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Apologies not "accounting" more like "amounting to the equivalent of" would do the trick!
Obviously markets will be impacted by the "brinkmanship" or war in the Ukraine. But I think yesterdays trading was more down to the expiry of $3,000,000,000,000 (3 x Trillion) of options in the US last Friday the 21st January. I think there was a figure of $812 billion of equities in that figure. The US National Debt is around $30 trillion - so options accounting for 10% of this!
A Tsunami for markets, because if the options are not settled because for example; say put options did not expire worthless, due to the share price having risen too much. There is a threat as extreme as market collapse on the radar! I hope you had a chart for this one Boyo, if not its worth thinking about for next time Triple-Witching occurs. For traders it is a golden opportunity.
Yes- I think it's only a matter of time MrG.
Weird market at the moment but Shell doing reasonably well compared to the rest of the market, I think
For those watching Brent live price on Investing.com: they seem to have switched to the next front month's contract already (Apr22 rather than Mar22) for their intraday charts which is about $1 lower than ICE is giving.
The SP and oil & gas prices are too disconnected. It's only a matter of time now until the SP corrects itself and +£20 should be an easy target.
Boyo - ever the Welsh voice of sense and sound reasoning, you've even driven me towards being more interested in charts so many thanks for your posts. Is it from the Valleys or the Mountains?
You've done some smart trading & long may it continue. Yes, we have seen it all before, trading cycles will not disappear as readily as Gordon Brown's "end to boom and bust" speech indicated. I always enjoy a touch of Del Boy Syndrome when things are going well though - "This time next year Rodders we'll be millionaires." What he does not add is that its a good time to sell shares!
There has been a great rise up to Wednesday. I can't see this as the start of a massive correction though, unless the extermination of techs value spreads to bell-weather stocks like Shell. There's a lot of great news to come between now and the 3rd February, a very short timescale, surely they will have got their hedging right in the last Quarter. We don't want two disappointing Quarters in a row, against the OP & GP's of the last year. Institutions and PI's will want to be on board. If the Dividend only went up 4% it is not even keeping pace with inflation, so there is likely to be good news on this front. Especially if Shellemployee is right and BvB regards Shell as having borrowed cash from shareholders, with the Dividend cut, and now owing them
If it is good news on the 3rd February, for me even with the hiding and allocating of spare capital it will be a stunning results day, the pattern should be a firming of the price towards Ex-dividend day on the 17th February. I like £18 as a share price though as it is 11.11% away from hitting the magic £20. Go Shell plc!
Hi Getafgrip.... ' it does look like a natural pull-back, but maybe the shares had a touch of altitude sickness'
Yes! A touch of the usual trading cycle sickness? Ha!-we've seen it all before haven't we but it still seems to take people by surprise. Shares go up and down - that's never a surprise - it's whether their peaks and lows are going up or down that is important. Smart folks will have sensed a reversal on Wednesday and set a stop loss to offload a few or even taken a punt on selling a few on the day.
I'm about 50% of where I was (was overweight - now underweight) and will probably 'stick' if it reverses too sharply or pile back in if the opportunity arises. A £1 downward swing in RDS represents only 5.5% off £18 - not a killer for the LTH but a tidy potential cash gain over a couple of weeks. https://invst.ly/x6jxz
Thanks to trading, my average book cost for each remaining Shell share is down to a stupidly low level so, although I could exit completely and take the remaining cash now, the divi and prospective gains in 2022 do look very promising - especially as inflation is set to take a heavy toll on cash.
Boyo - it does look like a natural pull-back, but maybe the shares had a touch of altitude sickness, as they have not been this high for some time. Maybe influenced by Biden's talk of releasing some strategic reserves (how much oil is there in a strategic reserve - well we can't tell you exactly, because it's strategic), co-ordinated with other countries. And partly by talk of a Windfall tax on the energy companies over here. Maybe a Windfall Tax will make a few voters happier, but it is addressing the symptoms and not the cause, so it would be a bit of a temporary one-off fix.
Without any doubt BvB has already discussed the issue of a Windfall Tax with Bozo as part of his negotiations to domicile Shell in the UK, and Shell is here, so that I would hazard a guess that a Windfall Tax will not happen, or it will be relatively innocuous. BvB probably said sorry the costs of going green etc are very high, a 5% increase in dividend will only keep pace with current CPI inflation, what do you want UK? We need to be attractive to entice our new British investors?
Then stunning results on the 3rd February. Even after claiming they will use the Permian sale proceeds solely for buy-backs the Shell treasure chest will be bursting at the seams! Even with as much capital allocated & hidden as possible, there will be a few additional coins to throw to the long-suffering shareholders.
Then probably/maybe a traditional dip in the SP with a dose of post-results apathy and malaise. Then a nice pick-up again towards Ex-dividend day on the 17th February
There are a few SP rocket boosters to fire off between now and the results announcement on the 3rd February though. RDS becomes Shell plc on the 24th January, followed by unification of the A & B shares, then the first day of dealing in the new shares. The likelihood is that the
I think you are right on poor getafgrip's post. That's what can happen with wit !!!.
You are also so right that the last couple of days retrace was natural and expected with seeing some profit taking. It was just a matter of when with the recent rise. With Brent nearing $90pb today, in my opinion, the retrace should be short lived. A dip at the US open was fairly quickly reduced so I would not be surprised to see a move back up fairly soon.
Happy times ahead.
Get a grip, get a grip!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The end of fossil fuels is NOT nigh! We are NOT all doomed!
EVs are impractical! CO2 emissions are not going to result in us drowning, starving or dying of heat stroke – any more than normal.
Mark - a share price more than doubling since October 2021, and not going up in a straight predictable line, can be hugely disappointing if you only have a negative view and predict continual doom & gloom!
I'm a convert - the end of fossil fuels is nigh! We are all doomed! The share price is only going to go down from here! Yes, we might be twice as rich as we were last October, but isn't all property theft!
Please don't bring your negativity over from the BP forum. What is the point of your constant gloom. Look at the rise of both companies recently and get a grip. Understand that your investment can go down as well as up.
More pain to come when the Dow opens I'd bet!!