George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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If the virus gets into Syria and infects the refugees and refugee camps in turkey, which there are I believe 3 million all living in unhygienic and cramped conditions, no medical care and impossible to isolate the infected with a 2% death rate, turkey and the EU will have a massive problem. As mentioned by someone on this or another board, there will be no stopping the spread of the virus and there is no point for quarantine. Sorry for the glum possibility.
Middle East must have a big problem, all the facial and hand shaking greeting. What’s happening in Russia and Africa?
Copper has a bottom price unlike some consumer goods that can be discounted to below cost to reduce stock levels. Regarding consumer goods I know that if any of my household appliances, phones, t.v. Etc. we’re in need of replacement, they would be replaced and I think most households would be the same irrespective of the Coronavirus, therefore replacement demand will always be there. Given that a vaccine is reportedly 15 months out and the virus could ease over the summer things shouldn’t be to long in getting back to normal. As stated QE would be required in any country that is severely affected. Any slow down in demand for goods just now surely bodes we’ll for increased demand once things get back to normal.
The thing is hafeez1 copper ,hasn't fallen yet in line with markets ,the ''big if ''is what price commodity related companies will drop to.
If Italy go into recession with lombardy,there be a run on the Euro, as well a run with banks here,lucky we sold alot of Italian debt on ,but it will but france back in recession ,and Germany under pressure which carry Europe
It’s all doom and gloom. Rastuss when it comes to copper, I think copper may have priced in the efffects of the virus, and hence the fall from 2.88 to 2.58 ( my guess that is) and the rest of the market is merrily playing catch up. I reckon the ftse/ Dow may fall another 10/12 % which would still on the grand scheme of things be seen as a healthy pull back.
Iran is pretty much isolated, and many Iranian citizens travel very little in the Middle East as they are not welcome, however contagion and fear are extremely powerful drivers. How long before Central banks flood the the markets with Q.E. China has always maintained that any effects would be short lived, and things will pick up in Q2/ Q3.
Do you not think demand for Chinese made goods will take a hit? Italy's Lombardy region accounts for a third of GDP and if the region remains in lock down will send the country into recession, job losses and defaults to follow. Eurozone borders closing temporarily may not be enough to stop the contagion. Now imagine what the fear will be like when this kind of outbreak (300+ people) are multiplied across pockets of Europe. The fear will spread further and an economic slowdown across Europe is then much more likely. I don't think it's scaremongering to look at what has happened in China, Korea, the cruise ship off Japan etc and extrapolate the effects of this virus to determine what is likely to happen next.
My thought is when the Chinese get back to full manufacturing production, which I don’t think will be too long. The Chinese will not keep their factories closed for long, the virus is predominantly affecting the old and people with underlying health problems who I presume don’t work in manufacturing. The working population will still have bills to pay etc. therefore I think returning to work will not be a problem, the demand for raw materials will return. The goods for export will still be shipped. What I think will have a longer affect will be holiday, entertainment and sport occasions where large amounts of people congregate.
I think there is also a lot of subtle scaremongering going on which has made people a lot of money, and once it bounces up these same people will make it on the way up. The first most of us knew about Italy was late Friday, by then there was over 100 affected and two deaths.