We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Ah the mystery of gold . Back in 2015 it was estimated that there was 171,300 tonnes and if made into a cube it would be about 20.7m (68ft) on each side. So physically not a lot.
Thanks updownflat, I still think supply and demand has just a big, if not more of a part to play, there have been numerous times when governments, ( including our own ) have held lots of gold. And when it is in short supply the price goes up.
As far as bond rates, hopefully, the very low rates, mean, when we are negotiating the bond maturities next year, we can get a smaller coupon this time, depending on the route they intend to go, Or they could shock us all and have a rights issue, to repay the lot and be debt free, or a bit of both, decisions decisions, and no doubt there are conversations going on now, as there has to be a plan.
Rusty,
I think think you want me to distract people on the board so let me explain
(and forgive any mistakes)
Gold is a safe haven for treasuries owners especially if the yield is negative. The yield is made up of the nominal interest rate, e.g. currently 1.5% on the 10 year, 2% on the 20 year,
less inflation, currently 2.15% expected over 10 years
therefore the real interest rate is -0.75% for 10 years, around 0% over twenty years.
In the USA the government sets the nominal very short term (overnight) rates and the markets determine the longer-term nominal (2/5/7/10/20/30) rates.
Most loans (Private/Business/Government) across the world can be traced back in some way to the US 10 Year.
What does this mean for Gold ? It is a commonly held belief that there is a limit to how high nominal interest rates can rise before they have to be controlled because of side effects. (new government borrowing, stock market yields, effects on business).
What we also know is that inflation is about to arrive. How much and for how long is the question?
That’s why rising nominal rates might also be associated with declining real rates.
Rusty,
I would love to take credit for the "theory". Really there are two things that mostly drive Gold, treasuries and currencies because gold is the alternative(safe haven) to owning both of these.
Gold has a lot to do with interest rates. Gold competes with cash savings. Cash savings are less attractive when interest rates are low... also it‘s not a linear relationship, because money printing devalues money (good for gold) but eventually increases interest rates ( bad for gold) which ever the market will value more ;)
Anyway, I think gold is down since the market is expecting interest rates to start increasing soon... so are Banks by the way...
It was about the price of gold and I still dont get it. Personally I dont think the price of gold has anything to do with interest rates, they are totally seperate commoodities. So if you like to explain your theories. ?
Gold should do well once inflation kicks in to drive the real yield down. We see the production component in commodities at the moment. We will see the service sector component shortly. If you think about the situation.
Rusty,
If it's about the plan, then it’s completely normal practice for a CEO or even a senior management to get a 100 day period to develop their plan.
If it's about the price of gold, well the price of gold is inversely correlated with the real interest rate.
Updownflat, you keep putting on those type of posts, not having a go, And maybe I am just being think, But, What do you mean.
Strange,
gold loses 2.7% and POG is up 0.35%
POG doesn't know where the South is anymore !?
Since July last year we have had a 200% increase in the 10 Year, but only a 10% drop in the price of Gold.
Heres hopeing for 4% inflation expectation with an 2% 10 year
Rusty,
100 days is pretty normal, we are at day 83 at the moment. Look out for an hopefully exciting March and April.
KRSS, I missed that about KAZ, Must say, thats one that got away for me as I had a good holding at one time. But that is a company who is more focussed on Copper, and keeps delivering on its promises with good EBIBTA and profits.
I am not sure a merger with UGC would be a benefit to us, as I think Personally Strukhov, would benefit more from that kind of deal that ourselves.
But, for the chance of being boring, It is about time Denis actually started earning his corn and giving us a update. Company should be in the best position for decades, but we have an "unearthly silence" which does absolutely diddly squat to retain, and even more importantly attract new investors.
The no news is good news , just isn't working in this scenario.
Looks like Kaz minerals is being taken over . Best for POG shareholders can be a merger with UGC, where UGC be allowed to increase its stake upto between 43 to 49%.
What if, the inflation bounce expected is more sustained then last June 2020 ? 10 year goes to 2, but the real rates become even more deeply negative because of inflation. No more covid, covid is over..... permanently . We have been repeatedly warned that its comming. Maybe 50 : 50 chance.