We spoke to new Sterling Energy CEO Tony Hawkins about the latest changes happening at the company. Watch the full video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Those cheeky brokers eh fairdealer. Raising the price to get a placing done again lolololol.
I wouldnt bother here supercharger, this poster was given a royal hiding on our last spat to come back with barely legible insults and general waffle I didnt even bother dignifying a response to, whilst not once addressing further questioning about motives here and previous comments made. They say you reach someones mental capaity limits when they no longer directly respond to questioning and reply with vague, general, nonsensical insults. I hit this posters mental limit in two comments which i think was a personal record. Then again, it was obvious we werent dealing with a mensa member given the poor analytical skills that was easy to shred to pieces.
Nil pwa credibility, not very smart and a confirmed by default disgruntled armchair troll. Probably best to take this one with a pinch of salt. Better still, disregard entirely.
Of course, i'd be happy for you to redeem yourself fairdealer and earn a sliver of respectibility back by you acknowledging your poor analytical skills and apologising to us all here for your overzealous trolling whilst MARS was bouncing off its low ;). Or provide you with a second opportunity to redeem yourself and explain your poor commenting and your true motives here?
More chance of hell freezing over.
Before covid, Marstons we’re trying to find 200 million to pay off a debt that needed to be paid by the (beginning I think) of 2022,
They aimed to meet this deadline by:
Selling circa 170 ‘disposal list’ pub sites
Their average yearly profit was around £75 million
They had worked out that the disposal pubs plus the profits between the two dates would make them easily able to satisfy that deadline.
As Covid broke out they arranged a £70 million deferral or flexibility in the finance, leaving them in a position where they needed to use the money from the sale and half of the money originally expected from earnings.
They own EIGHT breweries across the country, their logistics firm and around 1400 pub sites, they have plenty of options to arrange to pay whatever deficit there is on the deadline.
Plus, with Carlsberg sniffing around With more than enough funds to both pay off Marstons debt completely AND outright buy the entire firm, I would not be too worried about Marstons finances!
When the pub I run was owned by Marstons I was on a contract that is a simple ‘low cost’ entry as a tenant but on paper sounds a lot like a management position, you pay a fixed amount as a security bond to enter the agreement and have a long list of ‘rules’ to follow, basically Marstons pay the rent, gas, electric, some operational costs and they buy the stock for the bar, you pay for staff, business rates, a few bills and if you want to run a kitchen you pay those costs too, in the arrangement the tenant receives 30% of the takings from any wet sales,
We moved from that deal to a standard tenancy on completion of the sale from Marstons to Admiral, I have worked in venues on a multitude of different contracts and have many friends and old co-workers from over the years who are involved in the pub/hospitality trade at all levels,
Any recent conversations I’ve had with anyone working with Marstons or running Marstons tenancy or share-agreements have been positive, the ‘eat out scheme’ has brought a lot of foot fall to most venues
Also, one MASSIVE benefit for Marstons is that the ‘retail’ and ‘foundation’ agreements are all pubs that DO NOT pay them any rent for the buildings, so those pubs have not accrued a debt of rent to Marstons and are all reasonably viable businesses even during covid, most of the pub companies have charged rent to all tenants the whole way through Covid lockdown and this is a mega strain on the finances of these venues and honestly could result in a large percentage of the pub sector to just give up and close their businesses, in the medium to long term, this won’t affect us at shareholder level because the businesses will get a spring clean and be offered to new tenants.
All in all, marstons have a varied selection of contracts in their pubs and I would (with no figures or solid information -simply using my knowledge and background in the sector) confidently say that Marstons are in a strong position because their Managed and Semi-Managed outlets will prop up the leased and tenanted section and enable the whole estate to limp through Covid reopening restrictions,
Most of the other pub companies use a 3rd party logistics and brewing companies to stock their outlets, as marstons use their own fleet (although obviously that has overheads of its own) they continue to supply their own manufactured product to their own pubs, thus continually moving their brewery stock and bringing cash in the tills with less middlemen to pay inbetween.
I’m probably just rambling on now! I suppose that could be classed as an introduction..
I’m currently sat on 500 Marstons shares to retain my discount card! I was up to over 50,000 Marstons shares a few weeks ago but I’ve taken the risk of moving the funds to another area for a few weeks! Hopefully I don’t miss the quite obvious double-up that will inevitably come here!
Anyone who quite deliberately inflates a company's assets by more than 40% and ignores fundamentals , should come with a wealth warning.
If the company is to make the progress planned by RF, for it's residual core business ( unimportant to some it would seem) , additional funding will be required. Funding, some of us have been suggesting for sometime, the receipt from Carlsberg will not be sufficient.....the Company appear to be planning some form of additional funding as others within the sector have done. IMO additional funding is necessary to give the Company a runway necessary to achieve it's objectives for the Pub and Accommodation business, and strengthen the balance sheet.
I can only assume the negative waves we have here on the web-site are to try and pull the share price down lower for a new lower re-entry point.
I am interested only in looking forward to the next sales figures which will be significantly improved in my opinion. It is interesting that when the share price for Marstons is increasing at respectable rate or recovery we are met with this negativity where long term shareholders should be happy. This Company is one of my top picks for investment return on price. If anyone is unhappy then they can sell their shares and move on I am here to stay. Good luck whatever your decision we are in a free Country with free choice which is why I always try and support our Beers although in my local supermarkets Marstons Beer sells quite often faster than we can get it in the trolley. Happy days!!
Supercharger, you do need to familiarise yourself with Marstons debt position. It is all very well adopting a blase' attitude towards loans which have to be repayed, £350m in 2023. The rates are fixed on the majority and Marstons, you may have noticed obtained changes to Loan note undertakings in May. Add to this the temporary facility of £70m due for repayment in November, and you consider it an irrelevance. You may have shares at NIL cost , but do try to understand the mechanics of Marston's Financial position. Without the Carlsberg deal there could be real trouble. To disregard the PUBs as unimportant is ludicrous when the BOD have made it clear they intend to Focus on Operational Excellence within the Pub and Accommodation Business post Brewery separation.
Why any serious investor regards the current situation with laughter beggars belief.
My comments regarding investment strategy is Marstons related. I am sorry if you find any personal comments directed towards me not as amusing as I do, as I know I should not but I enjoy defending myself not that I need to.
Negative rates were referred to as a possibility by BOE today this will mean the cost of loans will be reduced and even loans in place can be refinanced. Marstons are very experienced in this already. However the BOE is also trying to increase growth and inflation which will be difficult where so many are now unemployed. The Govt is also trying to help businesses and I see this as a tremendous opportunity not only for Marstons as well as other businesses taken a hit in the pandemic but an investors opportunity where shares such as this are way below the value to me. I look forward also with some hope for some very uplifting sales figures from Marstons as we know they were registered on the Govt. support pubs scheme and so this is one very good investment in my opinion whilst the climb towards the mid 50ps will hopefully gain momentum back towards GBP1 a share. Fingers crossed. Very happy to hold this share and to invest some more later too.
Genuinely delighted to hear how well you are doing for yourself.
Just hope that your stated trading/investment income is more accurate than your oft stated number of pubs you believe MARS own.
If not you will be paying more tax to HMRC than necessary.
Other than that, any chance we can keep this board to Marstons please ?
My money does very well invested in the stock market thanks which is why the prices will keep rising and rising when interest rates will be negative. I am afraid you need to refocus. I am doing very nicely thanks which is why I retired early as I do not have to work, all of this to me is just a bit of fun and not to be taken too seriously. I make more money investing my own funds than working for someone else, or paying bank to do so.
Nice little trickle up today on most of my shares and this is likely to continue for some time yet. Good luck those invested like me in some choice shares such as Marstons. My godfather looking down in us will be pleased with today's rise. Fairtrader what other shares does your ultimate wisdom suggest I invest in as you are so confident in your own decision making?
"I can see it coming, and who cares how many pubs............"
Supercharge cannot believe your mentor was a Company Secretary,
Carlsberg care very much about our pubs ven if you do'nt. Read the JV it will be an education.
As far as Amazon is concerned suggest you ask Traders who use their Portal. It may be another outlet but similar to Supermarkets margins are wafer thin.
If the BOE do introduce negative rates it will have little effect on Marstons Loans as the vast majority (£890m ) are fixed. Average rate being just over 5%, the remain are floating at rates LIBOR +. So no saving there as you infer.
The losers will be people like you who will be required to pay the Bank to have money on deposit.
Do read up and stop this fake news.
I can see it coming, and who cares how many pubs when the deal with Amazon is most likely going to to worth a whole lot more. Any worries from the moaners when the share price is rising will be lost according to BBC news if the BOE does bring in negative interest rates!! What we now all get paid for taking out loans - I think I will buy a pub myself!! Happy days!!
Daave, it is indeed really good to get your input, especially as you are "at the coalface" and not a saloon bar commentator, you see exactly what is/has been going on.
You caught me there with the New River Reit/Hawthorn deal, I never saw an rns on that but I did recall something, and looking it up I see that Hawthorn, who manage NRR's pub portfolio, bought 29 pubs in January 2020, which the news at the time did not have a price for the deal. I think Findlay mentioned the sale in his post results run through on debt reduction. Not a huge number of pubs but it all fits in with the picture we have been looking at.
As a matter of interest Hawthorn, after the Marstons & Bravo deal, hold over 700 pubs a size which surprised me.
For sure Marstons Pub Estate will be made up of differing tenures, leased,tenanted, manged houses and no doubt any number of hybrid agreements.
What is certain whatever other experts say we do not have 2000.
Daave it is good to get your input. Are you a manager or tenant?
How is the change of ownership working for you and customers? Better or worse than previous?
I just saw the mention of 2000 pubs, before the 137 deal last year, they sold a fair chunk before this (to Heineken I think) a year or two ago.. ‘2000 pubs’ sounds like the number from before that sale.. 1400 sounds right at the minute!
If I remember right, they sold some buildings at some point m on the basis that they would rent them back.. I’m not 100% if this was many pubs or just a select few.
I don’t think the 137 and the ones sold to new river/Hawthorne are in the 1400 I’m fairly sure it was closer to 1600 when I saw the company details when I signed contracts etc.
Either way, they own a substantial amount of pubs split across varied ‘sectors’ of the pub sector, various revenue streams,
The pubs they sold were nearly all sites where the venues had struggled to keep the businesses viable, either due to location, the availability of customers or the tenants abilities to maximise the business,
Problem sites that needed more attention to get them up to par than would ever be worth investing from their business model
Apparently, selling off these pubs increased the profitability of their entire estate by 2% Which doesn’t I totally seem much but when you take a step back it’s a pretty big deal.
Sorry if this is somewhere within the below - i looked and couldnt find it.
Does anybody know when the next update is due?
I did get the 1400 number from their website & they sort of break that up by saying they have 500 local pubs, 200 pubs with food, and "about 400 pubs in our tenanted estate"
So I guess that is about as close as we can get to precise numbers, they have Pitcher/Piano's , not many 18, and a few Revere hotel/pubs. The website is not updated massively regularly so it is not impossible that the 137 which went to Admiral for £44.9mill are still included in that 1400 figure, but whether or not they are we have to be about as right as we can be with the numbers off their site.
I run one of those pubs that was sold last year!
The number of pubs they own will be broken down into ‘leased and tenanted’ and ‘managed houses’ and possibly ‘partnership agreements’
There are more aspects to the pub estate than the general public are aware of,
I don’t know the breakdown off the top of my head but the information is out there:
Marstons sold 140(ish) pubs to Admiral Taverns last November and then sold a further amount of pubs to another company between December and January, these were A selection of the lower performing pubs and ones that only generated ‘wet’ income for the brand, - the money forum the sale was intended to be spent of paying off 200,000,000 of their (at the time) £1.8 billion debt.
All of this is public, and available on various press releases from between November and today
Chatting to UK distro’s today and had great feedback on the ‘Taste the difference’ IPA sales. Pleasantly surprised they branded to the supermarket name but still left the brewers name on main label. Brand reputation is going strong and this is a prime example of supermarket and brewer working together. Tried myself today and can tell which ones they are clearly. Great move MARS this will do well.
Afterall the only reason for the shorts was the closing down process due to the fears of the Pandemic but for a month or two now all / if not most of Marstons outlets have been open. In fact with signing up with Amazon and no doubt other online retailers the possibility is that their sales figs for the past three Months have been increasing on the Ist qtr. So sensibly the shorters who are not stupid have been reducing and no doubt having to buy back or repay their loan stock.
Hi All, regular viewer, new poster.
Interesting to see that both shorters (Citadel and GLG) reduced their short position on 24th), not that suprising for Citadel who have regularly changed position, but GLG have held since March and reduced by 0.19% of company. Hopefully there is a fight to buy back between them.
All property values are subjective and I will leave that to those far more qualified to value than me. I did not buy or inherit shares in the largest Premium Beer Brewer in the Uk to worry about that. I look forward more to the most recent sales figures which will have more of an effect on price and the recovery what with some more positive news such as regarding the suggested distribution Company formation that should make the market recovery rebound positively. We already know the Uks retails figs are back to pre-pandemic levels - and wait in anticipation.
I see Marstons now sell Beer in various forms of outlet it seems :- Pubs.Motels.Wine bars,supermarkets, online and recently Amazon. All bases covered -good on them, one of the great survivors I.M.H.O & a strong buy.buy.buy!!
Does this affect your dealings? In fact those that borrow become richer, those that do not don't where inflation is set to rise and reduced debts in real terms. What is the price of money at the moment? Do you feel at 0% interest or thereabouts this is a problem? I am not distracted the market price for Marstons fell due to the Pandemic and fallen sales, not before the lockdown based on debts owed? Infact I seemed to remember a statement coming out regarding funding was in place to cover Marston's for some considerable time in the future even if the Pandemic lock down continued -which it hasn't.
Supercharge, we have a floating and, it seems, an in determinate number of Pubs, it appears your 2000 count is a spurious figure. We cannot count every corner shop that sells Estrella as you consider it is brewed by Marstons!!!
Against this accountancy nightmare, do you know the level of debt and the various repayment dates. Including temporary facilities?
. Is it likely current sales will provide margin to cover the imminent short term borrowings?
What we need Bar child is a up to date sales figures. i.e. how many Sales have been made after re-opening, we all know the sales were affected after lock down (which is reflected in the current share price fall from over £1. Once we can see the full on sales figs this can be broken down into an analysis of current performance. You cannot guess in this one I am afraid but I am hopefully once released we will have a steep rise in share price whether sales are to their own pubs or to supermarkets. To be honest I have been topping up and am very happy already with my investment and will not be selling in the short term i.e. for the next year or so but look forward to seeing us back over 80 to 100p a share in the shorter term -hopefully!!