Blencowe Resources: Aspiring to become one of the largest graphite producers in the world. Watch the video here.
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So much Angst all of a sudden lol
The new companies require two things, the IP/assets (our contribution) and cash (an investors contribution)
The cash is provided in exchange for shares in the spin off. If ORPH shareholders get, say, 200m shares in poolbeg, an investor providing cash will then get 50m, 100m, 200m (who knows) shares in exchange for cash (the amount of which is unknown at present)
So, if poolbeg is worth £20m at IPO, original ORPH shareholders will only own, say, 50% of that value
All will become clear in the next few weeks post the poolbeg roadshow to raise finance
Why would we be diluted. I do not see share count increases . We just getting our dividends not in cash but in the shares of spin off?
£400m mcap for ORPH is 60p per share
If the spin offs are valued at £300m in a year then i would expect that to be at the expense of at least 50% dilution. So, probably an equivalent of £150m of mcap in ORPH. So, an extra 22.5p
So, as a very rough estimate, £400m ORPH + £300m spin offs (£700m combined ~ the golden $1bn) is probably an equivalent of about 82.5p in ORPH as of today
Spin offs are free shares, but as has rightly been mentioned, we will be diluted significantly so predicting the value of ones ORPH and associated investment in 12 months is difficult
Kapkina, when you do the IPO maths, how are you factoring in the share dilution for OO holders. Its not a straight 1 for 1 spin out, so how does that calculate into the 300mn value of the 4 IPOs?
I got slightly different math.
1. 4 IPOs are 10-20% of 5he current Mcap (at the time of presentation was £200mn). Call it 15% average or £120mn. All 4 IPOs done by this Xmas with 9m lock up. Carl believes these IPOs will 2-3x given experience of similar cos and NASDAQ litsting. Call it 2.5x => £300mn
2. ORPH core. Carl aims substantially exceed consensus 2021 revenue of £50mn. Call it by 20% => £60mn. Carl believes that ORPH should trade at premium to peers which he thinks they trade at 6x revenue. So say ~ £60mn x ~7 = ~£400mn
So within next month the value of spin offs + core ORPH = £300+£400= £700 or 3.5x from the date of presentation.
I have a feeling the £50m will be exceeded. Under promise, over deliver
PE ratio is price per share over earnings per share
Earnings per share is PROFIT over shares
We are loss making at present (to FY 2020) Turnover doesnt = profit, so forward PE's etc are not the best metric for valueing the company at the moment, at least when trying to determine what we should be worth
In the Youtube presentation Leo Toole states...
Possibly £50 million revenue 2021 with a double digit growth of at least 30% for 2022, which gives at least £65 m for 2021, but could be increased.
Divide 2022 revenue £65m by number of shares = 671 million shares = 0.096 on a future PE of 8 ( as mentioned in presentation) = 78p a share ( plus 22p in total for all four spin outs plus a cash dividend possibly) = approx. £1 per share plus
Shares in issue 671m x £1 = company value £671million
Convert £671 m to dollars = $926,245,837.47 US Dollars
1 GBP = 1.38038 USD
1 USD = 0.724437 GBP
Therefore, very basic calculations and room for increases ( especially Spin outs) but its close to CF goal of a billion dollar company sometime in the medium future.