Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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What is so great? feels completely desperate to me
That is great... There is only going to be one main question though lol... unless that is answered in the RNS before hand :)
More details to follow on Monday with an official company RNS https://twitter.com/Share_Talk/status/1677298692599042049?s=20
Geopolitics can be fluid. Maybe they did once have a very good relationship with the Malawi government, but global events and behind-the-scenes international 'negotiations' have altered this. Or maybe it is just the government dragging things out for a better deal? Hopefully the latter, but IMO the management need to update us on the current status.
I also agree that the strike price for their options should have been far higher, but like you, obviously hope that it is a sign of confidence that it will - finally and soon - be concluded.
Certainly not encouraged to increase my small holding here at the present time. Also not going to sit tight for an indefinite period either, if the months continue to roll by without completion.
Anyway, let us hope for good news soon. Or at the very least, a clear update. Will not be impressed if we continue to experience radio silence until the next fund raise request, for example.
I have been a loyal LTH in other similar outfits, given extended time and benefit of the doubt to management, adding along the way etc and paid the price. So my willingness to follow a similar path here is extremely limited.
West needs over $25 billion in Rare Earths to match China...
'But out of more than 20 projects outside China that could produce some 20,000 tons of NdPR every year, Goldman believes that "only 2-3 of these projects can get off the ground this decade."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-says-west-needs-over-25-bln-investments-rare-earths-match-china-2023-07-06/
Well we know one project that thanks to the Malawian Gov rug pulling games won't be one of them
My big frustration is that the Board don’t communicate and treat PI’s with disdain and I’ve been a shareholder since Sep-17. They have done nothing to shore up the slide in share price, they cannot even be bothered to update their websites. I contacted Will 10 months ago with concerns and again subsequently and have not even had the courtesy of an acknowledgement, let alone seen any improvements in comma. I suspect the MDA is still progressing given they have all recently awarded themselves cut price options upon approval of the MDA. The share price was 25p last June when we were expecting the MDA to be concluded imminently.
I think many of us were under the impression that management, and Mkango as a corporate entity, had established a very good working relationship with the Malawi government over the past 10 years. Now either that was never the case or something has changed. I mean to withhold the license to build the mine after all the hoops they have jumped through certainly seems to suggest a falling out. But as I said, maybe the relationship was never that good and we are guilty of wishful thinking
A good, bullish overview, GLR1990. Nevertheless, my take on the last raise was that it was primarily focused on getting the MDA over the line, based on that RNS. Sure, it mentioned other things, but that stood out front and centre to me. Do you disagree? Genuinely open to a different view, if applicable.
Say that hold firm scenario plays out, and we just sit tight in a staring competition with the government.
How long is our current cash runway to manage existing operational and corporate costs?
MDA finalisation not only gives the scope for a sale or partial sale etc, but also IMO better potential lending terms for a range of other things, for obvious reasons.
I bought in here after that most recent raise, so am not one of the (perhaps understandably) miffed longer term holders who were not entirely pleased at the discounted raise at the time.
Still long here, FWIW, and joined in part due to that decent CEO purchase outside of the raise....but as time ticks by, the risks increase considerably, IMO.
'Frances Wall: Well firstly, that there’s a real dominant player, which is China. There are definitely deposits in other areas, many of which have been under development for more than ten years now and could start up pretty quickly if someone decided to come along and pay the money. In Malawi for example, or Namibia. Stuff’s there in the ground, and at quite an advanced exploration stage, but only if people want to pay for it. '
https://www.mining-technology.com/features/what-role-does-the-uk-play-in-the-rare-earth-sector/
Todays article
OK, unbelievably frustrated but here is my view
Current market cap £23m
HyProMag 80/20 ownership with Cotec - current face value of ~£15m (so £12m net to MKA)
- we can argue about the valuation of this, cotec have brought a lot to the table and financed us for 12 months, we have two fully funded plants and three projects, with potentially three more in the US, the value we can add to this 'face' value entity is astronomical as we have already proven when we took a 42% stake for £500K
Milestones
- commercial NDPR H2 2023 (will double the valuation as it will then be proven)
- testing with auto manufactures in powerful magnets (will double it again and likely 4x from initial stage, as will be proven for a target market)
- Scale up (here is where the 10x to 100x comes into play, minus dilution along the way)
That leaves £10m face value for Songwe, which is around 2% of its NOV, you are not going to find a construction ready project even in the worst corners of Africa for that price, period (its already had $15-20m spent on just the DFS which was a success)
Whatever is causing the delay has knocked potentially ~£25m off the market cap here - however as it is a mining project, the material stays in the ground (not like technology which can be replaced or become outdated) aka the value is still there, albeit a drop due to macros impacting spot prices / basket prices
As much as id like to move on, selling the project during a very bad climate when we dont really need to sell it (we just raised funds only 3 months ago, £100K from the CEO) is exactly what Malawi and any potential buyers want us to do, to feel the pressure and let it go for cheap because the SP is declining and we are running out of funds
So my advice, as frustrating as it is, is to hold firm even if it takes another year - as investors we need to accept that this was and still potentially is our flagship project, its worth a small fortune IF/WHEN fully funded and construction begins, imagine we offloaded it for £10/£20m only to see a company like Lynas pick it up and make the projects we all envision in 2025/26, imagine NdPr and basket prices do rise as Adamas et al predict and we offload it today at a bargain price? That is not the BoD I have backed for several years, thats not the BoD that found Talaxis and got them to invest $14m in the project and take a 33% stake (now 29% in Mkango), its not the BoD that found Julian Treger and Braam Jonker, collaborated with some of the best mining experts in the business, who have a clear vision and track record of creating enormous value, its not the BoD that found a gem in HyProMag and worked a 42% stake for £500K before making arguably the deal of the decade taking the rest of it for £5m or thereabouts, its not the BoD that has found nearly £10m in EU/UK funding for the same technology
For a small minnow, we have tremendous value
You may be right but recognise that half market value of Songwe would be c20p.
Fingers-crossed for 9p.
"Refine, recycle, recycle"
PR company are frantically trying to rework the "mine, refine, recycle" slogan.
It's possible that the MDA is now just an unnecessary weight on the share price. Malawi are proving themselves uninvestable.
An option could be for the board to read the room and sell songewe for cheap with no MDA (or mothball it). Then at least the market won't continue to think that there will be big dilutions or fund raises to keep chasing rainbows in an inept African country.
Full steam ahead with the recycling plants IMO. Would be good if the board actually got some return on investment from our new PR company as well.
The second politics - I should add
Read Crumbs link. Scroll down to politics. Should be there
What evidence do you have of this Ampthill?
So they’ve been to Moscow and now the Malawi President has just returned from China with financial promises to elevate Malawis infrastructure. Certainly playing the field.
Which article are you talking about please? And what is this visit to Moscow?
Unfortunately no, but no worries. I appreciate you trying!
Maybe this link will work?
https://www-ft-com.ezp.lib.cam.ac.uk/content/bfa3dc91-ea17-4c68-8be1-37a677bacd13
Could you copy and paste the article? It's behind a paywall and I feel too poor to cough up for the fee after this dismal share performance
Https://www.ft.com/content/bfa3dc91-ea17-4c68-8be1-37a677bacd13
FX stalemate