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Ian B: No agenda and I don't have any shares and i hope that no-one could say that I am ramping either way which is always a posters ultimate sin. I have always tapped into LSE simply because I have thought it was more London centric and was interested to see what people were saying and I have had times where I am an enthusiastic holder of various shares usually on a punt type basis but actually when the March drop came i sat on stuff which I shouldn't have done. I had real fun back in 2000 a respectable amount and then lost it which my wife never lets me forget. Most of my holdings now are unit trusts in ISAs and actually I was over weight in Pharmas and unbelievably didn't lose anything over the past few months which was more by luck than good judgement.
I joined because for the first time I actually thought i had something to contribute so I jumped in.
What I would say is that the Group is led by real business men rather than lawyers trying to be business men. I think they will be much more ruthless in how they go about turning this around. I do think Q2 is going to be challenging but I cant see how the price goes any lower. They must hold on to the established shipping partners although I think all those that wanted to go have gone. That will be the barometer for me so I if see something i will post. I don't think I would buy now because there is more fun to be had elsewhere including silver and bitcoins. However, as a punt at the end of the summer if things havent got worse in the world I might be tempted just so that I had some skin in the game. I think the price has factored in the present difficulties and an upbeat message at H1 would see some confidence return.
The thing to remember with Ince is that the shareholders are at the bottom of the food chain and the ones taking much more of the risk....so now..with the near future somewhat uncertain still, the market is de-risking to lower price levels ...
Legal services are competitive like any other sector so it is as much about conrolling costs as it is about bringing in revenue....
..here the costs seem too high and with a bigger size of partnerships on board it is overall more risky IMO..at pesent...but having said that they are pretty set up for when economic conditions improve ....need the US election out of the way and covid addressed first I can imagine...in order to improve confidence and decision making...
China ...debts are a a bit of a domino affect..usually if someone owes you, you dont pay the next man down the line...until the bottleneck clears
You do seem to have a detailed knowledge or taking time to look up Lots of detail.
Can i ask why? You’ve re-registered on lse just to post on Ince so Clearly some agenda..
I reluctantly sold at 27.5p area to preserve what was left of my profits as could Clearly see a drop was coming. . The Initial financial highlights looked great Revs and pre tax profit as expected but on closer look i wasn't happy with a few things. Not just the 9.5m loss to the company but cash burn is high.. £14m raised has dwindled to £6m in 6 months and forecast is cash in October at £2.5m so Potentially another raise by Xmas unless they start to generate some cash? I was Quite peed off that no mention of divi being reinstated yet the fat cats still get theirs. Where the 50/50 split there.
Disappointing as i had high hopes for INCE. Never mind move on.
Everything I write is from public sources and some of the stuff is in the legal press and doesn't filter through. People moves are public:
https://www.law.com/international-edition/2020/02/14/ince-hit-by-eight-partner-walkout-four-sector-heads-to-exit/
But that was announced in Feb but they didn't leave until around June. So if you then google the names of those that leave you can see where they go. Also in the results you will see a management fee paid to Stand Marine. You can then see that is Faz Peermohameds vehicle which GD also took over:
https://www.stann.com
So that is now a competitor and filled with ex Ince people. The point is that the results do not (for obvious reasons) deal with these issues. I maybe that investors were asking about them but the response is likely to be that Julian Clark is recruiting "tier 1" partners....whatever they are.
I don't have any stake in the company at all but I do know the sector. I have been on these chat rooms for years but it is a sector and company I know and it was interesting to me to see how people talked about a company and the speculation. II know how law firms work and so few are listed. I have done pontificated in the same way on other companies but I have really come to appreciate how little we know. But on this one I do have real insight I think and am happy to share that.
In all your posts you seem to know a lot about the company Hellas8278, beyond what most people could assess from RNS statements, accounts and broker notes (people moves not reported in press, overseas offices performance etc) - do you have a position? You seem to have quite a negative sentiment but not short, can't quite work it out - cheers
Very impressive? Which bit? This was the first year of the new Ince group and comparing the increase in income and profits has come about mainly through the acquisition of other firms and the old ince international network.
I accept that they came close to the 100m target. Closer that I thought and would have made it if Covid hadn't banged into the Far East early in the year. Don't forget when the take over first happened they anticipated 110m. Its what the results say about what is happening now which is more concerning. Q1 is down 10% on "budget" (although we don't know whether that is an increase on last year - it may well not be because they would be looking at Covid) and that was when most firms were flat out productive because everyone was sitting at their desks at home. So Q2 is a challenge not least because a lot of people will be on holiday etc. Further some sectors are going to be hit hard although the breakdown across sectors suggest that commercial property for example is only a small proportion of the business but it still impacts on the top line. So assume that the budget for this year is the same as last at 100m (organic growth is 5% so you would expect a target to be at least that amount). Ironically shipping is key and yet it was the downturn in shipping work that got the old Ince into trouble in the first place. Further they have lost three heads of sectors in the last month or so which has gone under the radar and they are not getting like for like replacements. Those leaving must be doing so in part because of earnings.
So Q2 will see a bigger decline so lets assume 10% down on budget. Thats still about a drop of 4-5m in H1. Realistically then H1 is looking at income of around 38-39m. They have reduced salaries it seems and stopped all discretionary spend and will work to get the costs down as a proportion of the fee which they say is about increasing fees by getting new people in particularly in overseas offices. Then yo have to consider the provision for bad debt. 43% of receivables are now over 90 days. 37% are over 180 days and the results suggest that a chunk of that bad debt is in China. The autumn is going to be challenging I think.
Does anyone know the significance of the S408 Companies Act exemption re filing income statement?" The Ince Group Plc is both a company in its own right, in which people on this board own shares, and also the head of a group of companies - which it owns. The Ince Group Plc is called the parent company, and the companies it owns are called subsidiaries. Together the parent company and its subsidiaries make up the group. Parent companies have to report accounts at both a company and a group level, though most are exempt from reporting as a company because those accounts are meaningless. Because you own shares in the parent company, you also indirectly own the subsidiaries, so you're invested in the group as a whole. Those are the accounts you see. The loss here refers to the parent company in its own right, which presumably has little revenue. The parent company is just an entity that tidily holds ownership of all the subsidiaries and allows you to own shares in the whole group. Often the parent company generates no revenue, has few staff, and only incurs some of the costs. Lets say the parent company leases a building for £9m. It then allows all its subsidiaries, which actually make the money, to use the buildings and doesn't charge them. Boom, £9m loss for the parent company, but a £9m gain for the subsidiaries. Makes no difference to shareholders because the -£9m and +£9m neutralise each other because the shareholders in the listed parent own the whole lot. It's just an intra-group transaction.
I’d suggest you all re read the Results - as expected very impressive. 50/60p here we come