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morning bignose.interesting thoughts.im not sure id read anything particular into the wording of the loan note document itself as I'm pretty sure thats just standard wording for this type of arrangement and not particular to regent(could always be wrong of course).that said as you rightly point out there have been some strange activities over the years and i do agree that its odd that no shares were issued under the option scheme.maybe there is some master plan or perhaps more likely the knowledge that in the right circumstances there is an interested party waiting in the wings if FDA approval seems on the cards.personally i do not see anyone actually acquiring fortacin without evidence of hard sales or formal FDA approval but anything is possible i suppose.what will be interesting is to see where the company's focus is if they do come up with a concrete cannabis tie in of some sort.will they then start to see fortacin as a secondary aspect making a possible sale of the rights more likely?my initial thought after the yoyo news was that was quite likely but after further thought and in light of your post yesterday i am more inclined to think that they will try and retain fortacin to get it to FDA approval which has always been,as we say,the holy grail.what will be interesting is how they get there and what income they can generate to keep going.looking forward(not sure thats quite the way to put it as its usually fingers over the eyes time) to next update.oh and currently up almost 6% on tiny volume!
Although painful, take some consolation its not like the sudden drop that has occurred for BUR over the last couple of days. Market cap dropped from 3.5bill to 1 bill......and all because some US company called "Muddy Watters" of all names, released a report effectively saying the company was worthless.
Something that was mentioned to me recently was the fact that If the loan notes have to be redeemed on a change of control of the company (see page 15 Redemption (iii) of the convertible notes announcement). Could RPG be repositioning themselves for such an event which may have collapsed before (hence no shares currently being placed)? If you remember RPG also hurriedly rushed through the share scheme immediately after the PLE TO, again since which no shares have ever been issued, why was/is that ?
There was always speculation on the sale of either PLE or the product, which, just maybe, due to the delays, as mentioned above, were put on ice due to there being too much optimism on timelines by RPG. We always had expectations of a US licensee being in place by now, but why not? Could it be that there is a certain interested party who are waiting in the wings on commencement or outcome of phase III, hence why there is still no news on North, Central or South America (The Americas) or even the Middle East which may also probably linked to the same licensee ??? (JG did indicate to me a few months back that the US licensee progress was dependant on the phase III process).
Although, again, only speculation. Maybe this time there is more meat on the bone in this regard, given the strange share jiggery pokery that has been going on ?
It will certainly be interesting to see what transpires over the next 6 to 12 months.
It's generally Bunion's posts that make me laugh out loud, but this had me spraying Earl Grey all over my keyboard.
NDA submission (if at all) before the end of 2020 is, and remains, complete nonsense (and at odds with the estimate given in the PLE accounts signed off on 26th July, which at least recognises the time necessary for COA review). Is JG mistakenly referencing a typo in the RP release?
The statement regarding pivotal study size, if relative to the Phase II study, is equally nonsensical. However, allowing for JG's butterfingered grasp of all things study-related, it's possible that he means smaller than the two previous pivotal studies, not impossible since the expected delta between treatment and placebo groups and drop-out rate are predictable and power can be tweaked accordingly, although risky when you are dealing with multi-centre studies and multiple secondary endpoints.
As for "stock replenishment", canisters delivered to wholesalers at launch 18 months ago have now expired- wonder just how many thousands are sitting in recycling skips? And whatever happened to scale-up (no corresponding variation has been submitted)? Still unresolved "impurities" issues or simply not worth the faff for such low volumes?
Well done Bignose. I knew you would get to the information.
Italian and Bignose, Thanks, as always, for your informative posts which make interesting reading. As you say, hopefully things will improve by year end. At present my shares are 50% down. But hope is eternal, so they say.
encouraging post bignose.still very surprised that phase III requires less participants as like you i was convinced the opposite was the case but more than happy to be proved wrong.also apologies if i have voiced unjustified scepticism over the recent timelines and i shall be very pleased if we can proceed as quickly as now suggested.also like the sound of stocks being replenished.perhaps we will be in a different and better place by the end of the year
ok thanks and understood.will comment late .thanks very much
Not wanting to have my post deleted, please take it as positive news from someone who knows a lot more about our own product than the resident troll.
afternoon bignose.am on grandparent duty so not had chance to check carefully but cannot immediately see where the info in your second post comes from .any chance you could kindly clarify as it sounds encouraging? thanks.
So, if anyone is interested.
FDA timelines are indeed correct, If no unforeseen (or is that unforeskin) hiccups. Ironically (that was the word used....lol ) the phase III requires less participants., so I eat humble pie and give a thumbs up to JG for at least getting that one correct ..... :-)
And Recordati are still very much onboard with apparently a new sales push this Q3 once stocks have been replenished, which will to probably coincide with the expected launches.
Feeling much better now thank you very much......... LOL
Although nothing on the HK and Macau launches as yet.
Thanks for the clarification. I actually thought, logically, that shares would be issued as monies were lent and expected new shares to hit the market for the 5.5mill usd already loaned and then whatever would be additionally loaned to go towards the Oz tax bill.
If it is as you have written and already suggested to me, it would make one think that there are reasons. i.e they expect some income to cover the loans or even buy back the shares in the next 3 years. I wonder what is going on ? I am sure we will all have a better understanding (or not) once the half yearly report is out in the next few weeks.
bignose/heimdal good evening.re the loan notes no shares will actually be issued until and unless any one of the note holders choose to exercise their conversion rights which can happen at any time up until the end of the 3 year conversion period.if they don't exercise them the conversion rights lapse and they will only have the loan entitlement.obviously the knowledge that there is the potential at any time for a very large number of shares to be issued at 0.2125c is going to impact fairly heavily on market sentiment but in part this should be offset by the knowledge that there has at least been some funding put in place to keep things going .despite the justifications for the discount given in the circular documents it seems pretty clear to me that the discount was right at the top of the range reflecting imo the lack of any alternative and the desperately parlous state of the company.so whilst from one perspective the fall to todays level could be seen as proportionate to the recent news where i do think it can be regarded as overdone is if we look at it from a volume perspective.i haven't tried to calculate the monetary value of shares traded today but its not much yet we fall at one point by 13% or so.the normal daily volumes are so low that almost all movements are exaggerated imo. goood news on china front (either re fortacin or CBD area) could easily reverse the recent downward trend with exaggerated impact on the upside,although of course the news re china licensing etc didn't have any positive impact previously so i may just be being stupidly optimistic in hoping for that.this is why i am pinning my hopes in the short term on the next big thing whatever it may be in the hope that it stimulates some interest in the hk investor community.the phrase"a wing and a prayer" springs to mind.intersting to see the venturex holding reduced on the 1st august when the tax was due. they won't have raised much from that particular sale so interesting to see if any further announcements.venturex down quite a bit today .
VXR: Change in Substantial Holding https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190806/pdf/447884w03l4ysg.pdf
Seems I have that wrong too. Apparently I have been corrected again and none of the loan note shares will hit the market till the maturity date. Surprised no one posted here to put me right, so maybe everyone else was of the same thinking? Certainly means the drop is undeservedly way overdone given, as I posted before, we appear to have no included value for China or the FDA process. Certainly makes one wonder how the HK market makers work by lowering the sp over 13% this morning. But I'm sure someone here will put me straight on my simple thinking regarding that one... ;-)
I am sure it will, but probably not far given the expected dilution at 0.215 for the equivalent market cap at 0.25 when the announcement on dilution was made. Just depend on how many shares will initially be placed. My feeling is given the already loaned 5.5 mill USD and the monies required to pay the Ozzy tax bill probably in the region of 500 mill shares.
Any ideas when the initial shares are supposed to hit the market ?
Shocking to see RPG trading @ 17.5c. Macquarie all over the sell side this morning. Will bounce
A blood bath this morning.....dropped by more than 13%. currently SP 0.179HKD
hang seng itself down 2.85 %.markets generally seeming very nervous but regent normally ploughs its own furrow.
Sold down on very low vol, not pretty though
afternoon bignose and heimdal.well bignose exactly as you predicted down to and below CLN price.entirely agree that market not impressed by what in effect has been emergency funding exercise to pay down debt and keep the lights on.partly why i was so disappointed at yooya failing to proceed s i felt it would have given markets something else to focus on instead of poor financial situation and perhaps less than encouraging sales figures.anyhow thats not now happening so lets hope for some encouraging news on china front in due course.intersting info on VXR heimdal.looks like regent are going to keep it then at least for time being.only consolation is that at 3.2 mil volume still very low really .
Indeed, with hq in KL these days
Isn't Kim Eng now owned by Maybank ?
And I apologise on my first sentence. At less than 0.215, JG and the A team are at a slight loss....derrr. Honest gov I did get an A level in maffamatiks..... Lol
That should have been "disgustingly obscene salary" for more emphasis.... Lol.