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Wool.
Agree that the economic impact will be dire for 21, with the poorest government in living memory and cabinet filled with intellectual lightweights the UK will suffer worst - add corruption on top as well. Brexit will multiply the impact. With an economy built on consumer spending based on housing wealth, the impact on buy to let with unemployed twenty and thirty somethings going back to parents will cause major price falls.
Hopefully uk will make a small proportion of worldwide sales.
I feel opti is in a much better position than most of my portfolio. Balance sheet is stable without the need for a capital raise, the p&l is highly leveraged to the bottom line on salesincreases. Although revenue growth will take a hit, growth would still be triple digit.
Have held for a year and a half, and intend to hold for at least a further 3 years.to see this play out. As with you I am nursing a slight loss on my 30k shares.
More than 6 months I would argue. Whether that has been a realistic position is another. Post-FY audited accounts, IMHO, and even then I suspect we need to be surprised on the historical multiplier - not unrealistic given the record H1 and what we know historically H2 contributes. If this goes the way I ''HOPE'' then the wider market will look forward with more confidence. There are a number of events to look forward to, which included NASDAQ duel listing is this is the route the company goes...It needs too for obvious reasons.
AquaeSulis01, 21 economy isn't to be ignored, very bad time during 21, UK numbers will hit the fan, this will effect business across the board, hate to think of the knock on effect, effecting things like city shops, housing, airlines all things workers enjoy and much more, we are in for a rough time, as rot sets in. Because of this I doubt my holdings will show profit short term, without the world economy crash we stood a good chance, I'm filing them away and hoping to recover my money' at some point - HOPE!
The balance sheet is improving rather than remaining static as evidenced over consecutive FY results.
Longer term, the potential for LPLDL® to be commercialised as a pharmaceutical drug product is exciting, especially as the role of t-cells to provide immunity against a number of conditions (including Covid-19) is now being explored as are the Interactions between the adaptive immune system and the microbiota
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/201833/cell-immunity-what-does-help-protect/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0332-7
That won't tell you much. Of those on the pie chart, I own this and Shell, that's all.
Fair comment about Shell, they won't be growing much.
And the only growing I'm interested in here is the balance sheet.
I don't doubt we're moving way more product, but the question is are we making any money?
Well looking at your posting history if you do get them at least you'll have one share that has a placing to grow the company rather than just survive in the covid era
Well, let's see where the SP goes in the coming months.
I've got an order in, lower than it is now and I'm totally confident I'll get it.
anon3 regardless of any comment the important ingredient is missing 20, hope that 21 changes this.
IMO a bad time to employ new staff after loss reduction, hope they can prove their worth during 21 full year results, especially with world economy downturn, next year economy number will be extremely bad, sure we all understand that.
What I see before my eyes is a young and growing company with a large number of patented products with a recently reported 400% increase in sales and a large reduction in costs compared to the same period last year. The divisions are now making strong progress towards profitability with more agreements generating revenues, existing partners increasing sales, and more retail partners launching successful new products. The products are now being commercialised with large retail and pharmaceutical partners boosting consumer awareness and confidence in the brands with OptiBiotix now being identified as a key player in the microbiome space within industry.
Yep, that's all you ever hear on here; rerate, rerate, rerate.
I'm not seeing any sign of it and don't expect it after the trading statement either.
It's fascinating how some people just won't see what's right before their eyes.
This OVERALL hasn't moved in five years. Look at the charts on this very site, 52p then, 52p now.
It's just a trader's share, to my mind.
Pidlan a honest reply..
We’ve been expecting it to rerate in the last 6 months and yet the SP is still going down. I wouldn’t hold your breath mate, this might not ever go up at this rate!
I bought back in on Friday. The company has come so far in the last year but the mcap hasn’t followed. I expect this to rerate on the next trading statement as well.
Build the company properly and the sp will eventually follow. I look fwd with some optimism to the Jan 2021 trading update.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200605005105/en/Probiotic-Supplements-Market---COVID-19-Adjusted-Outlook-and-Forecast-2020-2025---ResearchAndMarkets.com
While the outbreak of the COVID-19 has led to the downfall of major business operations, with major distribution outlets being completely shut down in Italy, Taiwan, Germany, the US, India, and Canada, the demand for vitamin and dietary supplements declined significantly. However, the market for dietary supplements, especially immunity oriented probiotic supplements, is expected to witness a surge in demand in the third and fourth quarter of 2020. Therefore, the market is expected to sail through during the forecast period, with the market reviving in the later stage.
SOH's sound is like the shareprice.
Why does SOH sound like Alvin, the lack of decent sound recording has had a impact on the S/P when what is said has been inaudible.
Thanks again Elrico, hadn't listened to that podcast previously and found it very informative.
Not to be confused with distributing presently.
https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/search?q=Pierce
I recorded a podcast with Pierce chairman 5 months ago. It is well worth a listen if you have not already done so. Mike makes a bold prediction. You will not know Mike as I do - he is not the type of fellow to boast, he prefers to allow the business development to do the talking.
https://soundcloud.com/user-957798193-127487236/mike-mcgeever-on-pierce-esim?in=user-957798193-127487236/sets/m-mcgeever
If my old grey is not confused....SOH suggested headcount increase should be offset with lower R&D. The new addition to management does not arrive in her post until Jan, again, if memory serves.
Ref pretax profit for FY2020. This is my minimum expectation. I live in hope SOH surprises the market with something resembling a TU that beats market expectations. Oh, wait, if we exclude Goetz report there isn't any market expectation for FY2020...not officially.
FWIW, (not much I guess ;) I think the market will be pleased with the direction of travel the recurring revenues are going. We had a big hint in the TU for the first half. Royalties are mainly H2, while H1 is largely made up of what I can low grade raw ingredient revenues. Nevertheless, those seeds should flower into record royalties in H2, and with Alfa and Optipharm launching late into H1 and early H2 respectively, H1 2021 should see a significant boost to revenues again.
AquaeSulis01 - the key word in your link is control, while fat cats indulge and that we could end the same with broken food chain, my unsubstantiated opinion.
But based on, ships in dock, aircraft on tarmac, business closure, less vehicles for national delivery IMO.
Obese - If we survive, wearing mask, distancing, losing our natural immunity.
Thanks for your informative input Elrico. The fact that Pierce are distributing the SlimBiome® and LPLDL®, to China and Hong Kong at this point in time is fortuitous. President Xi has ordered a food waste crackown, mainly because of trade wars with Australia, USA and others which coupled with poor harvests and Swine fever has created food shortages, but also because of obesity problems with China overtaking the USA for percentage of obese people in the population.
https://www.livemint.com/news/world/china-asks-citizens-to-control-food-habits-amid-severe-food-crisis-11597752291148.html
elrico I could tell some stories better left off site, once I'm in a position of break even will feel more confident, unfortunately its a long time coming, my understanding, invest in stocks and hopefully make a few quid, rather than lose, plus loss of measly bank interest, even that's better than loss. Noted pre tax profit, does this mean no profit after tax paid, difficult question to answer without Mystic Meg.
Extra staff will impact top line, hopefully increases revenue will take care of it, no guarantee though, lot of PI's sick of being underwater, the above needs saying for a balanced view.
Regardless of any point of view shareprice is foremost, lock in - bad for investors moral imo.
Only my opinion, for what its worth!
I don't wish to come across as rude, but you do come across as someone that has little understanding of the growing pains of a fledgeling company. As any company grows (we hope) its needs change, as does its strategy on occasions. Once upon a time SOH also said we do not need to rise for our existing strategy. However, up stepped to huge opportunities within weeks. H&B and Optipharm. OPTI needed to sell down some SBTX to insure working capital and offer assurance the company was not going to fail to deliver on its product. SBTX is experiencing the same. Both companies have a choice...hold off of moving forward until royalties improve or risk losing the opportunity presented to them. You either trust both BOD's to do the right thing for the company and shareholders or you do not.
I grant you this....the talk of an in-specie divi was premature and should never have been mentioned. That said, I am sure most of us appreciate the asset now on the OPTI books and don't mind forgoing a divi until much later when the potential value will be much greater.
I do not think anyone with an ounce of common sense would argue OPTI will not be impacted by the global pandemic. To what degree is exceptionally difficult to quantify. You may not fully appreciate the business model and that of OPTI's partners, which are 80 or so. Most are ''Intel Inside'' partners, of which the bulk of products are readily available online, as well as in-stores. H&B in-store footfall will have fallen off a cliff, even though they have special dispensation to remain open during the national lockdown. However, online footfall increased by more than 300%, a higher rate than an in-store drop. This can be replicated across online with the right strategy.
You also seem to be ignoring more and more products are now swamping the markets, so even inside local NHS via physicians, pharmacies, etc. OPTI's products are designed to improve health in a variety of ways, a very important growth area at any time, more so now. With more lockdowns around the world, more and more dietary products will be consumed. Many people will still be attempting to lose weight from the previous lockdown, so will not welcome another series of lockdowns. Gyms will remain open this time, which is great news. Some of OPTI's partners are now manufacturing protein shakes with added SlimBiome in them. A great idea and gym bunnies do tend to share new product idea's with friends.
SOH is on record saying it has been easier to Zoom rather than jet-set around the globe, a cost-saving of sorts.
I think your view is too simplistic and pessimistic.
IMHO OPTI will BE at least at FY20. I would wager a small pretax profit with a growing net cash position, which will set the company up very nicely for what I hope will be a NASDAQ duel listing in early 2021. OPTI will be a different animal next year.
A company I am involved with, Pierce will have a major say in the coming weeks and months that will set OPTI up exceptionally well. That I have no fear or doubt of. I suggest you look closely at the guys running Pierce; David Battiston, David Cronin and Mike McGeever, the latter 2 are on the board at AVA Risk Group. Check how they have turned that company around in such a short time. Battiston set up Airmiles and Nectar Card. These guys are no mugs.
Finally, McGeever set up TransGaurd Group with 12 staff, sold 11 years later with 55,000. What does this little bit of info suggest to you?
AquaeSulis01, select your sector and company, did and watched my money vanish, your other point international partnerships, unfortunately world economy is in the same boat. So far any gain here lost, imo show profit under these conditions is imperative. anon said new staff should increase turnover, in theory yes, not always my experience.
GL.