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falk
''the collapse of the housing market.''
Some people think that a collapse is a small yearly drop, two years in succession.
Others would say a 20% drop in the current valuations is a collapse .
Property prices have been over heated for a number of years and is in need of a 'collapse'.
Lloyds bank are is a very good position with low LTV percentages, ro weather the inevitable house price corrections when they come.
LTI
Yes, you are right. I used the word "negates" which as you pointed out does mean completely wipe out any benefit to the bank. Definitely the wrong word to use as I have no idea the effect of the upcoming crash will have on Lloyds. In respect of the specific point that was raised, I certainly expect the "all is fine and dandy" profit to be substantially reduced by the first part of the Brexit / pandemic aftermath. Will the adverse trading conditions "negate" the additional benefit to the bank then probably not, nor do I expect the trading conditions to put Lloyds into a loss making position because so many of the bad debts will be underwritten by the Government.
RW
''In calmer waters, you would be right.''
You made a direct correlation between an increase in net interest margin and the benefit to banks, with this benefit being completely nullified by an increase in bad debts.
''Calmer waters'' doesn't come into that equation.
Ok, so Covid isn't really a risk to anyone's health and the vaccine is an attempt by science to kill us all.
Now you have let us know, please don't post again on this subject.
Looks like falky is temporarily in rolls Royce
Take care stay safe
This too will end
Morning Falky,
"Hoping to get back at 44p" LOL
Good luck with that, you got no chance, 50 before 44!
IMHO of course
Let’s blow your plan out of the water in the next 10 mins fawkes
LTI
In calmer waters, you would be right. However, we we are at the beginning of a financial and social maelstrom. We are not in a boom time, things are not all roses in the garden.
"We are told the Financial reset is to occur in 2025" Who knows when, what I do know is the Chinese Government had their largest-ever meeting several months ago which lasted weeks.
Western media are a disgrace as China prepares to match the USA with GDP 2028 or earlier. China also estimates that its GDP will be double the USA by 2035.
China has in the public domain said that "Health Care" will be larger than Germany's estimated GDP by 2050.
One serious Super Power is emerging who already flexes muscle in the South China Sea with Luzon, the largest island in the North Philipines being contested and Taiwan?
Always sensible to take some Lloyds profits or time the exit route.
In my opinion only, China's buying gold for a reason.
LSE. this post is relevant to Lloyds investors.
ATB
RW
Not a very sensible thing to say- to suggest any increase in net interest margin is nullified because of some bad debts that is always a part of the banking business.
By that logic then, the base rate may as well stay at 0.1 .% forever for banks.
"any interest rise is a positive on banks income"
Until the cost of loan defaulters negates it.
Sorry into Banking stocks ....
Value trades and inflation proof Banks , as any interest rise is a positive on banks income
Lloyd's Banking Group shares still sitting 50% lower from its 2019 high.....
Last week we have started to see the rotation out of technology stocks in Banking stocks wids
Quite a few well known investors expecting a big reversal. The US stock market valued at 49 and some trillion dollars, bigger than the GDP of the US China Japan & Germany combined.
One hell of a bubble.
Falklandinvestor good afternoon
I'm just outside chesham the property's are selling very quick a estate agent friend tells me its Londoners moving out the capital pushing prices up plus they made some changes to the bakerloo line one train goes straight into london. I see the government are making plans for 300,000 Chinese to migrate to the UK this will push the prices up
We are told the Financial reset is to occur in 2025 , no explanation given for that specific timeframe . From what I've read China GDP should equal US on that year .
We all know Chinese are buying all the physical Gold they can get hold of . It wouldn't surprise me if they then peg their currency to Gold . They already have a consumer market of ~20% of the Global population . Western nations will be forced to raise their base rates with corresponding effects . Biden' splurge is not helping the Dollar now , never mind 4 yrs down the line
Livestock
Whichever way you look at it, it's a bubble. All bubbles burst. The only positive change in the housing market is the very long fixed rate mortgages that are here. That may save a few when inflation hits and interest rates rise. Punters will still be trapped in negative equity but at least they will have a roof over their heads.
As house price frenzy breaks all the rules, can the rises go on - or is the market about to overheat?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9581823/amp/As-house-price-frenzy-breaks-rules-market-overheat.html
It’s not just one Fund Manages’ preferred option, or even two. Lloyds is mentioned by THREE different Funds, as a stock set to rise strongly as the UK economy roars.....a really encouraging read for all holders here! You can see it specifically in the section about “The Sectors Poised to Benefit in the Recovery” (c. 70% into the whole article). It really is a VERY encouraging article and very different in terms of referring to the Banks being the ‘solution’ providers throughout this Covid crises and NOT the ‘causes’ (i.e. unlike the Financial Crises). At last the UK banks are being hailed as hero’s and not the villains; that alone is a MASSIVE step forward and bodes well for the next two years+. . . . ATB
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-9581845/Beat-rush-invest-Bounceback-Britain.html