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As deep and I discussed yesterday 12p is possible. Likely the worst case scenario.
What you are buying is a stock where Imutex will likely be spun off and sold for easily more than double the stock price and more likely multiples of where we sit now in a 6 month timeframe or less.
Then as Sports demonstrated you are getting a mini conglomerate on that with Hvivo and Venn at the centre of the pharma industry in this country. What Cathal has achieved is mind blowing. Not usually a CEO supporter of AIM CEO's but this guy is a brilliant dealmaker.
Next week or ten days while the shares land will be volatile. Next month watch the newsflow with awe and astonishment.
He has a superb pipeline to work with. Stated that he is in talks overall on £160 million in deals plus. That was before he had the testing kits set out.
Two times revenue takes this to over three hundred million cap. Market usually marks you at two to three times revenue.
Now we have the cash and the size there will be way larger pipeline by the end of this year. This company bears no relation to the one he had three months ago. This is no one trick pony, this is a mini conglomerate in the making. That is why he has calmed down about selling for a double. He knows this can multiply massively within eighteen months as the rest of us can see.
He is signing deals with all the big pharma companies for tests. This is the one stop shop in one of the hottest areas of the market.
I am down at the moment but averaging in. I never do that. For this stock I do. Don't go crazy. But over time just add funds.
Nothing is certain but this is close to it.
The Sp has returned to where it was the Friday befor last.
By the following Friday we were hitting all time highs.
For reference. https://invst.ly/r0-vs
I say to myself, patience Grasshopper. :)
Sports trader and all,
Thanks for your responses. I am just worried probably because I got the timing wrong. I see the potential but sometimes it could just be bullish CEO ramping up his company.
I was looking to invest yesterday morning but I got caught up in RNS spike. Hay ho, will leave this for a bit and as I am hoping this is all positive, but the recent reaction to the news and all this has just made me little nervous...!
Let's see what happens
hello, my first post on this board but I've been following Cathal and his exploits for over a year now, I'm betting on ORPH partly for the fundamentals but mostly because of him...I'm convinced he knows what he's doing and I'm happy to pick up any crumbs that fall. with everything you bet on there will be some headwinds to deal with depending on your position, nothing is ever perfect...weak Sterling does me no favours here for example. Don't forget that in general ALL Covid related stocks are taking a bashing as over the last week the prevailing narrative is of us all getting back to work, jumping on flights to Portugal, changing the flow of money back into traditional stocks, hooray it's all over. As great a prospect as ORPH is, like it or not Covid will be the hook for many investors, there will be a large amount of Covid-related money on here....even on just that score I personally feel it's not over and so I'll be holding what I have for the future! Good Luck all!
... • AGS-v is a phase II ready mosquito saliva borne diseases including Zika, malaria and Dengue which effects 700 million people a year, deaths 1 million.
• FLU-v, AGS-v and immune modulator will be put into the Imutex newco which will be listed on NASDAQ for a 1 for 1 share.
• Funding for Flu-v will cost around 100million, so getting 3rd party funding, likely the Chinese who have been in talks for past 2 years.
• Likely to be listed on NASDAQ for 1:1 share, in approx 2-3 months. OR will be sold off for a bulk sum.
Covid19
• High interest from 3 China companies in coronavirus challenge study models. Respiratory issues over there with smog/smoking.
• Potential that China want to clone what Orph have created, either buy buying us out, or paying a premium to copy us.
• In discussions with Asia and North America about doing remote challenge study models on vaccines from their HVIVO lab.
Skin in the game
Cathal owns 20% of the company. Locked up for 3 years since June 2019.
Additionally raised 1.4 million between himself and friends which is offset against company debt currently.
Quotient partnership
Signed an exclusive deal for UK testing. 100% accuracy lab based testing, capable to run 3,000 tests per day per machine. 1 million a year.
Cathal has said this is transformational for the company.
Fundraising
• Fundraised on 22nd May for 12million
• High demand - 5x oversubscribed.
• Maximise available Covid-19 opportunities. Accelerate the development of covid challenge studies.
• Ramp up Covid-19 testing to the groups current capacity for 3000 tests a day.
• Expand existing lab testing services to 3rd party pharma and biotech companies
• Strengthen the balance sheet to take advantage of new opportunities that the board believe are available.
Pipeline
• Potential contracts have gone from £81million to now in excess of £160million after the fundraise. £110m in near term contracts.
• HVIVO pipeline was £81m potential, significantly higher then 2019 which was £39.4m.
• Venn moving away from short-term contracts to long term, 3-year contracts with recurring revenues monthly. Example: 10 small contracts from 1 company over 2 years to instead turning into 1 long term contracts over 3 years.
• Covid challenge studies weren’t previously included in the pipeline. Would bring in £7m per pharma company, 3 can work in the lab at once.
• Expecting 6 pre xmas and 6 post xmas for £84-90m.
• Quotient testing not included in those figures?
Currently loss making
Expect to be profitable by Q3 2020.
Profitable CROs trading at a revenue multiple of 2-3x (e.g. Ixico & Ergomed)
Hope that helps, as I said I need to update it, but that should give you a general overview of the company and show what an incredible investment you have stumbled on. Just have some patience, and you definitely won't regret it.
Badshah Orph is the safest investment you could possibly make on AIM while at the same time having potentially incredible upside. I posted this a couple of weeks ago, does need updating slightly with new info from the presentations, but you've come across a jewel in the crown here. Try not to be too disheartened by getting spiked!
Background
- Taken loss making companies that can work together, stripped those costs and on the verge of making them profitable.
- Europes world leader in running trials to test vaccines and anti-virals.
- Europes only 24 bed quarantine facility.
- Worlds most viral challenge study models, currently 8, but going to be 9. Nobody else comes close.
- Worlds first phase III universal flu vaccine. Could mean once every 10 years etc
- Flu-v in FDA approval process, this is worth serious £££££
- AGS-V (mosquito borne) phase I complete - research paper coming out in Lancet very soon with "exciting results”.
- UK exclusive Covid testing partnership with Quotient. 1 machine 3,000 tests a day. Full details to be released soon.
HVIVO
-Europes only 24 bed quarantine facility.
- Acquired for £13million when £113million has been invested in the clinic.
- Last year hVIVO was occupied for approx 25% of the year. In 2020 it’s expected to be full for majority of year (excluding the initial lockdown period). Quoted by Cathal “will have a spectacular year” from interview 23/04/20.
- Changed deal structure from e.g 10 small contracts from 1 company over 2 years to instead turning into 1 long term contracts over 3 years with recurring monthly revenues.
- Cut costs by £11million PA, cut over half their staff etc.
- £10.5m backlog from last year that will be carried into this year.
Venn
- Integrated drug development consultancy
- Offers phase I & II clinical trials design and execution, post-trial data management, statistics, trial randomisation and regulatory expertise
- Working with hVIVO so they don’t have to outsource, saving even more money
- Cut costs by up to £3.85million PA
Genomic Health Data
- Final phase of development to become a leading EU broker of rare disease patient data
- Numerous companies have already signed up
- Assists in drug discovery for genetic rare diseases and helps pharma companies identify patients for clinical trials
- This data is worth a lot of money to big pharma companies who are going for high end drug products
- Currently 7,000 rare diseases and up to 30million Americans suffer from a rare disease.
- Orphan drugs forecast to be 20% of worldwide prescription sales by 2025.
- The top 100 US orphan drugs was almost 4.5 times greater than the non-orphan drug cost in 2018. It is estimated that the mean cost per patient per year of an orphan drug was $150,854 versus $33,654 for a non-orphan drug.
Imutex
- FLU-v is a phase III ready universal flu vaccine. Could be worlds first. Expecting FDA news soon regarding that.
- AGS-v is a phase II ready mo
Your decision but I would suggest have a bit of patience. End of June I see new highs given the potential news flow.
Bah... A decision to sell can only be yours.. BUT for what it is worth I'm adding more if it continues. The SP is often out of kilter with the market sentiment but it doesnt make it a bad investment... two different things entirely.
I wouldn’t worry too much. I am confident that it will bounce back up. 15% on AIM can be quickly recovered.
Not sure what is going on here. Got in yesterday at spike and I am 15% down :(. My worst investment in the recent time.
To be honest, I jumped in here on the basis of investor presentation on Wednesday, and haven't done any research. That was probably a lesson learnt the hard way. I have not invested without at some degree of research but I was feeling confident about this and went in will all spare cash at once - another mistake.
Does any LTH here know what is expected from here or should I be looking to cut down my losses?
I hate to say it but from a technical stand point on the charts the next support level is circa 12.35p. That would represent a 11% margin for placees. I hope we dont get anywhere near that level but the way the book is being run is frankly a disgrace. MMs using small trades only to indicate trajaectory and then delayed trades follow. x fingers GLA