Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Demon- great post at 13:18 today. Articulated perfectly why we’re all invested here.
Great summary Demon, you've nailed it completely.
brakes off?
Elmer Hardwood in Reminisces of a stock operator" told Old Turkey a rich old trader after he gave him a tip this : "Well now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip. I have just sold every share I own."
Mr. Partridg
e shook his head regretfully "I'm obliged to you my dear boy for recommending that stock. But, I couldn't think of selling it.
Hardwood: Why Not?
Partridge; "Why this is a bull market. If I sold my stock I would lose my position. And when you are as old as I you learn that is something nobody can afford."
Livermore states: "It was a long step forward in my trading education when I learnt that the real money was not made in the individual fluctuations but sizing the market and its trend....It was never my thinking that made the big money for me but my sitting. Got that!
The old boy was rich because he stuck with the trend and let the market do it's business. Pharma is getting hot it's in a secular uptrend. A top pharma services company can power ahead now. Pharmas are digging for gold and we will sell the picks and shovels.
CF has done an amazing job up to now and he will continue to deliver IMO. He's an astute businessman with great pedigree and he's a great talker to boot. He's brought two loss making businesses together, he's streamlined them, cutting excessive wages and costs. He's done what every leader should do - strip down the costs, accentuate the revenue and build a team of value adding employees its not rocker science whats he's doing, however that doesn't make the task an easy one. The icing on the cake - he's uncovered some "hidden gems" in Imutex and Hvivo/Venn data and he's been "lucky" with the Covid crisis, all of which will assist in his goal of creating wealth to shareholders (himself being the biggest). It sounds easy to do what he's done in concept but its not, building a business which is robust and profit making is not easy. He's single minded in his approach - he has one goal - to make a company Share Price multiples of what it is today and sell to the highest bidder - once you have a clear vision everything else falls into place and the decisions you make are easy ones - you leave the fog behind. There will be peaks and troughs along the way but the upward trajectory will be north. I just wonder how far north. GLA
It was worth flipping when the fund raise was reported but I don't think theres much point to risk and try and grab a few % now. Not for me anyway. OO will rerate soon and jump quarterly on financials and also every time a big contract is signed. FOMO for me
NST you will always get people flipping shares it’s part of the game , sure we’ve all done it, for me as I said last night I think he’s peed off with maybe this and other boards but I’d say even more people emailing thinking they can run the company, was reading on here yesterday one guy said emailed CF several times, but the questions he was asking the answers were on here already, for me let’s leave the management of ORPH do what there paid to do and deliver what they’ve said over the next 12 to 18 month, remember in this line of business there’s no overnight fix, it all takes time which everybody on here should know , anyway GL to all.
He did say they were only going to RNS the big deals and not the smaller ones. I suppose that may stop people flipping shares which is a good thing. Long and strong.
One of the takeaways from the presentation was he is knocking out a deal every week. Even if they are in 300k-750k region doing it with such regularity is going to start hitting our bottom line in a major way.
We are becoming an extension of these companies a natural addition to their work. When CF started stating the regularity of these deals in particular I got very excited. It is early days, but he is running hard.
I have to agree, Plus the PCR testing is a lovely addition which makes us more attractive with our Covid play to Employers.
Small to mid level pharmas are desperate for the various info on the database. Streamlines their tests, saves money and time.
It also serves to show the depth of knowledge we have, which advertises our strength, when coming to sell our ancillary services in other areas. Which is hugely valuable to us.
We are looking like the big dog in the service industry, now.
The data base will be hugely valuable I think..
Summary = Undervalued..
The longer it goes holding at these levels, the bigger it will rise when the time comes or "that RNS" comes about Imutex. Key point for me, is becoming profitable about now. I'd say with the the way OO are lining up mid and longterm deals, A PE of 10 or more will be warranted in a years time. Defo 3xturnover for valuation. By then shareholders may well have also had a nice dividend.
Thanks idiot.
My only comment is that Venn don’t have the database.
OO itself have a database from genomic medicine Ireland.
They are now in the process of adding a whole bunch of hVivo data to this and will have a valuable asset once this is complete. There have been some early adopters but there will be a lot more to come.
I have tried to summarise the 2 webinars. Please feel free to correct me! I have also added my take of the SOTP (sum of the parts)
Imutex on track for trade sale or Nasdaq. Likely a decision in Q3 that will then be finalised in Q4. Value expectations in more the $100 - 200m zone (I suspect he has done that so any value above will be seen as good result. Perhaps up to £200m ... 49% OO)
Prepbio also being primed for sale and I think not included in the $200m guide.
Challenge study underway by year end and them sell to multiple pharmas.
Perhaps 8 covid vaccine trials for big pharma. Say £8 to 10m each? Uses the challenge study in part? Each only takes a month or so and they can run multiple (3?) at same time. To be run around year end & Q1
Believes Acacia still selling last of Woodford/Link holding. Should be done in a week or so. Expects re-rate after.
Small contracts are not always announced to market. Large contracts will continue to flow at irregular intervals. Pipeline core business over £100m + covid related £80m.
Venn databases could be sold but they prefer to monetize via subscription. Started with initial sales.
He suggests a value on OO of "several hundred" million is appropriate. Previously said 3x turnover also reasonable. If we disregard covid that gives a value of say:
OO £300m+
Imutex £50 to 100m (OO share)
Prepbio £50m?
Venn databases etc £50m?
So perhaps sotp £400 to 500m to include the special divi?