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Indeed. Plus the fact that $40 oil (again with the short term-ism) is in the midst of a crisis not seen since ww2, so once the world comes to terms with this, planes start flying again (which they will long before the world stops needing oil) and the world growth engine jump started, oil should at least pick back up to $55. Who knows what the average price will be over the next couple of decades, but its also nice to know that OPEC certainly have no desire for oil to stay at $40 long term as they have fiscal problems of their own too, and are far too reliant on the stuff at present. But with US shale BEP at between $50 - $55, this should act as a natural floor as rigs shut down when $50 approaches, and ceiling as rig count increases if oil price ahead of itself. Of course there are many variables and this very simplistic view does not take into consideration world growth rates, speed of renewable technology advancement ect, but the price of oil in normal times, a sensible guess would be avg around $50 - $65? Mabye technological advancement could bring the BEP of shale down, but i am assuming world demand could offset this?
I agree the price of oil & shells successful transitioning into renewables are very highly correlated, and a long term avg of $40 would not be great, but i really cant see the long term average being this low. We as investors should be closely scrutinising how shell uses every dollar made over the next couple of decades.
"shell won't make much profits from 40$ dollars oil."
oh well they do....but what matters is the volume sold and things like CAPEX etc which eats into that profit
They make more profit from $40 oil now than they did from say $50+ oil 5 years ago....because of cost efficiencies etc..
Much confusion on this BB over many years. I refer to oil being replaced. . Perhaps it's because I've been filtered by so may, like I care, but I've never seen a post pertaining to that . As many have stated on here scores of times. Oil is used in 100s of industrial products and more. But here's the salient point. It's not about how long it's gonna be needed, but how much shell can sell it for. The oil prices is paramount. I recall a similar situation when holding Tesco & Sainsbury's. People kept telling in in their replies. People have to eat. Yes, correct. But I'd reply they don't have to shop at Tesco & Sainsbury's where they were being fleeced.. But they couldn't grasp it. 1000s shoppers daily flocking to Aldi & Lidl. So for anyone not sure, shell won't make much profits from 40$ dollars oil.
What's your average here Char? Would it be worth buying some more maybe
As I've stated many times b4 , when I purchased shell off & on over a 18 period , I always did very well. It did when I swapped Vodafone for shell, for nearly 2 years. Indeed, analysts & people on the advfn were calling this up to £36 as it's true value. But the last year shell has gone the way of all my previous shares. I can state 100% I know a dog of a share when I own it. That's why I don't think there's any light at the end of a ruddy long tunnel for a ruddy long time. Hope I'm wrong, but the signs aren't good.
4th February 2021
Q4 Results day ....
I dont particularly care about 12 or 18 months time...I personally am only currently looking at one date ...4th February 2021 ..and I make my share price buys and decisions based on that.... suggest for now you do the same...and take it from there....step by step...
Good luck.... whatever you decide...
Beg to differ on BP finally getting there, just look at Lighthouse BP, a solar company they bought a couple of years ago and increased their shareholding. Shell needs to hurry up and announce their plans as these shares are happily slipping more than a few percent a week now for quite some time.
A lot of what you say of course is true char333. The whole world is messed up at the moment, but I try to look on the horizon and ignore the current chop, especially where shell are concerned. What amazes me however is that in the last 7 months the world thinks that we no longer need oil. Calling this sentiment kneejerk is putting it lightly and of course untrue. The saudi and russia spat will become cooperation when they realise (and it looks like they already have) that a low oil price is certified mutual destruction. Demand is still way way off but should recover if and when covid does.
Without a doubt oil companies have some very tough choices in the next 20 years. However all those things you listed are pure short termism...trump might be gone in november. We know oil cant be replaced for the next 20 years at the very least and the only reason I am here is that it seems RDSB are the only company embracing and actively seeking change into renewables and have an understanding of where the market is heading. BP finally get it but far behind shell in terms of plan implementation, and XOM are still in total denial. If my money was on any oil major to make a sucessful transition from oil to renewables, my money would be on shell as they have the scale, clout but most importantly the foresight and recognition as to where the energy market is heading and seem to be wanting change.
I just find it utterly staggering that a guy who can so clearly see things now and indeed in the future , had not a clue..not a single clue, that these "problems" were heading his way in the first place...
"I prefer to live in the real world "
It begs the question where you were living before all this hit you in the face ??
Hi. Nice sentiment, but you hang yourself by naming numerous things oil is used for. But are currently in a complete mess. Again , it's a matter of opinion, but this assumption that it will all be ok , just give it time is pure folly. It's just wishing thinking on your behalf imo. As well as the many problems you raise facing RDS there's trump v China, trump v burden. Oil price stuck at 40$. Russian v suadi. OPEC states opposing eachothers oil cuts. Faced with all those huge problems there's not a cat in hell's chance of things turning within a year. Feel free to disagree, but I prefer to live in the real world. It's human nature to hope for the best. But reality & hope just don't go together with this share ATM.i could be wrong. I never ever celebrate RDS struggling. So think your assumption is totally wrong . No one would be more pleased than me to see this at £17, but that's just folly.
Sorry Triumph 1 last comment is for Char333.
I need new glasses.
Triumph1
Plot a graph of all the airlines and oil companies and it will be the same over 2020 and especially the last 3 months. If oil companies rally you should be happy. It will mean hospitals are operating as they should (8% oil economy as everything you see in a hospital involves oil products). It will mean people can actually go and see family members living in another country. It will mean that events are happening that people are travelling to places in large numbers again. It will mean people are starting to earn more monies to buy goods or services that probably use a lot of oil product and just look around your home and see where it all exists including the paint on the walls. In fact the collapse of oil prices and oil stocks is really bad news for just about everybody. It will take time to replace oil and companies like this one are brave enough to deliver and manage and evolve that new future. They may not deserve a kicking that you celebrate, but instead its an opportunity for the brave to be in here and to have an open mind of the mix and challenges and needs that all have to be fulfilled. The share price hopefully will resolve itself and in the meantime think harder because without oil life would be very hard for us all indeed.
Daft comment. What about all the BB clowns that spout nonsense to then dissapear when they are proved completely wrong? I think they outnumber the ones who actually got it "right" by quite a significant amount....whatever that means. So for you to call everyone here stupid for not listening to you about the SP dropping from 1300 to 900 or whatever is akin to calling someone stupid for not choosing the right lottery numbers. Daft dont you think?
It dont take a whizz to realise that all Oilers are on their arses for obvious reasons and the problem is not unique to shell. We shall see who is "right" 3 to 4 years down the line so put back your bunting and let things play out over proper time periods or you risk making yourself look like the fool.
Hi , it makes me chuckle how many char333 haters there are on here. It goes to show how many weak mentally people can't handle the truth. On the Vodafone BB b4 was a guy who posted on average 100 posts a day. He to was hated . But here's the thing . When Vodafone was £1 70 he predicted it would fall rapidly to £1 30. It did. He then predicted it would fall to £1 10. It did. How the truth hurts.