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Hi China. Thanks for your reply, and I do respect your thoughts on the BFS importance.
The BFS will be needed for II's to justify large(er) holdings. That alone will be great for PRE and its growth to a mature NdPr miner.
Onwards and upwards to PRE.
My apologies Mike, I mean no offence, I read the nuances of your comment incorrectly; although I still think that somebody who only has $,000 invested is probably in a more fragile financial position than somebody with $200,000 ?
You also say the BFS is unknown, to some extent you are right. But for us Australians who have been holding PM8 for several years can hopefully factor in what we have learnt from the previous performances of Management who have so far managed to exceeded our expectations in just about every Announcement.
Besides which, the BFS is almost immaterial at this point, All of the fundamental requirements are already in place, Deposit, Infrastructure, Permitting and Finance are all ready to go; the BFS will admittedly crystallizes all these but I seriously doubt that it will diminish any of my expectations.
Hi China.
I think you miss my point on some parts, and others you need to wind your neck in.
The millionaire analogy was used for comparison to PRE putting out positive RNS's about the mine qualities and the BFS actually reflecting that as fact. Tornadotony mentioned along the lines that he thought the BFS was a given success as the mine was showing good and has increased by size. By the way, I'm not a millionaire. If you can't understand that analogy, then that's your problem.
If you had £100K invested in PRE and was sitting on a 2-11 -bagger and would not top-slice going into the unknown BFS outcome - then you either have a lot of profit you don't mind losing or a high risk taker. Then again, if you only have £500 invested then the risk is neither here nor there. This was a possible reason as to why PRE suffered it first major pull-back since the London IPO. People will take profit at some point. Again, for Tornadotony's concern over the sudden fall.
With regards to COVID - why woould I be concerned? Again, this is another reason I mentioned that could be causing nearly all miners to lose 5-20% on Monday as the media really hit home about us being in a second wave. Everyone knows about COVID, and that it's here to stay for quite some time. Yet the media can really influence stocks. The FTSE 100 lost 3.3% that day - over COVID second wave fears.
Of course have your opinion, but respect others trying to have input also.
Mike, The only person who should care if you are indeed a Millionaire is Yourself, Personally I don't give a Continental !
"Would you wait for PRE's BFS, which could raise questions about financing the mine coupled with second wave COVID-19 scaring the market sitting on a 2-11-bagger?"
No, because if you wait you will miss the chance to make a 10 bagger, after the BFS you may make a 5 bagger but not 10!
If your worried about Covid, I suggest that you should get your money out of the Banks ASAP, they are the ones that most likely to suffer a run. I doubt that Covid is going to affect a Mine, especially in Angola where the average age is around 20. The last Covid panic in March was over and recovered by April.
Does anyone know the date when the bfs will be released?
Thanks everyone for replying. I look forward to the BFS next month.
Tornadotony - yes, the question of finance risk is an important one. Chinese finance I think is quite a realistic option. But by selecting that option how restricted will Pensana be in its strategic choices later?
According to the Pensana's chaiman Atherley in talk with Crux Investor, China has belt-and-road invested $20bn in Angola. This mine fits perfectly into Chinas long term plans in Angola. China Great Wall Industry Corp (CGWIC) is as far as I can hear in the videos the only company Atherley has contacted to turn-key build the mine facilities. Via CGWIC Atherley will be put in touch with suitable Chinese banks for the planned 85% of total cost loan finance. This is a finance methodology China has done hundreds, if not thousands of times around the world. And they know which clauses to include in the paperwork.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZzMhJSYIkk&t=196s
A scenario where the bank, as you suggest, could say "its not a runner" would only happen if Western (non-Chinese) banks were to lend the money. As far as I can hear from several video interviews, Atherley is only speaking with the Chinese about both the mine procurement AND the finance. No plan B seems to be required.
As part of their belt-and-road game plan, China takes a different view to the rest of the world. They want these rare earth elements shipped to China so that they not only can refine the them but also make them into components and use them in the whole value chain from raw materials to finished products (e.g. Chinese made super-magnet CT scanners was mentioned in one video).
Western banks don't have belt-and-road. They need belt-and-braces instead. They need to make profit on the finance alone. Therefore, western banks often need to say "its not a runner". China however thinks in terms of long-term profit created in the whole value chain for all its belt-and-road projects combined for China as a whole. A few losses here and there within the value chain is not an issue since they know that the overall domestic and export price of millions of products containing rare earth elements is colossal. And perhaps more important is China's ever-reinforced dominant world position created by each additional belt-and-road input.
Atherley, with his many years working and getting along with the Chinese, never stood a chance. He has completely fallen for this Chinese procurement and finance method.
I was under the impression that they have finance agreed except for £30m in additional equity.
I could have flash cars and tell you I'm a millionaire - although until I was able to show you a bank statement to prove it... you never be quite sure.
The same goes for PRE - until they prove their findings the sp will remain in pence rather than pounds. PRE have 2-bagged in a few months and 11-bagged on ASX.
Would you wait for PRE's BFS, which could raise questions about financing the mine coupled with second wave COVID-19 scaring the market sitting on a 2-11-bagger?
PRE will only truely take-off once a decent BFS is delivered and financing for the mine known. We might get diluted yet. Financing will test Paul Atherley and his team's credability. They talked the NdPr deposit and will soon be time to see how much it will cost to extract and the off-taker terms.
https://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/bankable-feasibility-study-29202.html
What is in process.
I was trying to understand the risk after the resource report. I was under the impression that as the resource doubled and effectively the share priced had doubled to give an in the ground price of 46-47p that the bank feasibility study had very favourable metrics to work with. Was I correct in that assessment. What chance is there for the bank to say its not a runner. I am trying to weigh up the risk and I could not see where it was despite the share price slipping back further this morning.