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Think we're expecting a knee jerk reaction first thing but looking at the markets is not going to be just the UK, it's going to be the whole of EU. We loaded up more over the weekend ready for the top up at some point this week. With the US comical elections and Lockdown fallout this week will be turbulent.
I was reading the Lancet over the weekend and I was very surprised to see the amount of Phase 3 completions already and in the final stages of analysis. With an early date projected for January once passed the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency and European Medicines Agency and for vaccine delivery as early as the end of 2020. It shows how the UK is advancing on the vaccine front and that Oxford and AstraZeneca are surging ahead with remediation.
We've loaded up and ready for another big swoop on low hanging fruit.
FTSE futures are only slightly down by around 0.45% so it doesn't currently look like stocks will fall by much today, possibly just a slight fall here and there. Lockdown isn't until Thursday so if we do see a bit of a sell off in some of the sectors affected it won't necessarily be until midweek that we might see signs of that.
https://ftsefutures.org/
Not just the hospitality sector but also travel, airlines, airport owners, transport companies.
However some may go up? i.e. Takeaways, Home diy and hobby comps. I understand sterling is falling already but bloomberg report the EU Fisheries gap is being brideed to try and conclude a deal which might help GBP, and what with the USA Elections coming next week it should be interesting, I have a feeling my precious metals miners might do well? But everything uncertain at the moment.
“20-year supply agreement to have beers provided for its pubs and restaurants” Our current MC is supported by our 40% of the JV value alone. The whole pub division + £273m is then thrown in for free as it stands. Will be an interesting few months indeed.
All I can say is ... tomorrow morning is going to be very interesting for sure!! I also believe it’s going to be interesting to see how all the share prices are going to look! Some big chances to add in the morning I believe but with caution!!
Something is very odd here? i.e. Marstons to have 40% - but are putting in 61% of the labour force? Are the other Marstons old breweries to close? i.e. The article mentions the new brewing company which will take in Banks's and the other Marston's breweries around the UK including Marston's Brewery in Burton upon Trent, Jennings, Ringwood and Wychwood? If there is a transition and the breweries are closing that seems to create a hole that needs to be filled at the time they need distribution out for the "off sales?" Perhaps as the landscape has changed they will have to reconsider delaying the inhouse merger process until after lockdown?
By John CorserWolverhamptonBusinessPublished: Oct 30, 2020Last Updated: Oct 30, 2020
The £780 million deal to create a new giant brewing business with its headquarters in Wolverhampton has been completed.
Marston's has announced the completion of the joint venture arrangements with Carlsberg UK. The deal was first revealed in May.
The new Carlsberg Marston's Brewing Company will be headed by Marston's Beer Company managing director Richard Westwood as chief operating officer. The 1,600 beer company staff are now to be combined with 1,000 employed by Carlsberg, which is known for its lager.
Marston's will have a 40 per cent shareholding in the joint venture and a 20-year supply agreement to have beers provided for its pubs and restaurants which will operate separately from the brewing business.
Marston's House in Chapel Ash will be the headquarters for the new brewing company which will take in Banks's and the other Marston's breweries around the UK including Marston's Brewery in Burton upon Trent, Jennings, Ringwood and Wychwood.
35p monday? No, but over the course of the next few months, 25p.
The real losers in all this are small independently run pubs, they’ll go out of business leaving the large corps to get their business.
I am hoping a panicked market offers us 35p or less to add. It won't last long so grab it if you see it.
50-55p for a start. Our resident trash talkers seem to forget the JV was announced mid lockdown. JV is now confirmed with a shorter Lockdown time frame ahead.
I see Mr Grove was talking about the R number this morning I do not not think he means his Yamaha no. 46 when he says the lockdown might have to be extended. I have a feeling the only way out of this is a vaccine that is found to be reliable. So it is not going to be fixed over night. We might even need a jab every year like the flu as even those who have antibodies do not have them for long. I can see a nice quiet Christmas coming on in the stable with the Shire Horse. Take care one and all. Time to keep a sense of humour when all else fails.
It woudn't be 60p by Christmas if we didn't have a lockdown.
60p by Christmas
GS
''Carlsberg, a £125 billion global giant''
?
As far as I can see Carlsberg is valued at about £15 Billion
The problem was not the March lows, but what happened after that. We had a silly rally on both sides of the Atlantic based on the asumption Covid would be gone by the summer in large part.
That did not happen and it is ironic that it will not be gone "in large part" by this summer either. To that end expect this to drift lower, but perhaps not fall lower. I can see this at 40p next week.
Good honest post mate, collectors items on this BB.
Well worth a punt sub 30 but if you are tempted spread your investment over 4 or 5 other stocks. Cannot believe how many investors put their full pot into one company on the advice of a handful of posters on random chat rooms. Do what you think is correct and always hold some funds in reserve for RI’s and massive dips. Never thought March lows would appear again with worse to come if a botched US election transpires.
Hi Chaps yes I agree Pars & adysm likely to fall fast and then come back later during the month lockdown but a great opportunity here perhaps for later after the falls?
Also agree with you 2reincarnated -this could end up very Rocky, well Rocky 1/11/111 they way the virus keeps coming back.
Moley you are right I have been buying the sensible ones until a vaccine comes along but have in mind Stobart, IAG (British Airways) and the best Jet engine servicing and most reliable engine manufacturers in the World - RR. All bargains already and likely to make a lot of dosh later. GLA.
I wonder if the BOD knew about the Govt proposals before the JV was signed as they have already signed away 60% of the brewing (the main lockdown money earner and now can only rely on 40% to sell later?) The JV will not be able to function for sometime yet with any additions from Carlsberg? I mean the Shire Horses most likely cannot even speak Danish, erh ons dos tres? Thinking about it I do not think the market sentiment is going to like this at all. I still feel we will be in the 30ps my reentry point this time GLA.
Will take some more at 30p. It's an odd one though. I think we all knew it was coming so SP would of declined more last week. MM's may enjoy some shock tactics taking it down super hard, but then it may recover through the morning.
I shall be waiting for the 08:30 trough to see what's on offer.
How we're all gonna kick ourselves in a few years for not mopping up more of these covid victims at the darkest hour. MARS, Easyjet, Greggs, even Carnival Cruises.
Marston's no longer has the same financial vulnerability the company had back in march and during the last lockdown. It's a whole different kettle of fish now that the company has joined forces with Carlsberg, a £125 billion global giant. Risk has been greatly reduced. Carlsberg wasn't put off by the prospect of further lockdowns - they would definitely have weighed up all eventualities, including the possibility of further lockdowns, and for the deal to go ahead, they're clearly not concerned about the pandemic. The plan will be to sell more Carlsberg products in Marston's pubs so Carlsberg have a strong interest in ensuring Marston's pubs survive and thrive going forward. Having a cash rich partner with a global reach puts Marston's in a much stronger position than they ever were before. The lockdown is only scheduled to last 4 weeks - December 2nd it's due to be lifted. Meanwhile businesses can once again rid themselves of wage costs as furlough has been extended into December and the 20% top up is voluntary. In short, I don't think being closed for 4 weeks with no wage costs is that much worse than being open with reduced footfall due to restrictions and having wages to pay. Taking all this into account, any downward movement, in my opinion, is likely to be very temporary and largely sentiment driven. Considering the JV with Carlsberg, I think it's highly unlikely we'll see anywhere near the march lows again. And don't forget the supermarkets will continue to sell the company's beers throughout the 4 week lockdown, as well as online sales. Very few professional investors would be so shortsighted as to base investment decisions on a 4 week lockdown! The JV is a huge deal and as investors we really need to keep focus on that. And in the meantime, try to look a bit further ahead than the ends of our noses!
Think that is the key question. What happens if the lockdown gets things back under control before Christmas, but Christmas and all the parties ets get us back whete we are now?
That would mean another lockdown in January and then maybe another just before mass vaccinations start. Hello 25p!!!
Supercharger- I like to think the lockdown was already priced in and anyone like myself still invested in Mars knew the very likely chance of this happening, I am here because I see big upside with the JV and would think they are likely to be one of the “safest” hospitality stock. As for the price I think low 40’s for the panic sells then hopefully a steady rise after that if a good enough support package is agreed Wednesday. Fingers crossed for everyone invested
PitterP - I am afraid Isa's do not really work for me as they are limited on an annual allowance and are less flexible than I would like. I enjoy moving money around for far better returns than what Fund Managers or Personal Isa's can provide for me as once a withdrawal is made the money cannot be replaced.
I suppose when I become a little bit less active and move towards having a quieter life it might be an idea if they are still around. It would have to be a stocks/shares Isa as you say as there is no interest on cash about and I would dare to suggest we might have negative interest rates in the Uk the way things are going soon. Perhaps one suggestion in the middle of the Boris Lockdown 11 (sounds like the Rocky movies) is a small comps tracker on the whole index?
The problem with jumping shares is it that it only takes one wrong move to wipe out all your profits and then some, but if it works for you then that’s great. I only hold 40,000 shares here but will defiantly consider bumping that up to 100,000 if there is indeed a dip moving forward. Don’t really see it myself but I guess the new measures could make for another opening, am relatively positioned in either event. As for the capital gains factor, a stocks and shares ISA built up over the years is probably the best answer.