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Oops, the question marks were a laughing emoji on my screen if anyone was wondering
Hi Dick
It's great to see your words of wisdom (and occasionally sarcasm ??) again, we all miss you when you're not about.
Glad you're still above ground and hope you get well soon
Yes, very good to see you back Dick especially as your words of wisdom, from time to time, clarify the position for weak holders.
I’m another, not insubstantial, long term holder here with great confidence for the future and look forward to reading the company update before the year end.
Good to see you back Dickham, your sensible and balanced chat has been missed
Thanks Dic. I’ve followed your posts for the last couple of years but haven’t commented much until recently. The narrative makes a lot of sense. Take care and get better.
...freudian slip:
"tears and decades"............I meant "years"
Tears is better
I'll make occasional posts if I feel up to it, it seems appropriate and the discussions warrant it. Everyone's thinking short term but the reality is that oil plays out in tears and decades. Patience is required, but even if one has it in spades something invariably seems to crop up to spoil things. JOG hasn't had much luck in this regard but despite the set-backs what it has achieved on such a small budget is truly remarkable. That the market doesn't attribute any value to 140mstb of discovered 33°API oil in one of the best locations on the UKCS, plus 230mstb of decent prospects in the same general area beggars belief. Even at $1pb for the discovered oil (with detailed plans attached on how to access it most economically) JOG commands a value of more than £5 a share.
There is further news to come before Christmas - the following has been copied and pasted from AB's recent interim update:
" In the lead up to the year end, we can look forward to further updates from our team in respect of:
- Finalisation of the development plan for the GBA
- A comprehensive update on the exciting near field exploration potential of the GBA demonstrating the upside potential to the development
project
- Progress on area collaboration with regional operators for both production volumes and power solutions
- A full ESG report integrated throughout our corporate and project plans
GLA
BFN
I haven't disappeared, mjga786. I was diagnosed with something nasty a short while ago and I've been concentrating on getting the best possible outcome. I'm not going to go into the detail but it's likely to be a long haul. It's certainly had the effect of putting things in perspective and concentrating on what's important, most particularly one's family.
JOG's situation and share price performance are frustrating for its shareholders but we're not alone. The whole sector has had a severe bashing and I doubt it's over yet. But the tide will turn, as it always does in the end The world can't function without oil. If there are only sellers in evidence the price is bound to fall - as it has done recently (and has done before). Not many shares are being traded so the tail is wagging the dog . I'd be surprised if any of the larger holders have sold (I certainly haven't) so the waverers (the "don't knows or don't understands") are the ones determining the SP. When it shifts on any volume it shifts quickly, as we have seen more than once before. You either believe there'll be strong interest leading to a farm-out on favourable terms; or you don't. If you don't, or you don't like the risks, sell and put your money into a building society or somewhere else that's safe.
L&G had a shuffle around within their various funds and their their JOG holding ended up in more than one fund. As I understand it they mucked up the disclosure process but it's now been corrected and shows L&G again holding 4.55% or whatever.
I've spoken with AB a couple of times of late. As ever he strictly observed the usual protocols in not telling me anything he wouldn't tell any other holder. He didn't , however, come across to me as someone who was losing sleep as a result of captaining a ship that's heading for the rocks. I wasn't any more pleased than others with the timing and amount of the recent pay increases, which were insensitive and inappropriate in the extreme. I've made my views known - fat lot of good it will do. That said, it won't matter if they manage to pull off a deal that will see JOG significantly funded through to first oil.
My personal view is that the GBA project is too big for a minnow like JOG, regardless of the expertise of the team and the impressive way they continue to focus solely on what they know has to be done before they take on a partner (via farm-in). I say: sign up a partner, make significant progress with the FDP then welcome bids for the company that give it a market cap that properly reflects its prospects. GBA's postcode is a hell of a lot better than HUR's Lancaster field et al, but what happened there should be a salutary lesson to all aspiring minnows . Shareholders lost virtually all their money because Trice and others got their ambitions mixed up with their abilities and the rest is history. Leave development to others that have the expertise and the cash to do it without the risk of crashing.
tbc