The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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Neil, on the 14th May you said the below. Trying to get cheaper entry are you? Why else would you be here?
'Wow , the stop loss has just kicked in , so that’s me . Good luck folks , you will need it .'
Are they not due to release Q1 results as well though??
That should give a better idea of whats going on, regional breakdowns etc
Neil would you like to explain 1) To much competition? You do know a lot of the players are losing Abbots and FDA removing approval. There is only a handful of players now and we are gold standard. So please explain your thinking. 2) Testing scaling back? It is actually scaling up, as this is getting life moving again, hence mobile test and UK at 200,000 plus.
Look forward to your detailed response.
My opinion is sit tight if people and the market cant hack ncyt selli g such high volumes and making a profit . THEN SO BE IT .Im Staying in
Too much competition now , testing will scale back , the big gains are long gone .
Downhill
It would be nice if they didn't muddy the waters combining sales and orders.
Would have been great to see monthly sales.
Hopefully in a months time we will get at least another guidance on total sales so we can calculate
what actual sales were for June.
The RNS reveals all.
** SALES AND ORDERS - increasing by £30m in May **
2 June: Therefore, currently the total sales and confirmed orders are €135 million (£120 million).
29 April: Primerdesign has sold, received orders for or has been contracted to deliver over £90 million (€103 million) of its COVID-19 test.
** MANUFACTURING CAPACITY is minimum 4m, maximum 8m in May **
29 April: Novacyt announced plans to increase manufacturing capacity to approximately eight million tests per month. The Company is on track with this scale-up and expects to achieve at least this level of output during June 2020.
15 April: Primerdesign has now achieved the target run-rate of manufacturing its COVID-19 test at a rate of four million tests per month.
So, taking the minimum capacity of 4m, then adding the 1.5m Zimbabwe order, gives average price of £5.45. Using a higher manufacturing capacity of 6m (my estimate) or the unlikely 8m, the average price would be even lower. A lot of people were running figures based off £8+ per test, so this is a quite significant reduction if so. Note you have had tweets from PrimerDesign in the last few weeks saying same day shipping on orders - therefore one can infer that they are not selling everything they make anymore. All in all, I'm not as confident as before on this stock.
But it does state "the initial purchase order for the first 500 000 has been received"
The remaining purchase order will be over the next coming weeks. Says to me they have ordered 1.5 mill, paid for 500 000 and will pay for the rest later.
Don't forget the 1.5m Zimbabwe order. 5.5m tests made/sold/contracted to deliver in May combined. Not 4m.
£30 million divided by 4 million tests gives you £7.50 per test...
@ShearClass I don't estimate 8m tests, but 6m midpoint. Even if you take the lowest level of 4m tests produced and sold in May, that still gives an average price per test of £5.45 (£30m/5.5 tests). Still a big drop versus the £8+ earlier.
Utter clueless muppet.
LOL.
You cannot take a shred of negativity from those numbers.
What sales did Qiagen have $1.53bn
What did Thermo Fischer pay--$10bn.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/thermo-fisher-finally-lands-qiagen-11-5b-deal
“while manufacturing capacity I estimate at 6m (was ramping up from 4m to 8m in May) means average price was £4. That's a massive drop from previous £8 levels.”
You what? 8m was never going to be achieved before June, this is stated many times! Rather than a glass half empty for no reason approach, how about using logic and thinking; we probably sold just over 4m at around £7 a test?
I was expecting higher than £30m increase for May. Only reason I can think of is that pricing must be weaker. Zimbabwe order is 1.5m (tender so probably needed to lower price to be competitive) while manufacturing capacity I estimate at 6m (was ramping up from 4m to 8m in May) means average price was £4. That's a massive drop from previous £8 levels.
Hopefully this is only a one off month just to win the Zimbabwe order, but need to keep an eye on pricing going forward. I have 10m tests @ £6 going forwards atm, which means market at 330p share price is pricing in sales through to November.