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To achieve herd immunity the chains of transmission are already broken and the disease stops spreading at any real pace. A long, long way to go until then unfortunately for humanity (fortunately for ODXs bottom line).
And while I am confident immunity from real infection will last for years in >99.99% of people, vaccine I am not convinced at all, and more likely will be ~6-12 months. Depends on the B and T cell response of the vaccines which we won’t know for a long time yet. In the mean time, AB testing!
Herd immunity, question is how do you figure out who is immune and who should have the vaccine and who is at risk? In my opinion demonstrates the need for testing.
The jury is still out from what I understand....time , a lot of time will tell.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12920668
COVID immunity better than first thought?
The potential is quite signifcant and longer term the industry has a big role to play in the fight against new variants of all known viruses and newly evolved ones.
I think the numbers in the finncap report are very conservative as there are a lot of unknowns. Once concrete orders start rolling in, we'll have some q°visibility. At the moment I'd work on GP margin % basis multiplied by projected revenue. TBH I was working on 60% using the historical figures. Even the sales numbers can only be best guestimates of production targets, the number are pretty well masked.
Jollygood - one final point before i crack on with the work i've been dipping in and out of all day..... the margins in the finncap report are largely based on the Mologic/Visitect tests being export tests largely to lower income markets. I think the visitect antibody test is getting some traction here so we might achieve a better price. Also the antigen test Mologic set out to make was aimed at lower income countries, but i suspect they expected much more competition than they currently have and now could have a product that are right up with the best this country can procure. They want to be socially responsible on price, but there might be potential for higher price per unit. We already know the ABC-19 test price is higher than indicated. So I am fairly confident finncap is a prudent view.
Personally i think the diagnostics industry is elevated in importance from what it was in 2019. The expertise and the business that Omega have will come out of this worth considerably more. They will learn so much from this, create new alliances etc. This will show what can be achieved. It may open the floodgates to a a major shift in lateral flow testing for other diseases. Plus the industry was already predicted to grow many times over before covid. Plus they will also have a war chest of free cash flow to invest. CK from the outset has wanted to build manufacturing capacity with a view to continued use beyond covid.
Merchantbanker, thanks once again, signed up and logged in. Seen the report. Gives a good broad overview. Margins from the info given come in at 52%. I note that historical margins have been consistent at 64% give or take based on review of historical financial statements (albeit non covid related). Curious about the antigen numbers though?
Thankyou, I think people should realise that odx is as said before not a one trick pony!!! Yes the covid could be a real wow , money maker for all but the other parts of the business could be the cash cow that keeps the sp going. All in my opinion dyor
Lovejoy - It is very difficult to state what the core business is worth today as if it wasn't for covid, Food and Cd4 would be priced somewhere between current value and future potential and it's hard to know how much the market would price in. Again Finncap give a range on food and cd4 with a sum of the parts valuation.
Merchant, you seem a educated person, sorry if this has been asked before, but forget the covid side of the business for now what is the share price worth on all the other parts of odx ?? Obs only your opinion promise won't hold you to it.
you will need to sign up. Search for Omega its the one the day after the fundraise. It's not perfect but it will give you a good idea. Remember Elisa is low take up and LFT are 2x bigger.
Thanks Merchantbanker. Couldn't access it via the ODX website to the finncap link, got an error 404 message numerous times. Cheers.
FInncap report is on their website under research
Real 112
Buy back in , stop de-ramping if that's the right word and enjoy the ride !!! Only invest what you can afford and give it time, obviously only my opinion dyor; ps no body could have been more frustrated than me I can assure you!!!
I agree no boom more doom
Merchantbanker, some interesting stuff there. Can I ask how you arrived at them costings? In addition my understanding based on the RNS was 200k tests per week in November; 100,000 in September. Anyone have copy of the finncap report 22/6?
People sell .Its only gone up today its not if its a 80p or £2
I'll tell you why people are selling, they have dreamt about massive profits and have not thought for one second that it could loose money, the old saying a fool and his money are soon parted!!! These people are not investors but would be better buying a scratch card. Nobody likes seeing the drops but it happens and their £1000 life savings means everything to them!! Obviously only my thoughts dyor
Merchant - if it was easy as doing fag packet valuations like that. Odx wouldn’t be sat at 48p and sneller wouldn’t of dumped his stock at the price he did.
Yeah i think the reagent is the key. It's one of the reasons the mass testing products are taking so long, but i do think they have had time since this was identified back in March/April to scale up. I think it was in one of the Mologic presentations they mentioned it and they looked at a number of options. But based on Mologic's goal to produce a test for low income countries i'm expecting cost to be favourable. I think i did also read somewhere they were expecting reagents to be supplied for the low income country supply at cost or close but i can't recall where.
MB, we get to the same £gross profit numbers per month give or take - think you had a typo but get your drift , agree on your share price target / sentiment
I was expecting the antigen test to be slightly more expensive to manufacture due to the reagent / buffer
Cant see any one being reckless enough to short the stock and as you say why would anyone sell these shares at 40p?
Oops small mistake! Tests per week not month
For Antigen test i reckon around £2.50 total cost, £5 selling price. CK says 50% margin and Fincapp say £5 per test.
So with 1.8m Antigen tests per month and 0.2m UK RTC tests per WEEK (probably the ideal product mix for profitability) they can make just over £20m profit per month, £244m per year. Assume £50m a year corp costs being prudent, with say £10m profit from core business first year, again being prudent, we can work on a FY net profit of circa £204m. Earnings multiplier of 5, which is low (industry is 9) gives you just over £1bn mcap (currently about £5.60 per share).
3/4 months away from getting to that level and people are throwing shares away at 40p!!! Clueless. So many people say it's pie in the sky, but the business plan is there to see. Calculations very easy to do. 2m tests is nothing in the grand scheme of the global testing requirement. For me tests at that level until at least 2025. Oh and they can probably increase it further still.
Just...Why are people selling? Christmas money? Lockdown finishing, let's get sh1 tfaced?
Just trying to work that figure out, that would be a hell of a percentage rise!!!!