Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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An excellent day for RDS:
Since last Monday’s close, BP, RDS, Exxon and Chevron have published their Q3 results against a backdrop of a near 6% decline in OP. The market reaction has given RDS the most noticeable thumbs up so far, with a gain of 6% against the others, all of which are in the region of +2.5% (US market still open of course): https://invst.ly/sorfn
RDS also appears to have broken above the trend that brought it down from around 1300 in June: https://invst.ly/sormu
It did reach a possible breakout previously in August, so fingers crossed it makes a better job of it this time.
Yes guys - as Marfthew says, I’m intrigued to see how the US companies react when the NY market opens. I’m now tracking RDS against the usual trio plus Bent from last Monday’s UK close - that’s just prior to all their Q3 results - so I can get a feel for how each company’s numbers have been received and how they build from there. So far RDS is the strongest of the bunch. However, I’d expect Chevron to chase it hard whilst Exxon may prove to be the weakest, having stumbled a bit on results day. https://invst.ly/sok1w
Boyobach the SP seems to be feeling a bit more robust since the results announced or maybe it’s my wishful thinking but I was pleasantly surprised by the upward move in SP after watching oil futures sink over the weekend
A few canny RDSB investors will have done a nice trade between 850 and 950 over the past few sessions I’m thinking
Big week with US election GLA
I believe markets were ahead of the 2nd lockdown and hence had been falling along with RDSB for few months. Now the news is in, MR market has started looking at Q1 2021.
Hi Boyobach,
It’s certainly starting to look like this might be the real deal. Very surprised by the markets overall, ftse up pretty much 1%. It will be surprising if it keeps it up though with such bad news out there and oil tumbling. Let’s see what the Americans make of it when they start trading
The first hour on a Monday usually reflects the weekend's change in OP together with shifts in news-related sentiment . So for RDS and BP to be moving upward given increasing weakness in Brent and western economies is significant. Imagine where the sp would be at $45 OP. The breakout may well be happening even under quite gloomy circumstances. https://invst.ly/soh9m
Interesting thoughts Marfthew. It demonstrates how, depending on their respective starting points, different investors will find themselves with different calculations to make concerning management of their RDS investment through trading.
With no heed to news, market factors and OP, a trend watcher might easily look at RDS in isolation and think a breakout is currently on the cards. Since it touched 845 on Wednesday, it has been swimming strongly against the tide to get to 933, climbing around 80p even as Brent continued to fall by a further $1.3 - ordinarily worth about 25p off RDS. This was entirely on the strength of the Q3 statement and dividend policy announcement. If the tide were to turn favourably, OP recovering to say $40+, then RDS would seem set fair to break out of that downward channel. However, the increasingly gloomy COVID backdrop in Western countries makes that prospect seem less likely. My thoughts are that the Q3 Statement was enough to put RDS ‘back on the shelf’ at 890+ and that it is unlikely to revisit 845 provided that Brent does not drop below $37. I don’t happen to think that gaps operate the same way for commodities as for sp’s but, notwithstanding that, $37 appears to be a vulnerable level for Brent: https://invst.ly/so42v . Optimists could, of course, argue that RDS was 1200+ during much of May whilst Brent hovered around $35 - so my concern about Brent is misplaced and the sp may well continue to float upwards even without a boost from OP. I think we’ll get a strong hint about that in the next few days.
Hi Boyobach,
I think the next week or two after today’s announcement and the US election RDSB will have its final fall before at last pulling itself out of this downward channel. I’m going all in at that stage and finally holding for years to come.
Looking for maybe a double bottom around 845 this week. We shall see. Going to be a very interesting all round. GLA
Your's is a good strategy Marfthew and I'm pleased it's working for you.
I agree about the downward channel - it's pretty well defined and, even in the month I've posted here, I've mentioned it so many times. The interaction with OP makes it a little uncertain of course but I do sense a change as of yesterday which seemed to consolidate today. There was going to be a lot of profit taking around 930 but I'm not convinced it'll pull back much, it strikes me that it might break out despite all the gloom and uncertainty - 965 should see it pull clear. I think you were right to take the profit - it's at a 'wait and see' moment in my view. ATB
I bought at 897p. Not selling as I think it will go a lot higher next week especially with the Us election
Avocet,
No sure why you have a problem with that. It actually went as low as 845 on Wednesday I think, so no not the very bottom.
Just trading a channel, it’s a pretty clear channel to see, even by drawing just two trend lines.
I have stated In here numerous times about reading this channel.
It may carry on up next week and I rue not holding it further and I do wish for LTH that it will break out of this channel soon.
Again not sure what your issue is.
I never short this stock and just play it long from the bottom to as close to the top of the channel the past 5 months. It’s worked very well for me most of the time
Marfthew, you bought in at 855 did you. Wow, I didn't even see it go there. You must be very lucky to buy rock rock bottom, or you are telling lies
Hi Boyobach,
Good results and a good few days for RDSB against the backdrop of falling oil prices.
I bought in on Wednesday at 855 and got out today at 929.
In my eyes it’s still firmly in the downward channel and right at the top of it now, hence why I took profits today.
The rinse and repeat has happened so many times from here and with all the uncertainty I’d be surprised if there wasn’t some profit taking next week and it will continue on its way to the bottom of the channel again.
I may have it totally wrong and these results are enough for it to make a breakout from this channel.
Next week is an important week for RDSB from that perspective
The chart since last Friday’s close says it all really:
https://invst.ly/snnid , RDS is down 1.23% but Brent is down 10%, whilst BP, Chevron and Exxon are all down 4 , 5 and 6% respectively
I wasn’t keen to call it a bounce earlier but RDS continued to power up today even as Brent weakened and Exxon and Chevron stumble on their Q3 results. This is the best RDS performance against OP in over a month - check out when RDS was above the green Brent line in this chart rebased to Sept 1st.
https://invst.ly/snnc9
RDS would recently have struggled to reach 930 with Brent at $42 but, on today’s performance, 1030 would be conceivable at that OP.
Article on Exxon & Chevron:
https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/toledo/ap-top-news/2020/10/30/exxon-chevron-lose-887-million-as-pandemic-pain-continues
Well, with the US Election days away and COVID taking over prime time news ..it is no wonder that markets are volatile......the bears will want to squeeze out as many of the weak holders across the market as possible and put shares in general into the hands of bulls dressed in bear clothing....
" Donald Trump Jr. says Covid deaths are 'almost nothing' on day reporting 90,000 infected, 1,000 dead
The president's son dismissed medical experts as "truly morons" in an interview on Fox News."
You know that the Trump poll figures must be bad to get that kind of "desperate" response ...there is a real effort to take Texas and Florida for the Democrats and get 65 college votes......Trump is desperate right now, tweeting at 3am...
Ben talked yesterday about reaching " the bottom of the cycle "
Compared to 847 when Brent was $39 a couple of days ago, I guess you could call it a bounce. Maybe for LT holders it's more of a step in the direction of recovery. Let's see how the market responds to Chevron and Exxon later today. RDS has yet to break out of its five month downtrend - so I'm not counting any chickens.
Is this a bounce back. Its well overdue