Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thanks @tomcat. The long term plan is to rebuild the port so a handymax can dock to take the ore to the capesize. I wonder if in the mean time the ore is being transported via barges to the handymax which then travels to the capesize ship, or whether the barges are going directly to the capesize? Probably the latter if feasible as this involves less loading and unloading.
Obtimistically speaking:
2019-07-18
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-07-18&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Two fully loaded (blue) barges waiting at the port for the ship to arrive or agreements to be finalised before setting off
2019-07-28
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-07-28&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
The fully loaded barge at the port is tug-boated to the ship. The other is still to the left of the port
2019-08-02
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-08-02&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Same situation. Might imply at least 4 day round trip (including unloading)?
2019-08-07
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-08-07&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Barge on the left is being tugged to the ship. Barge at the port is being loaded.
2019-08-12 to 2019-09-16
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-08-12&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-09-16&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Loaded barge at the port
2019-09-21
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-09-21&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Empty barge at the port
2019-09-26
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-09-26&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Loaded barge at the port
2019-10-01 to 2019-10-31
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-10-01&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-10-31&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Empty barge at the port
2019-11-05
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-11-05&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Loaded barge at the port
2019-11-15
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-11-15&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Empty barge at the port
2019-11-30
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-11-30&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Nothing at the port
2019-12-05
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-12-05&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Loaded barge at the port
If there are two barges in operation (seems likely), how do we explain the image with nothing at the port?
Ob
wow indeed...
handymax... http://maritime-connector.com/wiki/handymax/ ...
capesize... http://maritime-connector.com/wiki/capesize/ ...
Perhaps now it makes sense why we haven't been told "shipment of the stockpiles by the end of December 2019." has begun - because it hasn't! Could be any day we get the announcement that the ship is full and ready to sail. Ideally along with the announcement of us owning 20% of the company. Now that would be a nice Christmas present :-)
Looking back through the images I shared I'm beginning to be persuaded that the evidence is sufficiently compelling that the operation has likely been progressing for several months in anticipation of meeting this deadline: "shipment of the stockpiles by the end of December 2019.". i.e. when the ship sets sail, not when the barges begin. Capesize ships are of the order of 150-400kt which means it would take several months to load @8.75kt every 4 days. @200kt would take 3 months.
Wow :-)
While the price is high and all that.....get shipping it, I'd say
Obs' you should know me by now, I always look on the bright side ;)
LoL @Barksy. I knew it was good to share research - multiple barges hadn't crossed my mind! :-)
Thanks Obs, those pics are quite clear, the blue stockpiles, then another smaller blue pile waiting on the road/rail whatever it is, leading to the barge and then the barge is blue, full of ore.
One of the last pics showed a white barge to the left, probably waiting to moor up and load. The ship must be massive and waiting somewhere in deeper waters while being loaded.
The journey has started then, come on Kiran please give us a wacking big Christmas announcement to move us north.
I also meant to include evidence that the iron ore, when weathered is bluish. Take a look at figure 16 here:
"Gold, iron and manganese in central Amapá, Brazil" (Oct./Dec. 2017)
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2317-48892017000400703
The text just above that figure starting in section "IRON ORE DEPOSITS, THE MINE OF JINDAL" refers to Amapa and is an interesting read.
The point being, as the stockpiles are removed they may lose their blueish tint as viewed from above. More circumstantial evidence to look out for whilst we wait for official confirmation! Come on @Kiran. I'm wondering if we are close to signing off stage 1 and they want to announce these things together. I'd probably play it that way.
Ob.
I didn't answer the question! LoL. If it's expected to take 18-24 months to shift the stockpiles, and perhaps it started in the last week or two we might be looking at 0.25-0.5/18-24 = 1-3% shifted so far. For me it's not the quantity shifted, it's possible circumstantial evidence they may have started. Heavily caveated! :-)
We know from the August 30th announcement that "Over the next four months our key targets will [be] the start of detailed recommissioning studies and the start [of] shipment of the stockpiles by the end of December 2019."
As pointed out during the week there is circumstantial evidence that this may have started, or is at least preparing to start.
@Ivybush asked: "Any guestimate of percentage so far?"
From the August 30th RNS we know:
"An independent survey of these stockpiles indicates some 1.39 Mt (+/- 10%) of iron ore in three stockpiles with an average Fe grade of 62.12% (+/ 10%), which based a US$80 per tonne of 62% Fe would net Amapá a forecast US$60 million net of costs."
and:
"As mentioned above before the start of mining, the Amapá Project will also ship the iron ore stockpiles held at the dock by the end of December 2019 and continue for between 18 and 24 months."
An estimate of the capacity of the barge at the private port from various images. e.g.
https://www.bing.com/maps?osid=e57ba001-09f1-49f4-bd10-29430f0efd1e&cp=-0.052341~-51.18183&lvl=19&style=h&v=2&sV=2&form=S00027
might suggest it is around 35m by 10m. As for depth, perhaps 5 metres? This gives a volume of 1750 cubic metres. Density of iron ore is around 5t/m3, which implies the barge's capacity might be around 8.75kt, so somewhere in the region 5-10kt.
Shifting 1.39Mt @8.75kt would require 160 trips. @5-10kt would be 139-278 trips. Spread over 18-24 months (555-730 days). 21 months is 640 days.
The central cases of 160 trips over 640 days suggests cycle of 4 days. Perhaps something like: a day to load, a day to travel, a day to unload, a day to travel back. To where I don't know. If somewhere near by it might be 2 days to load, 2 days to unload, with negligible travel time.
For the 1 day load/unload scenario if the image dates and times we have access to were truly random (they are not) we might be expected to see the barge at the port in 1 in every 4 images in various stages of being loaded, from empty to full. For the 2 days to load/unload scenario with negligible travel time we might see the barge at the port in every other image.
Complete back of the envelope calculations. Doesn't take into account shifts, holidays, breaks etc. Just averages.
Got a new computer yet @Frankie? You'll be missing out on all the fun otherwise! I'm already looking forward to the next image - will it be clear or cloudy? Will the barge be there or not? Place your bets! LoL
Last two images:
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05032&lng=-51.18505&zoom=16&time=2019-11-30&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05032&lng=-51.18505&zoom=16&time=2019-12-05&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Ob.