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The Govt faces huge pressures in the absence of substantive scientific data. The science on Covid-19 is very, very incomplete. Science is driven by evidence and evidence is constituted by data. Furthermore, in my view, that data needs to be person-specific as this will give Govt some sort of handle on many issues, viz:
1) Tracking epidemiology of disease in general population.
2) Tracking disparities in incidence/prevalence as regards ethnicity, deprivation, age-group, co-morbidities.
3) Facilitating some sort of immunity passporting.
4) Providing substantive data-base for eventual vaccine roll-out.
Govt will be looking long-term, not least to cover its @rse when the inevitable Royal Commission Enquiry drills down on Govt handling of the crisis which has cost over 40,000 UK deaths, and counting. The Govt will need to be able to establish beyond doubt that they were led by the scientists and that the plans to collect the data, and respond to it, are coherent and as comprehensive as possible. The scientists, do, thereby, become a point of deflection, if not the fall-guys.
My view, for what it's worth, is that Govt will focus on rigorous antibody testing and will delegate antigen testing largely to the private sector. In both categories, there will, I think, be a need for repeat testing.
My take is that they will train-up the 26,000 track-and-test folk to take pin-prick blood samples, take a brief survey of each person tested (age, gender, ethnicity, etc., etc.), location, contact details, maybe even passport identity numbers. Only when this sort of evidence is collected and collated can the science (as far as the general population is concerned) begin.
Investors in the various testing companies are focused on the science of the tests, which is a very important part of the ability to generate the data. But, as far as Govt is concerned, the testing must fall in with the overall strategy.
Govt has got to get this right for the long-term. It has looked pretty hopeless at times and confidence has slipped. For a "command and control" style Govt (which is exactly what we have), it has to button-up as much as possible. Investors look at each day's news, Govt is playing the long game and, for once, is actually putting substance ahead of appearance. It cannot afford to get this wrong again. All in my opinion only. Good luck all and keep safe.
This from today's briefing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52887005?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5ed67b429789ad0655eceffd%26Han****%3A%20Antibody%20tests%20are%20coming%262020-06-02T16%3A21%3A31.840Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:0754f26a-6eeb-490a-bc43-907b61aa0c0d&pinned_post_asset_id=5ed67b429789ad0655eceffd&pinned_post_type=share
Agree that Han**** is a bad liar. How can you say that you haven't pinned down the science yet, when it's already rolled out to the critical workers as of last week, and then claim it will be rolled out to the wider public when the science is pinned down. It's ready, the science is pinned and the communication is just being managed.
My honest opinion is the POC wont be ready for now. Bear in mind though that ODX labs have been ramped up to produce thousands of results from antibody testing. My guess is the test kits will be bought from ROCHE but the results will be analyzed and produced by ODX. Either way the consortium will be involved. Roche wont be able to produce results for 80 million people all on their own, and the govt wouldn't have ODX ramp up their sites for nothing.
*its not worth repeating it all
I laid out my opinion yesterday and it worth repeating it all.
Han**** is a bad liar. Stares into the camera and tries too hard to look sincere when he’s lying.
Watch him when he’s talking about the science around antibodies.
Gov just aren’t ready to say “Ok you lot, there’s your antibody tests, those of you that are positive can just ignore any guidelines we set out from now on”
They are not at that stage yet. Our tests are part of a staged strategy.
As investors we have 2 choices: Wait for the strategy to play out or sell up and chase other rainbows. Your call. Good luck.
AHH, I see Elon.. I didn't watch it so just assumed it was the other ones.. fingers crossed then
They have already said they are buying millions of lab based antibody Tests, stop ramping it has nothing to to with ODX
@Merchant - is that the REACT-2 study or is it another study?
Elonmusk
I think that’s a key line
Soon to be made available to the public
I also think this test is ready to go
They can’t afford to mess this up
So They are just getting all the ducks in Aline
£1 in its way
Gla
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
02-Jun-20 17:07:13 71.00 191,586 Buy* 70.00 71.00 136.03k
Nice
Huge Elephant in the room.
I still stand by my thoughts that this test is good to go, its the app and the timing of the "so what" i.e. what does it mean to test positive for antibodies. The first phase of the antibody study ended last week.
Sir John that was your moment and you blew it shades of Trappist monk lol
They keep brushing over it because it's commercially sensitive, as stated by Van-Tam when he was pushed on it
didnt sound any time soon :(
Mmmm bit worrying they didnt even mention RTC. Brushed over it to the lab tests and even said science wasnt proven
Govt promise antibody tests