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DC and GO proxis for bankers can only think of saving all landlords, absolving them of losses and outrageously raising taxes against progress and green energy (doh). I think there is sheer disbelief from the tax payer that those in unfairly ENTIRELY rescued sectors then had the psychotic societal dissociation to pay themselves bonuses equiv to 20-40 new schools in building sector alone (people in authority positions in society are crooked). What we as tax payers object to is the arrogance and dismissive cheating going on. The more we complain about green energy having legs cut off it by old lobbies the more it will happen- for landlords of all people for heavens sake! When we complain about shorters ruining stocks and extremely dubious tax avoiders behind scenes nothing happens due lobbies. Why no cap gains on shorting?- cheating lobbies.
It clearly all adds up to green energy infrastructure facilitation all being moved out of London and AWAY FROM YOUR BANKS. I just speculated that HMQ has allied herself to them and she too can seem to believe she has a right to be bailed out
I think you also fail to understand the shock at realisation that tax avoiding lobbies are slowly impoverishing us. Why are Starbucks?, Costa? , nero? not taxed more? Nobody is trying hard enough for green energy (lots of it). Politicians are proxis of incompetent greedy bankers and tax avoiders and poluting energy (for arm sales- and don't complain or you'll disappear at embassy or your economy will suffer.Hey imagine we need emergency energy- don't worry here comes a tanker spewing out equiv 5000 dirty diesels! You seem to think the same people should be in charge of green energy transition- that's a bad joke. Refer to prev post for what should really have happened to landlords. Ask the Bishop? Oh dear he's a landlord! Need action on these bonuses and landlord/political bullying or democracy dead. Previous generations knew to not pander to landlords because they don't ever solve any problem. Why lack of intelligence not investigating clear landlord/banker/politician mafia behaviour against taxpayer- scared or hiding. Who they represent. There is no authority given by people at elections such that extremely average public school boys preserve pre-eminence of landlords in society by taxing people to hell and cancelling progress , making sure landlords don't suffer losses!- God forbid! Now we know you landlords and builder directors are completely bent. had a decade to explain themselves but can't. Another thing- Where are all the facilities for residents of your rabbit hutches? Absolved of that too in this generation?
... crazy logic. If the landlords had been made suffer the losses from their storm there would have been war!- really! If GB who failed to cool the TB property and mortgage bubble had failed to act... He did fail to act by riding bubble for his own career. DC and GO proxis for bankers can only think of saving all landlords, absolving them of losses and outrageously raising taxes against progress and green energy (doh). I think you severely underestimate the sheer disbelief from the tax payer that those in unfairly ENTIRELY rescued sectors then had the psychotic gall to pay themselves bonuses equiv to 20-40 new schools in building sector alone. What we as tax payers object to is the arrogance and dismissive cheating going on. eg the more anyone complains about JF and friends the more likely it seems they get gongs. The more we might complain about SKY pushing gambling to our children the more they will do it? The more we complain about green energy having legs cut off it by old lobbies the more it will happen. Unlike economic theory also car companies rather than being put out of business after cheating emissions etc by the new electic manufacturer do infact survive and then shamelessly ask for Gov help (ie taxpyer) to retool!! When we complain about shorters ruining stocks and extremely dubious tax avoiders behind scenes nothing happens due lobbies. Why no cap gains on shorting?- cheating lobbies.
It clearly all adds up to green energy infrastructure facilitation all being moved out of London and AWAY FROM YOUR BANKS. I just speculated that HMQ has allied herself to them so a piece of small print i would recommend from 2008/9 to be termed a 'reign under review' due strong evidence that a giant criminal fraud has been committed against taxpayer and this be the status until it is cleared up v.v the unfair TOTAL landlord bailout and crown estate benefit from this. (according to the small print 'reign under review' years cannot be counted as years reigned'- worthy of Bj's advisors!!)
I think you also fail to understand the shock at realisation that tax avoiding lobbies are slowly impoverishing us. Why are Starbucks?, Costa? , nero? not taxed more? You can pretend it's normal but i can't. Nobody is trying hard enough for green energy (lots of it). Politicians are proxis of incompetent greedy bankers and tax avoiders and poluting energy (for arm sales- and don't complain or you'll disappear at embassy or your economy will suffer. You seem to think the same people should be in charge of green energy transition- that's a bad joke. Refer to prev post for what should really have happened to landlords. Ask the Bishop? Oh dear he's a landlord! Need action on these bonuses or democracy dead. You do mention war because after wars elite knew to not pander to landlords because they don't ever solve any problem. Why lack of intelligence not investigating clear landlord/banker/politician mafia behaviour against taxpayer- scared or hiding. Who they represent?
Hi, Nige. As you know, I'm more of a buy and hold kind of guy. You are too for part of your holdings but like to beat the market with your float. TBH, I don't have the time to study that stuff out. I think you are retired, so this game makes sense for you to play -- for me, it's enough to try to figure out which companies look promising and fit my overall strategy.
So I suspect you are right but that old DYOR thing, and not having the time to do so, means I'm just not at the point in my life where I can try to time the market like you do.
I made sure to be 100% invested before the election, that one seemed obvious to me, and I've pulled out some cash now because I see turmoil over Brexit for 6-9 months. But to try to figure out which reports are likely to send the market up or down is beyond me right now.
Hi TMT
One big difference between PreFin and FinRes is that PreFin basically states the accounts for the period, while FinRes also includes an outlook statement.
Good PreFins will produce a surge, while the outlook statement might spoil them even if in line with PreFins.
A good example of that is some time ago Tw produced good PreFins, FinRes in line, but the Sp went down after FinRes. This was because Tw stated that Costs might increase for imported materials if we leave the EU.
Imported Materials just a tiny fraction of total costs, so makes very little difference, and the same for all other Builders anyway. Even so the market went into a Blind panic as usual and Sp dropped.
So, generally my idea is to get in before PreFins (if I think they will be good) and get out before FinRes.
Importantly, this is not always the case. Sp of Rdw has its own agenda - No PreFins nor PreInts, so Sp usually surges after FinRes (and to a lesser extent IntRes), but then a big (relative) decrease again just 2 or 3 weeks after, so good idea to get out of rdw just after FinRes produced.
BoL
"i think it could have more than one effect either up or down even if its positive or negative"
It could be good results but the market could pick up on one statement that makes people think it is projecting bad news, and the price could drop. Or it could be exactly the reverse. Or, it could be mostly steady as she goes and the price might not move at all.
Fundamentally, I'm convinced the share is still underpriced, so I'm just holding. If the market goes up, or down, this week, is unlikely to change my view. The statement may change my perspective of how much underpriced I think it is but it is unlikely to be a game changer for me.
Margin was 30%. If it drops to 28% due to improved focus on quality issues, I'll assume the company is going to keep making money and keep paying dividends. If it drops to 25%, the same, if we begin to see margin down around 20% I'll be concerned. If it stays at 30% and there's significant evidence that build quality is improving I'll buy more.
The kinds of things that could change my view are likely to change slowly, over time. I don't expect the trading statement to move my view very much. But market sentiment is a funny thing and it certainly could provide all kinds of bounces.
Hi ilike
Two very different Companies, bkgh based LSE, psn National. Bkgh anticipated 30% dec in Eps cos LSE suffering at the moment. Psn recovering from Quality issues and -ve publicity (Directors bonus but History now). There is no doubt there will be a cost to addressing Quality issues, but probably won't effect Eps much.
Exciting week coming, the big 3 all reporting Psn and Tw PreFins and Bdev PreInts. Tw also addressing Quality issues (leading to poor Interims last year), so hoping Bdev results will be best.
So most of my float in Bdev, some in Psn for Divi and rest in Rdw (cos looks the best value).
BoL
hi guys,
was wondering what everyone thinks about the effect of the trading statement on wed 15th January on psn share price,i think it could have more than one effect either up or down even if its positive or negative but going by the Berkeley gr results lately when they reported -30% profit psn results may be same,but sp reaction not guaranteed which way or jaust a volatile intraday action.
you know a little but crazy logic. If the landlords had been made suffer the losses from their storm there would have been war!- really! If GB who failed to cool the TB property and mortgage bubble had failed to act... He did fail to act by riding bubble for his own career. DC and GO proxis for bankers can only think of saving all landlords, absolving them of losses and outrageously raising taxes against progress and green energy (doh). I think you severely underestimate the sheer disbelief from the tax payer that those in unfairly ENTIRELY rescued sectors then had the psychotic gall to pay themselves bonuses equiv to 20-40 new schools in building sector alone. What we as tax payers object to is the arrogance and dismissive cheating going on. For example the more anyone complains about JF and friends the more likely it seems that powers behind scenes will make sure they get gongs. The more we might complain about SKY pushing gambling to our children the more they will do it? The more we complain about green energy having legs cut off it by old lobbies the more it will happen. Unlike economic theory also car companies rather than being put out of business after cheating emissions etc by the new electic manufacturer do infact survive and then shamelessly ask for Gov help (ie taxpyer) to retool!! When we complain about shorters ruining stocks and extremely dubious tax avoiders behind scenes nothing happens due lobbies. Why no cap gains on shorting?- cheating lobbies.
I think it decisevly all adds up to green energy infrastructure facilitation all being moved out of London and AWAY FROM YOUR BANKS. I just speculated that HMQ has allied herself to them and as a piece of small print i would recommend from 2008/9 to be termed a 'reign under review' due strong evidence that a giant criminal fraud has been committed against taxpayer and this be the status until it is cleared up v.v the unfair TOTAL landlord bailout and crown estate benefit from this. (according to the small print 'reign under review' years cannot be counted as years reigned'- worthy of Bj's advisors!!)
I think you also fail to understand the shock at realisation that tax avoiding lobbies are slowly impoverishing us. Why are Starbucks?, Costa? , nero? not taxed more?
You can pretend it's normal but i can't. Nobody is trying hard enough for green energy (lots of it). Politicians are proxis of incompetent greedy bankers and tax avoiders and poluting energy (for arm sales- and don't complain or you'll disappear at embassy or your economy will suffer. You seem to think the same people should be in charge of green energy transition- that's a bad joke. Refer to prev post for suggestion what should have happened to landlords. Ask the Bishop? Oh dear he's a landlord also and human too!!! Needs be retrospective action on these bonuses or democracy dead. Interesting you mention war because as i understand it after wars elite knew to not pander to landlords because they don't ever solve any proble
Hi TMT
Instructive to look up profile of person sending the message. Driftking invests in all sorts of big companies and probably knows little about any of them. Obviously didn't bother to look up fundamentals of psn, and regurgitates all the old misconceptions about Buillders.
Having a good chat on bwy at the moment.
BoL
> £1BN cash, 30% margin, AND healthy land bank.
Just keep correcting the build quality issues, don't do stupid stuff on exec compensation, no more bad leasehold deals, and play the PR game well.
Lse might be in a bubble, rest of country isn't and Psn National Builder. Rate of increase of house prices has been steady (outside London) for last 10 years, and as long as supply doesn't exceed demand (another 10 years at least), will continue.
When you have > £1 Bn Cash in the Bank and 30% margin you don't really need a recovery.
Housing recovery!!! We’re in a housing bubble mate.. lol
Back in here based on recent momentum and also the dividend. Invested here twice before in 2012 and 2014 and made 70% and 40% in a year so hopefully more of the same this time.
Hi, Tony. Lots of people are tipping PSN these days.
First, I think the reputational thing has turned the corner. Current management has played it exactly right. 1) Said we need to change. 2) Delayed sales, which may or may not matter much but it is something substantive. 3) Commissioned an independent report to get all the issues out on the table -- no more drip, drip. 4) Changed exec remuneration package and replaced both the exec and the people who gave it to him. 5) Every piece of bad news in the last year, they've already been working on correcting before it hit. Obviously better NOT to have the bad news but at least they have been handling it right. 6) Came up with a creative idea (retention policy) which virtually guarantees that a lot of buyers won't be scared off by quality issues, and also lets them claim to be market leaders on customer care.
Some of these things will cost some money, but none of them should have any major impact on profitability. So it isn't surprising that we see PSN tips popping up all over the Internet. Here's another from Tom Rees of the Telegraph. After talking about the reputation issues, he says this:
But now could be the time to snap up Persimmon shares. First, shares in housebuilders are on the rise after Boris Johnson’s election triumph lifted the economic outlook and lacklustre property market.
Second, City scribblers believe Persimmon has already taken a number of steps to address the issues raised by the report on build quality.
And finally, if you are not convinced by the share price story, a bumper dividend yield nearing the 10pc mark could be more persuasive. That is the fourth best in the FTSE 100 and, unlike similarly strong payouts from Centrica and BT, Persimmon’s generous dividends look almost as safe as houses. Some analysts are predicting they could go even higher.
Persimmon shares are already on solid foundations and the company should build on recent gains in 2020.
you know a little but crazy logic. If the landlords had been made suffer the losses from their storm there would have been war!- really! If GB who failed to cool the TB property and mortgage bubble had failed to act... He did fail to act by riding bubble for his own career. DC and GO proxis for bankers can only think of saving all landlords, absolving them of losses and outrageously raising taxes against progress and green energy (doh). I think you severely underestimate the sheer disbelief from the tax payer that those in unfairly ENTIRELY rescued sectors then had the psychotic gall to pay themselves bonuses equiv to 20-40 new schools in building sector alone. What we as tax payers object to is the arrogance and dismissive cheating going on. For example the more anyone complains about JF and friends the more likely it seems that powers behind scenes will make sure they get gongs. The more we might complain about SKY pushing gambling to our children the more they will do it? The more we complain about green energy having legs cut off it by old lobbies the more it will happen. Unlike economic theory also car companies rather than being put out of business after cheating emissions etc by the new electic manufacturer do infact survive and then shamelessly ask for Gov help (ie taxpyer) to retool!! When we complain about shorters ruining stocks and extremely dubious tax avoiders behind scenes nothing happens due lobbies. Why no cap gains on shorting?- cheating lobbies.
I think it decisevly all adds up to green energy infrastructure facilitation all being moved out of London and AWAY FROM YOUR BANKS. I just speculated that HMQ has allied herself to them and as a piece of small print i would recommend from 2008/9 to be termed a 'reign under review' due strong evidence that a giant criminal fraud has been committed against taxpayer and this be the status until it is cleared up v.v the unfair TOTAL landlord bailout and crown estate benefit from this. (according to the small print 'reign under review' years cannot be counted as years reigned'- worthy of Bj's advisors!!)
I think you also fail to understand the shock at realisation that tax avoiding lobbies are slowly impoverishing us. Why are Starbucks?, Costa? , nero? not taxed more? If local Gov had balls they'd just say 'right 10-20 times usual bus rates for you. like it or go elsewhere- there are plenty of alternatives.
You can pretend it's normal but i can't. Nobody is trying hard enough for green energy (lots of it). Politicians are proxis of incompetent greedy bankers and tax avoiders and poluting energy (for arm sales- and don't complain or you'll disappear at embassy or your economy will suffer. You seem to think the same people should be in charge of green energy transition- that's a bad joke. Refer to prev post for suggestion what should have happened to landlords. Ask the Bishop? Oh dear he's a landlord also and human too!!!
lack of intelligence save us? convenient no understand or scared?
Hi Tony
I study Builders in detail, cos they are all massively undervalued so about the only thing I invest in.
Disagree with some of the article you quote, the biggest builder by far MrktCap £8,454 Mn, then bdev £7,587 (but bdev might build more houses). Interesting comparison between those 2 cos after psn quality issues (and Brokensh*t) revealed, psn Sp plummeted (end of Feb 19), but has mainly recovered since. For some time bdev was the biggest Bldr but has lost ground to psn (low point 13/09/19) which has increased a lot since then - until the publication of the report they commissioned before We 20/12/19, resulting in another big drop in Sp)
bdev used to have a bad reputation for quality, but are now the best, while how long will it take for psn to recover their reputation (and how much will that eat into their Margin)?
Fundamentals for psn are excellent, but I see decreasing Margins, Profits, Eps... as they sort their Issues, while bdev has no Issues.
So I think bdev could be a better bet short term, psn great long term (cos they are making great efforts to sort the Issues).
Incidentally, I think the most undervalued are bwy and rdw.
BoL
Tempus tip Persimmon in today’s Times Business section.
Persimmon
A geared bet on the property market, the economy and consumer confidence, the UK’s second-biggest homebuilder is wrestling with rebuilding its reputation after an executive bonus scandal and criticism over the quality of its properties.
Persimmon’s shares are trading at a bargain-basement price of just under 9.8 times consensus forecast earnings for one of the biggest dividend yields in the FTSE 100, at just over 8.6 per cent.
Some investors and analysts question whether the dividend payout is sustainable, particularly once the Help to Buy scheme comes to an end in 2023.
However, at 31.7 per cent for the first half, Persimmon’s gross margin is among the highest in the sector and its cash reserves of more than £830 million underpin the dividend. That Persimmon’s average selling price, whijuch stands at about £242,912, is lower than its prevailing benchmark should mean it is well positioned in a housing market recovery. It is also desperate to recover its reputation for quality, a characteristic whose power should not be underestimated.
you know a little but crazy logic. If the landlords had been made suffer the losses from their storm there would have been war!- really! If GB who failed to cool the TB property and mortgage bubble had failed to act... He did fail to act by riding bubble for his own career. DC and GO proxis for bankers can only think of saving all landlords, absolving them of losses and outrageously raising taxes against progress and green energy (doh). I think you severely underestimate the sheer disbelief from the tax payer that those in unfairly ENTIRELY rescued sectors then had the psychotic gall to pay themselves bonuses equiv to 20-40 new schools in building sector alone. What we as tax payers object to is the arrogance and dismissive cheating going on. For example the more anyone complains about JF and friends the more likely it seems that powers behind scenes will make sure they get gongs. The more we might complain about SKY pushing gambling to our children the more they will do it? The more we complain about green energy having legs cut off it by old lobbies the more it will happen. Unlike economic theory also car companies rather than being put out of business after cheating emissions etc by the new electic manufacturer do infact survive and then shamelessly ask for Gov help (ie taxpyer) to retool!! When we complain about shorters ruining stocks and extremely dubious tax avoiders behind scenes nothing happens due lobbies. Why no cap gains on shorting?- cheating lobbies.
I think it decisevly all adds up to green energy infrastructure facilitation all being moved out of London and AWAY FROM YOUR BANKS. I just speculated that HMQ has allied herself to them and as a piece of small print i would recommend from 2008/9 to be termed a 'reign under review' due strong evidence that a giant criminal fraud has been committed against taxpayer and this be the status until it is cleared up v.v the unfair TOTAL landlord bailout and crown estate benefit from this. (according to the small print 'reign under review' years cannot be counted as years reigned'- worthy of Bj's advisors!!)
I think you also fail to understand the shock at realisation that tax avoiding lobbies are slowly impoverishing us. Why are Starbucks?, Costa? , nero? not taxed more? If local Gov had balls they'd just say 'right 10-20 times usual bus rates for you. like it or go elsewhere- there are plenty of alternatives.
You can pretend it's normal but i can't. Nobody is trying hard enough for green energy (lots of it). Politicians are proxis of incompetent greedy bankers and tax avoiders and poluting energy (for arm sales- and don't complain or you'll disappear at embassy or your economy will suffer. You seem to think the same people should be in charge of green energy transition- that's a bad joke. Refer to prev post for suggestion what should have happened to landlords. Ask the Bishop? Oh dear he's a landlord also and human too!!!
All the best . Happy New Year
exstatex
Like most of your ideas you are totally wrong about investing in Companies actually helps the company you invest in.
A Company raises Cash with an IPO, guaranteed by a Bank, then the Bank trades the original money to investors. From then onwards the Banks debt decreases to Nil as, PI's take over that debt, so PI's replace the Banks and hopefully make money out of the growth of the Coy and/or the Divis they pay. The Company could not care less who lent them the money, other than the Directors can Hire or Fire the Management of the Company, as with Psn.
More importantly, if the Banks could not do that, no emerging (private) companies, could raise cash to expand. So if Gordon Brown had not saved the Banks we would be in a situation of total stagnation (ie the Depression of 90 years ago, when the only way out was War!
There is another way, rather than giving the Banks £1 Tn?, he could have split it equally between all the people in the country. This would have stimulated the economy, cos most people would spend it, but you would probably still have to borrow money to buy a house, and it would destroy the system.
Basically, you are left with destroying Capitalism or War, and Govt just watched as the Housing industry was destroyed. Hence unable to produce enough Houses now, which will be the case for years. Govt never gave a penny to Builders and due to lack of Govt, created the problem to begin with.
still can't get my head around the psychotic behaviour of the builder execs. Pre 2008 i was investing everything i had and going without income to try and do something about global warming and energy for the future (let's call this the big picture!). Post 2008 gov rifles all the money to rescue landlords, crown estate, london lawyers and small print cheats like Bj's helper.s . Psycho execs of builders and builder supply after being completely rescued THEN pay themselves outrageous illegal bonuses. Crown estate stays stum but puts in for repair money to test water after 18mts then constant regular after that. 'Respectable' masons understand dealing with 'hole in roof' (actually new palaces) before damage gets worse but concerning hole in roof of atmosphere they run off with all the money for themselves , delay progress and stability and security. Typical greedy royalist masons taking advantage of a situation, not contributing in any way logically. 10 years we have been waiting for an explanation. nothing, just theft.
better than rescuing landlords 100% and have the disraceful sight of bullies saying they deserve bonuses it would perhaps have been better to reassign ownership over 50% of their portfolios with new owners held to not sell for 30 years and not borrow more than 30% of their value which would cover repairs. So supply and demand would have been solved. Also a whole raft of independent and free british people would have been created capable of well educating their children. I would also not have been outrageously taxed by quisling HMRC. What has happened post 2008 is nothing more or less than a land grab against their own peolpe by the elite (who should have volunteered pay cuts as a basic moral decision)
I would n't at all be surprised if Bj and his backers are only here to turn the screw more against progress. They didn't invest pre 2008 , bailed themselves out then didn't invest again. It's pure theft and immoral behaviour. Who could think they will invest or invent themselves or us out of anything. JF and friends are in their image.
It's all about power and assets grab imo. Solving problems requires honesty so they have no chance. Sorry HMQ but obviously one must be up to neck in it
Actually think i worked it out now. HMQ just allies herself with london bankers whatever they do knowing if they are cheating via small print it will be in her interests. We know DC and GO are proxis for bankers. However the bank meltdown of 2008 was their storm, their hard luck, their time to suffer losses, their ship went down in the hurricane- hard luck but if you had all your money in property you were gambling. So what happened and HMQ and banks know this only too well is that considering they put the people (mp's ) in place and smoothed their careers was to convert their storm into other peoples storm via austerity and credit dry up. So my sensible investments in green energy were compromised. Media should get a hold of this rponto
Hi TMT
Lot's of Results in first 6 months. Brexit has and will continue to be the major factor in Sp movement. You can either try to make money out of that, or just ignore it. Remember that as we get closer to 2021, the Sp movement will become greater as the time runs out, so I think a good idea is to be mainly invested in 1st 6 months (maybe 10% Held), then increase that to 20% or more in last 6 months.
Just added to SSheet to calc % PL on Base values.
bwy 114%, held since 12/12/13, after top ups av now 1775.
bdev 96.1%, held since 13/08/14 bought at 350, topped up 11/06/18 at 578 giving av of 380.
rdw 95.9%, held since 22/08/16, after top ups av now 386.
psn 74.2%, held since 25/11/14, av now 1522.
tw 20.9%, held since 22/08/16, av after top ups av now 160.
Note rdw and tw orig shares bought about the same date, but making good money out of rdw (not tw).
This does not include completed Deals PL and from this point of view bwy by far the best, followed by bdev then rdw.
I was chasing Divis on psn (broke even) and tw (lost a lot), and sold out rather than waiting for a recovery, (so my own fault entirely). Like to think Proper Planning Prevents ****Potical Performace (Army 6 Ps principle).
Anyway, I think it is good time to adopt my Float idea cos Prices cheap now, which is the best time to do it.
BoL
I shouldn't have sold out of rdw after the election. Worked out pretty well for me with the others....
Re: trade on volatility, or hold, I suppose I'm doing a hybrid. Holding PSN, took profits on other builders and holding it in cash assuming volatility will take us lower over the summer.
Hadn't really noticed the 1st half of year thing, maybe I need to get back in. Wonder why that is....
Hi TMT
Of course there is no way of knowing if a Deal will be made, but as news announced I think the Sp will vary wildly as it has done for the last for the las 3 1/2 years. Then the question becomes do you trade on the volatility (ie reserve float) or just hold (assuming original plans OK).
Think I will adopt a compromise position and hold a small float (10 to 15% of Tot float). Compromise never the best solution (like a Deal) and don't like the idea of Day trading.
Couple of points to bear in mind. Usually builders do well in 1st half of year (so be mainly invested then), and rdw seems to be least affected by Brexit. After GE tw and bdev up about 14% while rdw hardly up at all (so Relative strength well behind) but catching up now. Same with after leave vote, rdw almost unaffected while rest in freefall. Again it took time for rdw to adjust.
No Deal is not a disaster, the market expects a massive housing slump (which won't happen) and then will be forced to revalue builders.
Happy New Year and BoL
Hi, Nige. I suspect he does want a deal but is prepared to walk away if the EU doesn't give enough ground.
As an investor, you'd want to be in cash if it ends up no deal, as you said, but to be fully invested if there is a deal. We saw how quickly it happened at the election, builders up 10+%. That will happen again if a trade deal is agreed. But how to know? Even if you believe he does want a deal (and I do), that doesn't mean the EU will agree one that he'd accept.
I took profits after the GE, though still heavily in PSN and some non-builders. But I think I'm going to stay in cash for a while, I trust the BBC to bleat about no-deal enough to drive sentiment down. But I think I want to be pretty much fully invested by August, to ride the lift up if a deal is agreed. If it isn't, since I'll be heavily invested in builders at that point, I'll assume they are still going to recover even after a no-deal drop.
I still can't get my head around the psychotic behaviour of the builder execs. Pre 2008 i was investing everything i had and going without income to try and do something about global warming and energy for the future (let's call this the big picture!). Post 2008 gov rifles all the money to rescue landlords, crown estate, london lawyers and small print cheats like Bj's helper.s . Psycho execs of builders and builder supply after being completely rescued THEN pay themselves outrageous illegal bonuses. Crown estate stays stum but puts in for repair money to test water after 18mts then constant regular after that. 'Respectable' masons understand dealing with 'hole in roof' (actually new palaces) before damage gets worse but concerning hole in roof of atmosphere they run off with all the money for themselves , delay progress and stability and security. Typical greedy royalist masons taking advantage of a situation, not contributing in any way logically. 10 years we have been waiting for an explanation. nothing, just theft.
better than rescuing landlords 100% and have the disraceful sight of bullies saying they deserve bonuses it would perhaps have been better to reassign ownership over 50% of their portfolios with new owners held to not sell for 30 years and not borrow more than 30% of their value which would cover repairs. So supply and demand would have been solved. Also a whole raft of independent and free british people would have been created capable of well educating their children. I would also not have been outrageously taxed by quisling HMRC. What has happened post 2008 is nothing more or less than a land grab against their own peolpe by the elite (who should have volunteered pay cuts as a basic moral decision)
I would n't at all be surprised if Bj and his backers are only here to turn the screw more against progress. They didn't invest pre 2008 , bailed themselves out then didn't invest again. It's pure theft and immoral behaviour. Who could think they will invest or invent themselves or us out of anything. JF and friends are in their image.
It's all about power and assets grab imo. Solving problems requires honesty so they have no chance. Sorry HMQ but obviously one must be up to neck in it