people will look back and say ‘oh, imagine if I’d bought a few shares at that price’. I didn’t think too much of that comment when I read it, as I was disillusioned with stocks, shares and markets at that time. However, after BandofHorses posted the video link yesterday, it inspired me to spend about 6 or 7 hours re-reading every announcement and re-watching every video/presentation from the last year, which has led me to recognise what Chester probably saw a few months ago when he wrote his post.
There are so many opportunities lined up now for near to medium term value generation. It’s not shooting fish in a barrel, but when you hear the CEO and CFO talking as they do, you can sense that they are expecting something big.
Thank you BandofHorses for reigniting my interest in this company, and thank you chester and others for all your valuable contributions and insight. Best of luck.
Hi PB,
I would tend to agree with you that Reneuron is vastly undervalued, obviously the cash situation is playing part in the SP valuation right now. It is the hope that we get to a deal of some sort with a good upfront payment which eliminates the need for a cash call at these depressed prices - but that is the risk right now. Take the fear of a cash call away and I would agree that it is ridiculously undervalued as hRPC looks a sure-as-you-can-be bet from the data we have so far provided nothing adverse happens. Exosomes are not really 'partnered' as such yet, they are in some proof of concept tests (obviously pre-clinical) - but yes if just one of those comes to a deal of some sort (further R&D) then it validates the platform for delivery. CTX has taken a back seat, and they did mention they did not have partners for that now. It would be helpful if the company could clarify what happens when it reports and there is still no partner.
Thanks for sharing that link; ended up buying more shares whilst watching it.
I am genuinely of the opinion that this could potentially be the most undervalued company in Britain. I might get shot down for saying that, but I'm not attempting to pump or ramp the share, it is my genuine belief.
The exosomes (which up until 6 months ago were barely worth mentioning) are now partnered with 2 or 3 trials, with other collaboration deals imminent. If they get proof of concept with just one of them, then the upfront payments and royalties will see the share price rerate significantly (based on comparisons with the deals other exosome specific research/development companies have signed, as outlined in the video link that BandofHorses provided).
If either the hRPC or CTX lines get approval, then the company is worth billions (reference the Sparks Therapeutics $4b deal, 2019). Based on the current MCAP (£36m), the odds are effectively 100/1 on either hRPC or CTX getting approval. Based on the data we currently have to hand from the phase 2a trials, I would suggest that odds of 100/1 are frankly absurd.
First time I've tried posting a link, so sorry if it doesn't work, however, you will be able to find the presentation easy enough on You Tube, the presentation was on the 21st but, its dated 24th July 2020 on You Tube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9yPl3mJjEI