George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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those CFD spread bet firms can be a scourge...……. I have witnessed first hand 100% say if you go long a stock they will hedge by going long also to cover a traders position they are nothing more than scavengers.
I
agree esp with gold at 1800.
Everyday is a day closer to news.
I believe shortly low 1s and 20milmcap will look very small and we will re rate to a more reasonable trading range.
oops - "volume is back to what it was"
it doesn't seem to explain the huge number of disappearing trades - generally large trades go through (a million or so) then, by the time the next trade goes through - the Sp is back to what it was?
i am only guessing but i watched this short clip on Spreadex and it does imply they often take the counterparty risk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNXwhRCBR8U
and if they do they have a very big reason to manipulate the price and in particular the spread and those small trades we see i think are Spreadex buying and selling to itself and moving the spread and price around to their benefit, while at the same time generating a little income on the spread for those that actually need to sell while some muppet CFD investor on the hook for a big amount of money is being rinsed :) Anyway never seen a share act the way Kefi has over the last few months and if you compare to normal Level2 information it is very different. if you want to get a leveraged position against Kefi you know where to go.
simm that was a very interesting insightful post your thoughts on how spreadex works and it’s effects on KEFI sp movements is very welcome cheers for Taking the time to post that - I’m a ltr here still underwater but hopefully not for much longer
I give up re Spreadex ! :D
Thanks for that - I assumed it was traders with the little buys and sells but Spreadex look def like the culprits. I will be glad to see the back of them though whatever effect they have!
But basically we can presume that spreadex may be people owning it long, and they prob have to close if it goes down. otherwise they keep rolling over. Spreadex only own because others do and if others keep owning so do they. Their holdings could as easily rise 1% as fall 1%.
As to Spreadex i have raised more than once but essentially its a CFD platform but allows you to short or go long on Kefi. i was quite surprised given Kefi minerals was so small and illiquid to even consider you could create a CFD market.
https://www.spreadex.com/financials/shares/kefi-minerals-kefi.l/NLIQ-QbHVW
Therefore individuals do not own shares on this platform and allows outright leverage. However to make that work someone has to be the counterparty. i am not sure exactly but spreadex clearly took a big stake in Kefi in the past that presumably was due to trading activity on its platform. This might have been two traders betting against one another or potentially Spreadex became the counterparty. What we have seen over last month is Spreadex reducing its holding though a series of RNS and price has started to tick up. I have been monitoring Level 2 for 3 months and the ASK was almost always around 1p or less where i could see millions and millions of shares but the spread was insane, perhaps 15% so once you bought in you would hope you did not need to sell for a while as it was so wide. just 2 months ago you could buy 40m shares below 1p and the stock price would not even blink. once the shares were gone at 1p Spreadex would park millions more at 1p or less. forced sellers had to make do with the crazy 15% spread. This went on for an extended time so maybe Spreadex partly covers their hedge by trading the spread and pocketing 15% everytime someone sells as that is a big spread. Spreadex was selling down its position and was happy to offload huge volumes of shares. Today that is not quite the case although there is definitely continued manipulation. I think all of the small share trades we are seeing are Spreadex related as they seem to be ahead of the MMs on BID and ASK (although they are not clearly labelled like MMs). Therefore at the moment all the small trades we see are actually spreadex buying and selling to itself as only they can do that with no costs and they can walk the share price up and down a little within the 15% spread as we see daily. i have seen so many loss making trades but if you are buying and selling to yourself there is no loss. Yesterday 1.3 ASK and few hours later 1m shares offered at 1.15 to bring ASK down. The normal MMs are not in the picture. Spreadex with huge numbers of shares are able to block the share price from moving up whenever they want but i am more than happy to take it off their hands as i think while Kefi was a great short 3-9 months ago i think they will be one of the biggest risers over the next 12 months and i am expecting at least 5X in that time frame. if anyone is shorting Kefi now they are in for a big surprise but Spreadex still have over 4% so that is still a massive amount of shares.
feels like news pending or tick up again could be wrong but certainly sense more buy side interest/sentiment
How do you know?
no its NOT!
Spreadex has been used here for a purpose, so no point in sweeping that under the carpet.
Spreadex is very important.
enough on spreadex already :) it's just a cfd platform like ig. I could own Kefi via it , it's not a bunch of shorters, just short-term traders, presumably.
Have Spreadex sold down again or are they finally out?
Perhaps there is another RNS due?
I believe we are on the cusp of transformational news from both Ethiopia & Saudi. Will be nice to see us trading at 3p+....
That's just TK.
Plus
Harry's recent interview mention they would end up with more like 45-60 percent, by settling with an offtake agreement for the 80mil for the first 3-4 of production.
Saudi about to double the NPV.
That's why I think 1-5 to 2p before Saudi makes sense, and why when the deal is concluded 100milmcap would seem cheap
Tulu Kapi Project Economics
From a gold price-risk viewpoint, the development and finance plans withstand a flat gold price for the next ten years of c. US$1,100/oz - which approximates the lowest gold price experienced in over ten years. The average gold price for the past ten years was US$1,365/oz.
At the current gold price of circa US$1,700/oz, KEFI estimates:
· net cash flow of the open pit mine to be US$481 million; and
· the Definitive Feasibility Study ("DFS") based NPV of the open pit (US$300 million) added to that of the PEA-based NPV of the underground mine (US$110 million), totals to the aggregate Project NPV at 8% of US$411 million. NPV's are on after-tax cash net cash flows as at today.
On this basis and after taking into account that KEFI has already invested nearly all of its contribution to the Project equity, KEFI's 45% beneficial interest in Tulu Kapi only is US$185 million (approximately £153 million), about nine times the current market capitalisation of the Company.
1.5 - 2.0 makes fundermental sense at this point. Not in my opinion, just maths and that's also factoring in the stone cold sentiment that's changing