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BigB, problem is the Law, and moreso US Law is not black and white...
We may well have an excellent defence but not necessarily be found innocent.
Further to which, the BOD are not lawyers and they
will be guided by Counsel as to the likelihood of success.
Unfortunately, lawyers will never never be definitive in their opinion of an outcome in a trial of any nature, no matter how overwhelming the evidence in your favour may be.
They know that certain evidence may be inadmissible once they get to Court or late new evidence may be allowed into the bundle AND last but not least they always cite the Judge himself may see it all different.
So, what I am saying is that the BOD will ultimately call the shots but this decision is being determined by the Lawyer’s advices.
My read is that they are being advised to take it so far so the DOJ have doubts as to their case may not be watertight and by casting that doubt in their minds, this will then hopefully put them on the back foot in the settlement negotiations.
It’s all a game of brinkmanship and goes on all the time.
A BLUE finish for a change........!
I think our determination to fight on may in fact be having
a positive effect....!
GLA!
Hi dodge, I don’t disagree that even a settlement would give the SP a significant lift and a big part of me just wants the uncertainty over. However, if I was a member of the BoD I think it would be my duty, if I believed the claims made against the company were bogus to fight on. The damage to our SP has been done it would be a difficult decision for those in charge to accept responsibility via settlement when they obviously believe absolutely that we are in the right. As shareholder we often look for short term profit but the Directors must surely defend the rights of the company otherwise it will become a free for all. The Chairman’s letter is probably the most forceful statement of its type I have ever read and comes with some liability - this guy is no fool and he would not have commented as he has if he did not totally believe that fighting the case was the right thing to do. Yes I am heavily invested, yes I am showing a loss on that investment but if we are right surely we have to support the board in defending our position otherwise the industry is finished as every Tom, Dick and Lawyer in the system will make some sort of claim as they will see a route to fame and fortune. Hold hard.
BigB, I was for a long time thinking of possible dismissal but have now tended to side with the idea that even if we have a good argument to defend the case, it still may well may make
commercial sense to try and agree a reasonable settlement figure and then move on...
Anything under the provision will result in a
SP spike...
Good post as always Bigbangs ..ATB.
GLA!
100% agreement BIGBangs
GLA
We knew this was not a share for widows and orphans but the swings in the SP have taken most of us by surprise. I don’t see shorters as an issue, there are none declared ie over 0.5% and as they are never shy to take advantage of an opportunity that they often spot before the rest of us that fact alone should give us confidence. I notice that as TEVA are close to reaching a settlement, which will almost certainly be cash not product, that their SP has risen by well over 50%. I will not yet let go of my belief that this case will be dismissed, I believe the facts as identified within the Chairman’s letter and ancillary documentation on the website together with subsequent events provide a compelling argument. My backstop is a reasonable and sensible settlement - I think less than 100’s millions others think more but only time will give us the answer. I do not have a stop loss as I believe that has been what the market swings have been searching out from many, I will hold until we have a resolution. If we have a significant swing downward on no news I will add but I am unlikely to sell any before the game is over. Whatever your own strategy, if you are invested I wish you well.
ADG89 I agree with your settlement estimate..BUT I do not
think we will be asked to give away stocks as well. That
was an offer by another drug company in an effort to
get a smaller fine as it would effectively have reduced
their outlay....it was not a part of any agreed settlemet deal!
The shorters have had a fully paid vacation of the back of this, a slight upward movement for a single day won't matter one jot to them.
This share is doing nothing major either way until there is news on the outcome of the case or settlement.
For what it's worth I believe the settlement will be in the region of $4-500m dollars and shed loads of supplies to be donated to states free of charge for treatment.
The fine will be manageable based on the cash reserves of $1bn+ and giving away the medicines will have a impact on profits but it will hurt Indiviors competitors just as much when are building up their own stocks ahead of being able to sell their own brands of the treatment from October 20 ( I think I've read that's when the orphan status expires).
Overall think MCap will bounce back to circa £1bn based on the above and I wouldn't be surprised to see a big special dividend paid out utilising some of the cash which they are clearly currently stockpiling ahead of any settlement.
DYOR
Fully loaded now thanks to the shorter’s and derampers, not long now
Everything has been already priced in this share so what are all the derampers still trying to achieve here bring to 1p must say they’ve done well so far but I think it’s more then cheap at this price and it’s probably as low it’s going to get after the results we’ve had
The recently announced advertising campaign for SUBLOCADE should also significantly improve revenue....hopefully :-)
GLA and f**k the DOJ
People have forgotten just a quick reminder
stronger-than-expected performance from its opioid-addiction treatment Suboxone.
It now expects full-year 2019 revenue to be in the range of $750m to $790m, up from previous guidance of between $670m and $720. Meanwhile, net income is expected to come in between $160m and $190m, up from a previous range of $80m to $130m.
Thanks to all the shorter’s and derampers enjoy the ride