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Hi Cautious - good post
In my A4 graph book (high Tech stuff) I have plotted total revenue for each month from July and broken it down into Legacy/saas platform/Live scores revenue etc, part RNS fact, part assumption - we are thinking on very similar lines.
Looking forward to updating at the beginning of January - may have to upgrade to an A3 graph book!!
Like you, never mind if I am proved wrong as long as we end up with the correct answer.
Great podcast yesterday, and nice to see the SP showing signs of life again this afternoon! Thought I’d take a revised post-podcast look at this estimate of revenue breakdown. What I learned:
- >$80k monthly rev was c.$83k and this was for October, including the $14k from Argentina which was received in Nov. This is great, it means in Nov they must have been past this already.
- ME said they put out revenue figures around July and $83k shows 85% growth from these. As others have pointed out that means growth from c.$45k, which give or take rounding and currency variations, is comprised 100% by the Streams revenue which was reported at about £35k/month in July. I.e. Zero or negligible legacy business revenue.
- The 70k subscribers is entirely new subscribers. No legacy users accounted for.
So against my $73k estimate MOS must have been earning c.$10k more in Mexico and/or Streams Data. Given Mexico’s 10k subscribers were reported on 13 Oct, this estimate probably represents a good average for the month, and the $12k/month probably only has $2-3k wiggle room to the upside for October. So my guess is Streams Data had added c.$7-8k/month recurring revenue by October.
It’s all looking good. I was really surprised to see the share price this low again now that hard cash is demonstrably rolling in and given the BoD has a few continuous months of consistent delivery on promises behind them. But you have to put your money where your conviction is, so I doubled my holding with a hefty (for me) ISA top up sub-0.4p this week.
As always, appreciate discussion and corrections. I think it is Cunningham’s Law that says the best way to get a correct answer out of the internet is not to post a question, but to post the wrong answer. ;)
Morning Hep. Haha, true, guess I wasn’t sleeping too well.
Maybe I saw and was influenced by your numbers… They look eminently sensible to me. Even with +/-5000 in each of Mexico and Argentina, it still suggests a great first month for Brazil. But of course, as you say, these are guesses until official numbers arrive.
Good morning Cautious, you have been working through the night!
With regard to debate and numbers this was what I posted on the 25th Nov:
"Always a bit dangerous but my GUESS for numbers at the end of November is as follows:
Mexico: 20,000
Argentina: 15,000
Brazil: 10,000"
We appeared to have used similar logic to arrive at figures for Mexico and Argentina
With regard to Brazil I was aware of the larger population but also took into account that it was only the first month so did not know how long it would take to get going. In hindsight I would agree with you that it now looks as though the Brazil numbers may be in fact a lot larger than my original estimate.
All GUESSWORK of course but my revised schedule taking into account your comments is now as follows:
Mexico: 20,000
Argentina: 15,000
Brazil: 30,000
Other: 5,000 ??
On those 70,000 Streams service users (or “monetizable users”, per tonight’s tweet)…
I’m going to assume that Streams and legacy business users are low relative to LiveScores. Tonight’s tweet certainly implies the figure links to Mexico, Argentina and Brazil.
Mexico:
26/07 - launch
02/09 - >3500
30/09 - >7200
13/10 - >10000
Argentina:
01/10 - launch
01/11 - >6000
18/11 - c.10000
Brazil:
01/11 - launch
Assuming pretty constant growth continuation in Mexico and Argentina, we may be at, say, 20,000 and 15,000 users respectively in these countries.
Unless I am vastly underestimating Streams and legacy user numbers, this would suggest 30,000 - 35,000 users signed up in the first month in Brazil. Compared to 6,000 in the first month in Argentina, which led to $14k revenue, on a similar affiliate revenue-dominated model. This number of users would be completely in line with the relative population sizes. I feel like the market’s expectations, if it has any, are about to be blown away when Brazil revenue lands.
Interesting to try and work out where those revenues are coming from, and see what it tells us about the unknowns. Here’s my brief stab. I’m entirely open to challenge/debate.
What we know about revenue split from most recent segment updates:
- Streams (12 July 2021, previous reported major contract win) - c.£35k/month - about $47k/month
- LiveScores Mexico (13 Oct 2021) - 10,000 subscribers. Assuming $1/week x c.0.3 split to MOS (per my previously estimated range of 0.2-0.33) this translates to about $12k/month. Growth since then unknown.
- Argentina - as city says, affiliate revenue is billed for previous month so presumably c.$14k in Nov (per 18 Nov 2021)
- Brazil - per above, zero in Nov.
- Legacy - ???
These segment estimates (albeit rough and slightly out of date) add to $73k/month, plus any legacy business, and growth since the quoted dates. Compared to >$80k as reported in the RNS, shows we’re in the right ball park. For me the best candidate to fill the gap is likely growth in Mexico revenues and/or the Streams ISBA client win. Streams revenue seems to rise in more lumpy steps with enterprise contract wins.
I think this shows that the legacy business must have now dropped off to almost, if not, zero, and that the new business is growing rapidly to replace it. There comes a point when it’s not worth the admin costs to keep a declining venture running so I wouldn’t be surprised if they had closed out most of the legacy segments. There’s room here for growth in the Mexico numbers to look very healthy indeed.