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This was my point yesterday.
If we are deemed to be selling our product too cheaply an operator will snap up ODX - I agree with a 50% share uplift will take out this business
The new owners will just increase prices to fund the transaction - it’s how it works
The tax on the profits of ODX are then not possibly enjoyed by the U.K, we see this time and time again.
I don’t think a takeover is a good thing for the Company/ UK , ODX is an engineering gem, it needs to make a fair profit from the Government in comparison to other tests being sold to them, reinvest the proceeds and ramp up manufacturing capacity including R&D/ Training , especially for young people.
The share price then reflects this investment and it makes it more expensive for an operator to buy ODX on the cheap.
As it stands today the RTC can’t even sell its products for a higher margin to a 3rd party without the consent of the Government.
We need ODX to earn the same pro rata profits as other overseas companies are enjoying from our Government or at least be allowed to sell them into the open market.
I think we shall see ODX starting to make a break upwards soon.
Can see it moving up already.
There has been an overhang of short-term profit-seekers, who I think are now largely gone, the recent period has seen a large transfer to those waiting for the next leg up. Obviously, there are still traders.
The news has been painfully slow for us PI's and our short attention spans, but for everyone but the derampers it is clear where this is going.
Next week's investor presentation, which includes the CFO should be illuminating, and I hope for more substantive news in advance.
As was pointed out, the presentation is aftermarket hours, so expect market moving information.
The SP should start rising from now in anticipation of that news before, during and after the presentation.
So much to come, still expecting 200p plus this year.
Aberdeenman
I suspect that buying and commissioning high-volume LFT production equipment is not as straightforward as it sounds. This is highly specialist machinery for which there are few suppliers and limited manufacturing capacity. It’s also not like buying a toaster, unboxing it and plugging it in. It may be that lead times are long.
MB - I was just venting really, because I get fed up with the daily curve of SP drop on opening and then pick up to flatten out. I'm all for a more considered approach to RNS strategy/PR, as slow and steady SP improvement is more sustainable than spikes which simply get traders excited. I'm also conscious that the SP has x7 this year (although I only got in at 51p) so CK is doing something right. That said, though, we are in a bubble at the moment given second wave COVID and I do think the PR could/should be better - particularly if you look at how other stocks have performed more recently - we are still at the same SP as 15 September despite now selling to the professional market, potential £75m order etc etc . I'll be interested to see what they say next week. Hopefully it will be a bit more salesy than the turgid performance last time. I think that is why they have done it after hours as the SP tanked during the call last time. I'm not expecting too much this time - try and dampen my expectations!
A takeover is the most logical final outcome for ODX. Pretty sure that will happen at some point but not before we ramp up production to something significant, as the BoD would decline offers even at a 50% premium to today's SP., given they are on their journey.
City
"Perhaps things like packaging have already been ordered in their millions ?"
Yes they have as I've seen the evidence. >c.20m last time I was made aware.
Bit of a gamble to produce all these packages with no orders. Doors about to be blown off at some point surely.
Pawnking - a good problem because at the top end of our planned capacity the upside is substantial from here. The plan in the prospectus said £1.9m for 500k a week in a new facility in Dundee. I am sure they could make 3 x that amount available from the resource they already have. Abingdon had a new charge registered in the summer. I am certain we could raise finance with what we have. CKs comments on further expansion plans this month were the most interesting thing i have heard here, and looking forward to seeing what these plans are and hoping it shows the right ambition.
Agree i have said before i think the best thing in national interest would be a takeover by one of the big boys to take Omegas portfolio to the masses. I would think they would have to get the Mologic Antigen tests on board first.
Yes he did and I remember watching it... when this lands... it's by by 90's
"The only thing he needs to do is buy more bloody machines..simple.At least he will have the plan on how he’s going to achieve this by month end...that’s if he’s allowed to tell us..lol
Buy more machines...hopefully this was done months ago."
If you watched the last presentation, he told us they were doing just that...
FFB - You are so right. It should have been a priority some time ago to buy and install the kit. The biggest drag on ODX is the lack of capacity. If we produced 5 million a day, no doubt globally someone somewhere would buy them... come on CK. Splash the cash and get the machines in. I wouldnt even mind a placing to raise the funds if he had confirmed short term delivery dates for the kit. Unfortunately, ODX is uber-conservative and I think they are in the 'wait and see how it goes' before committing to CAPEX.
We still have over a month before we are at 200k per week production volumes FFS. I think this is where a takeover would be better for the UK/Global position. We have the knowhow but not the capacity. If Abbot, AZ, GSK, Roche etc bought up. Within a week we would be producing millions per week.
Regarding the debate about the £75m contract or budget or whatever..... what's the difference between NCYT contract and Abigndon contract status? Nothing by the looks of it. Both contracts for supply, that have been dressed up differently because the government want people to know they can deliver as many PCR tests as possible, but they are not ready for the public to know they have antibody tests up their sleeve.
http://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W41/736296992
http://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W43/737280030
yes Benny-Hill after researching about the vaccines it will be neeeded for a long time.
There are 2 ahead of the curve ... others are failing at the mo until their products get to market...
Definitely undervalued here happy to take more down here
Tests are being sent out... orders are coming in...
You have NCYT and then you have ODX... sadly Avacta and GDR are miles behind.
I have taken a position here now.
THIS IS THE PLACE TO BE.