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Based on 15-Jun RNS, that’s 8 working days before everything was “on-track” and was confident of signing the umbrella agreement. Either something had gone wrong (significantly since then) which I don’t believe is the case or the 15-Jun RNS was incorrect.
As I said, if this umbrella agreement not signed satisfying MoM needs then HAA doesn’t deserve to continue. I believe HAA will get this done. Let’s see GL
Thanks Urai5.
Here is the reply email I received at 10:17 CEST (copy/paste):
Hi urai
We note your concerns and appreciate your feedback.
Your questions and others recently received are being collated and will be answered during our AGM webcast (details to be provided closer to 30 June).
Kind regards,
Roger
---------------------------------------------
My assessment:
It was clear that no details could be communicated NOW. Every word would probably be wrong resp. stock price relevant and therefore very critical. The AGM is on Thursday, June 30th, 2022. I assume that statements will be made there - positive or negative. Because the ominous July 7, 2022 is only a week later. The moment of truth for Kefi Gold and Copper and HAA has definitely come. I am convinced that there would be no more chance for HAA in Ethiopia - Tulu Kapi is "virtually surrounded" by the Chinese. But don't forget: Saudi assets in the Arabia-Nubian Shield with Hawiah and Jibal Qutman are worth more than the current (low) market capitalization.
urai5
@urai5, I can see you are genuinely trying to make sense of all this but there's much you are missing out simply because the real information is not publicly available and a few continue to suppress anything leaking out even on this platform. Unfortunate.
Chasf - Kefi and HAA had more than 6 months to clear this mess. This is the last saga. If you look back, HAA had been working on this for the last 5 years - anyone decent would have sorted this out along time ago. HAA started taking this seriously when MoM threatened to seize the licence.
Yes we had various issues along the way, but HAA had more than enough time.
Let’s hope for the best.
GL
"Why has it taken 6 months after state of emergency lifted in Q4 2021?" I imagine it's a little disturbing to have consortium members of staff kidnapped
@urai5, I can see you are genuinely trying to make sense of all this but there's much you are missing out simply because the real information is not publicly available and a few continue to suppress anything leaking out even on this platform. Unfortunate.
If HAA gets it sorted by 30-jun-22 and no major drama.. all well and good. But if he fails to get the umbrella agreement signed by 30-jun-22, he must go. There is no 2 ways about it. GL
HAA and KEFI were suppose to close to clearing this hurdle in Sep-21; just before the security incident. Why has it taken 6 months after state of emergency lifted in Q4 2021? No one can complain that KEFI and HAA didn't have enough time. IMO all responsibility both good and bad is of HAA and KEFI BOD.
Poor show, leaving everything to last min..
Lets see where we end by end of next week.. interesting few sessions coming up!
GL
"1. Who exactly are the Mining Financiers ($60m) and Ethiopian Subsidiaries of International Groups ($35m) and Ethiopian Private Investor ($9m)."
All i am looking at 2.4p PS, after the umbrella agreement, i don't care $80m or the above.
Yes @chasf, I thought about that too. The core value of a developer is the mine plan. But Tulu Kapi is open pit with very simple metallurgy. And don't forget: According to my information, the processing plant will be built in China.
In my opinion, it really is the very last chance for HAA and Kefi to bring Tulu Kapi into production. The Umbrella Agreement must be signed by all members of the consortium by the end of June. Then we should also (finally) know the following:
1. Who exactly are the Mining Financiers ($60m) and Ethiopian Subsidiaries of International Groups ($35m) and Ethiopian Private Investor ($9m).
2. And what are the exact contract clauses for financing Tulu Kapi. And there could effectively be the 80m$ paid into an account of the Ethiopian central bank.
"... he Chinese who have nothing done or organised in the relevant area" I'd be surprised if, for instance, said Chinese would have any rights to see let alone use the detailed survey results and mine planning documents produced so far.
If several hundred serious companies had effectively had assets seized that they'd invested in, surely there would be more noise and legal action.
As I understand it, many of the cancelled licences are for companies that have done nothing or next to nothing with them, not even limited exploration.
"I have my greatest doubts that the Ethiopian government will give HAA and Kefi another chance. Because the Chinese are at the door. "
I'm sure that going back to square zero by switching to the Chinese who have nothing done or organised in the relevant area is sure to get the EG what it wants more quickly. EG might, however, have noted recent articles about several needy countries suddenly discovering they've perhaps ended up in a Chinese debt-trap, and pondering whether that's really a good idea here.
I understand the current frustration of disappointed shareholders very well; I belong too. But the fallback layer with assets in KSA Hawiah and Jibal Qutman has been the main reason I remain invested.
Now again to the financing and the corresponding evidence. The last month's update says the following:
"- Sign the funding ‘Umbrella Agreement’ during June 2022 to demonstrate the full funding commitment, in particular to the Ministry
- Evidence of the full funding capacity of each syndicate member to the Ministry"
And so it is understandable and plausible for me that the risk capital (subordinated debt and equity) has to be deposited at the Ethiopian central bank. Because the Mines Ministry defines the rules of the game. A "promise to pay" is probably sufficient for the African banks with the $140m loan.
Not only do we shareholders have no more patience - the Ministry of Mines also wants to see facts now - specifically capital.
PS Please excuse me, as not every term is likely to be translated correctly. I write in German and have the text translated by the online translator.
The Annual General Meeting of KEFI Gold and Copper plc to be held on 30 June 2022, at 10.00 a.m. (BST).
https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/announcements/kefi-agm-notice-of-meeting-and-proxy-form-6june22.pdf
My proposition, we are close to the agreement. Correct me if i am wrong, we have a AGM on 28thJun'22, let it all wash then.
Urai is a long term holder posts mainly on the German wallstreet online kefi board. Ethiopia has gotten several Grants more recently than that. The list on revoked licensee is probably irrelevant really as well out of date.
https://www.garoweonline.com/en/world/africa/world-bank-to-provide-war-torn-ethiopia-with-715-million
The $80m deposit is the latest, NO Where was mentioned till MVA9999 raised this and where is he ?
Guys start with the profiles of urai5.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/urai5/?page=2
https://www.fanabc.com/english/ethiopia-world-bank-sign-80m-grants-agreement/
http://www.mom.gov.et/index.php/revoked-licenses-2/
Urai5 Guess I and everyone else is just exhausted by how long this has gone on. Mood not helped by the derisory share price which does not even reflect a fraction of the Saudi prospects.
Members of the consortium might want more guarantees of security but makes sense for the Ethiopians to play ball as need western investment as well as Chinese into their country and they will improve security anyway in the region otherwise it would be very politically damaging to their government.
This BB is now officially a comedy show devoid of humour.
Embarrassed for you.. I’m out.
I understand your point of view very well @Robjm66. Regarding the credibility of the Twitter thread and the difficult-to-hear statement in Amharic: It's a question of comprehensibility.
For me it is (very) understandable, according to which TKGM must have deposited 80m$ with the Ethiopian National Bank by July 7th, 2022. That is also very possible - as I judge the financing construct.
I assume the Umbrella Agreement is a legal obligation to fund Tulu Kapi. The two African banks are likely to be the most cautious with $140m for the processing plant. It is therefore logical for me that the "risk capital" (subordinated debt 75m$ plus equity Kefi 5m$) must first be paid into the Ethiopian central bank. When the money comes in, the government also has assurance that the mine will be built effectively. The whole thing follows the logic step by step.
Regarding the performance of IR: I rate the performance of Kefi as good. The problem now is that any official statement in an RNS can instantly affect the stock price. Q&A is more harmless. We are now talking about almost 2 weeks: And then it should be clear. I have my greatest doubts that the Ethiopian government will give HAA and Kefi another chance. Because the Chinese are at the door. All the uncertainty is reflected in the share price. Because I am convinced that the assets in Saudi Arabia Hawiah and Jibal Qutman alone are worth much more than the current market capitalization.
Regarding the security situation: I am convinced that the Ethiopian government can guarantee security. The question simply arises as to whether ALL members of the consortium see it that way.
PS: I remain invested - if only because of KSA.
PPS: I sent an email to Kefi.
Seriously a twitter feed of a press conference in Amharic that’s inaudilbe and a screen capture of an article that might well be totally unreliable probably from a source that has been misleading in the past in previous articles that also said kefi was going to lose their licence then it did not happen.
Agree the company has to do more than answer a Q and A and reply to a tipsters email and actually lay out what the state of play is and the company often sucks in informing shareholders of what is going on but give me break.
As for the security situation company can do nothing about that its in the government hands but after the attack the other day government likely to flood the whole area with troops short term, medium term beef up the troop levels medium term and longer term get into talks with the rebels. The incident was so shocking and got so much publicity locally and at a national and international level government will not be able politically drag its feet so will massively improve security in the area.