Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Also, the fact that something is _bound_ to happen with Vermelho in the year or two after Araguaia finance complete is the reason it is madness to sell up on Araguaia finance complete. Assuming Vermelho is the better asset, and contributes nothing to the shareprice at this point, you are essentially passing up > 50% of the pizza by selling up post Araguaia finance.
The only worse time to sell up than post Araguaia financing complete is now - pre Araguaia finance complete!
The beauty of Vermelho is it is 'ready enough' but not 'too ready'. Clock is ticking Messrs Vale, Teck, Glencore, BHP. Elon won't wait forever...
As usual wasarunner, a great post. I was just about to say all that but I just clicked the recommended instead;-)
Flavour apologies if this posts twice having problems with the site or my browser! My view on Vermelho is - and I really like this situation - Horizonte have declared (and it is probably true) that we don't have the capability to develop it ourselves. But whether or not it is true it doesn't matter, it has dangled the carrot very much out there.
It will take some years to develop, who knows how long, shorter timeframe for a company with deeper pockets.
It is a huge asset, better than Araguaia. I do believe that puts pressure on anybody already at the table with Horizonte, or mulling a purchase. The pressure is on because if you want to hit 2023-25 with production (from Vermelho) you'd better be thinking seriously about your offer right now.
I like this situation because I think the offer will come (Vermelho is too good to pass up) and the 'time pressure' element means existing shareholders will see a return sooner than later.
If Horizonte were to go on to develop it it would be earliest second half of the decade for production IMO and whether or not it misses the cycle - it is still a way away. Most PI's will have sold up and bought Covid stocks or the next big thing by then.
So in summary - I'm very happy to hold for Araguaia production, which I think Horizonte can get to, including 'phase 2' production some years later. I do believe in the meantime Vermelho will get monetised and perhaps the whole company. But the one scenario I don't really see is Horizonte developing Vermelho themselves. And the time pressure for our buyer is on if they want to hit the sweet spot of Mr Musks demand curve. GLA
Flavour - yes I do believe there is pressure (from a buyer) to get Vermelho progressed and I like it. I like the fact Horizonte don't have to do anything, they've said they are building Araguaia, shareholders have plenty to look forward to, leave it there and if somebody really wants to hit the 2023-25 sweet spot with Vermelho production they probably need to be at the table now, or mulling an offer.
The time pressure works for us, shareholders, if we believe Horizonte don't have the capability to develop both mines. Right now, for 2025, I suspect we don't. But somebody else will. I don't think anybody on this board would complain too much if we monetised Araguaia (or the whole company) sooner than later, of course always providing the price is right. GLA
Actions speak louder than words sometimes and I sometimes wonder why we aren't seeing more action in regards to securing known nickel reserves? Are we expecting some kind of last minute scramble rather than strategic bets laid well in advance? I can imagine a last minute scramble would be good for us and leave HZM in a better negotiating position.
Someone mentioned though that Vermehlo needs to be snapped up fairly soon however or risk 'missing the boat' with how long it will take to get up and running.
Western owned companies just need to pull their fingers out and secure HZM's 3.5mt of nickel sooner rather than later if they're that worried. 3.5mt is a drop in the ocean compared to Indonesian reserves but your still looking at $50b + worth
https://www.mining.com/china-ev-ambitions-threat-to-entire-us-auto-industry-report/