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Buying NWG is a little bit like investing in a share of the UK economy. The price of it is driven largely by what investors *think* is going to happen to the UK economy in future more than what is actually happening in the moment. The SP is affected to a degree by the performance of the Bank, but nothing like the way it is affected by news reporting on anything that can be interpreted as having a macroeconomic impact (positive or negative). What appears never to be properly taken into consideration is the Bank's CET1 ratio; it's measure of strength. The SP was sky high back in the days when the CET1 was driven so low that the bank went bankrupt at the first sign of crisis, and it's not fully taken into consideration these days, with the SP having crashed this year and all the while the CET1 was so high that it guaranteed the Bank a safe passage through the pandemic from the beginning. My advice with this one is to pay less attention to Group results (though worth a read), and much more attention on the big ticket news items. If you can predict what the news is going to report in future then you can get ahead of the changes in this SP. Sounds impossible but, for example, a vaccine breakthrough was always going to happen; it was just a matter of time. The next big mover will probably be something to do with Brexit in the coming weeks (i.e. confirmation that we are 'crashing out' when the transition period ends on NYE, or some sort of 11th-hour deal with Barnier). A UK/US trade deal (or not) is also likely to have an effect. Dividends may gradually attract more investors but the Bank will never pay a dividend that could be construed as excessive, and I personally cannot fathom why the SP gets written down by the Analysts on the ex-div date when they don't positively meddle in the SP as the Bank's capital reserves climb. What will be interesting to see is whether the massive level of support and stimulus announced by the Treasury since the pandemic will change the government's appetite in terms of the price at which it is willing to sell its shareholding. Any time UKG sells NWG shares to investors at less than the price it bought for (£5), the Government (and the Bank) will take a reputational hit in the press but the temptation to sell may be greater now given all the billions it has spent this year. Those share sales will always depress the price initially but the closer we get to 0% government ownership the better, and ducking below 50% for the first time will be a major milestone (currently 62.4%).
NatWest CEO promises dividends 'as soon as possible'
Obviously delighted our penny share is now back in double digits (12p in 'real' terms once you strip out the share consolidation a while back).
Wholly agree with many recent posters and would reiterate the Executive team shoukd stick to restoring the Bank to financial health for the benefit of its shareholders and staff, both of which have been downtrodden in recent years.
Oh, and cut out the window dressing nonsense of such things as sp consolidation, costly name changes and now socio-political policy statements aimed at an entirely different agenda.
In other words, I think most shareholders would prefer the Exec team simply stuck to the day job, let the results speak for themselves and collectively keep their traps shut for a while.
And reporting a CET of 18.2%. A huge buffer to pay dividends or buy back shares
Natwest posts forecast-beating Q3 profit
Fri, 30th Oct 2020 07:13ShareCast
(Sharecast News) - UK taxpayer-owned bank NatWest on Friday reported better-than-expected third quarter profits and made lower bad debt provisions relating to the coronavirus pandemic.
The bank posted a £355m pre-tax profit for the three months to September 30, compared to estimates of £75m.
Bad loan provisions came in at £254m, compared to the £628m forecast. The bank said full-year impairments would be at the lower end of a £3.5bn - £4.5bn range previously given.
Utter utter none sense. You wouldn’t be talking figures if this was true
Nah. Not a poor trader. Made over £1.4m after tax since the banking crisis mainly through RBS but some of the trades were Barclays. The bungalow I bought with some of the proceeds in 2015 has increased in value by more than £200k since then so very relaxed with my position. If I lost the lot I wouldn’t course go ouch but would not need to return to work. I can sit and wait for 4 years so hopefully in that time I will be back to break even. If not I will sell some as and when needed.
Jeepers, and I thought I was a poor trader with losses of some 20K??!!
Good to see this share making a bit of a recovery. I have recovered losses of over £100k since it hit the early 90's pence. Now only sitting on a loss of just under £200k!! I need it to get to around £1.80 to break even. Fortunately have sufficient living funds for the next 4 years to avoid having to sell. I will just sit tight, hope it doesn't go bust and be patient. I have been here before but not quite at these levels