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Soundbuy, good point, apologies I am a complete rookie, to correct myself, I hope the general market 'realise what we actually have here' as this share is flying WELL under the radar. Good night all ??
A very attuned post thankyou. Won't be long now. Really is pays your money, I wouldn't care to tell anyone what to do.
Yep, there’s clearly a seller and I’m half wondering now if management are waiting for that to clear before anything decent is announced.
I have listened I think to every interview JM has given in the last 12 months and am convinced he has said in one of those that the bank credit approval would be announced separately to the main finance package. But I’ll be damned if I can find that video now. It might have been the 121 mining conference last end October which is the only video I know of I can’t find a recording of.
Whether he did or not, or whether he has since changed his mind, even if the banks have to go through local, regional, global HQ credit committees to get the overall approval, I can’t see that process taking more than 4 weeks even with 5 banks involved - the tweets toward the end of June were maybe cryptic/ambiguous but signalled the major DD hurdles had been got over, so we have to be blinking close. Or even credit approval is done but not announced.
Frustrating as it might be, I have to assume when the cornerstone deal was done last year that management did not think they’d need to keep it confidential this long. And now it’s gone this far even if they want to provide reassurance, they can’t.
Hopefully patience will pay for the current holders.
Chicken and egg isn't it. When peeps realise this is the share to buy and start buying mms have to raise the price to entice sellers. Except in the case of Horizonte I think they will have a problem because when the traders exit there wont be sellers to meet buying demand. It is a low volume share and if the cornerstone takes the rump of new shares buyers won't find sellers - all imo. In that context current selling is to be welcomed as it is probably from entities that need out at any price. We are quite neqr year lows and on the verge of huge rerating news so what other possible reason for selling. All imho
' I hope the mm's start to realise what we actually have here'
Not really their job TBH.... simply balance the market, provide liquidity and skim a profit from the spread.
Hi Wasa,
Thank you for another detailed response, I would definitely take a 10bn market cap!!! Exciting times ahead and I will not be selling any before 30p+. I hope you are correct about the cornerstone, that would be excellent news. I hope the mm's start to realise what we actually have here, 4 mines with enormous and profitable deposits. If and when the execution of the mining is a success it should allow us to proceed without any need for further dilution, which I have no doubt will be the case. Have a good evening all.
Hi dop, no 3bn shares is not mad by any stretch it seems to be around consensus on this board based on what we know about the equity portion of the finance package (the missing part after the debt is accounted for for capex). Latterly I'm hoping less and here's why - my hunch is the cornerstone will part finance with non equity, and additionally any other prepay offtake from other parties combined with a higher sp at raise would mean we do end with less. There are additionally IIRC something like 100m or 150m in options which you want to factor for mcap calculations.
MC will depend on what % of NPV we are trading at at the time and of course the NPV will be driven by nickel price amongst other things (like the costs of production but these should remain reasonably stable). I can't see us at £1.5bn just with Araguaia stage 1 alone, even with a really really strong nickel price I don't think it is enough, but if the market already factors something for A2 or Vermelho then it is eminently possible. Down the lines as others have mused (most recently pickedpeck excellent post) $10bn mcap is possible which would equate even with 3bn shares at >£2 a share. The main problem being we are likely taken over well before that point.
Somewhere between 30p and £2 exit is a worthy goal imo and well worth hanging on for!
Hi all,
Thank you very much for your detailed responses. I was accounting for there to be an additional 1.3bn shares in issue meaning there would be 3bn outstanding shares in total, does that sound totally mad? That would mean a MC of 1.5bn for 50p and 3bn for £1. I hope nickel continues to rise, I think we would all agree a tonne should be worth at least $25k+/tonne in 3 years, but equally I hope it is not as volatile as it was in the mid 00's to prevent excessive volatility in HZM, although I would not be adverse to seeing nickel at $45k/tonne if it stayed there !! Good luck all!
Onca Puma days were bonkers. And to think Canico turned down $730m too. (JM seems to have stopped referencing the transaction to highlight the poor value assigned to HZM).
Reckon BOD would settle for 1x (and a bit)....hence my 34/35p floor for a takeover .
I am in your camp Lawrence H....and as previously posted I agree with Picked, if we can remain independent FTSE 250 easily attainable, FTSE 100 quite possible depending on how mad the supercycle goes. In the last one all the institutions had huge mining positions across their funds-not just in their resource funds.
Great post StrummerJones, it shows the possibilities are endless and with Positive Sentiment we could surpass GGP, then add some meat to the bone The Sky Is The Limit .
For me, with announcements of Finance in place , Offtake Agreement and JV easily 38p Upwards.
Hopefully News Soon ….
Buckle Up & Enjoy The Ride Of Your Life
I’d take £1/share today thanks.
Agreed on price predictions ,there is a large amount of pinch of salt to be taken as there are usually far too many variables even on fundamentals (let alone market sentiment which if course is completely unpredictable) but we all have to have targets or the investment becomes too undisciplined/amorphous IMO. As for T/O valuations - I'm perfectly happy with 3xOnca Puma (as we have 3 times the resource), so 3x$870m=£1.8bn which conveniently currently 1.7bn+0.1bn options = £1/sh. 'it will have to do'. GLA
My ZNWD profits are trickling in here, only time will tell if the right move. Mind you both have our Jeremy on the board in some capacity.
I'd agree, price predictions pretty futile. Look at #ZNWD for example. Wouldn't have expected that 10 months ago.
Only have to look at some of the recent global M&A. Takeovers are often when you see the true value assigned to a company.
Personally, & on AIM with its fickle volatility. I think price predictions are pretty futile. Look at GGP. Few saw it 1.6p to 38p in a year. Fewer still 38p to 17p in 6 months....
My only thoughts here are:
Is the asset/s any good?
Can they be exploited by the company.... is there a plan formed/forming.
If the answers are yes, and yes there is a plan & that looks viable... as in this case, assuming finance comes in to start to build A etc.
Then the SP will be worth well north of where we are now, next year and especially the year after.
I am a dull and simple lad, so I try and keep it simple!
Good luck & btw how's the complex sliding in place of the financial building blocks going JM please.... :-)
Its anyone's guess, been a holder for 8years and it continues to surprise both high and low.
Subject to financing Araguaia is a known entity and should rerate the share on completion of credit approval, then we have offtake impact and equity piece dilution. Pick a price and pick a number of shares. I est 3 to 3.5 billion shares in issue at that time.
Overlay then becomes Nickel price driver for the NPV and timeline to Araguaia 2
Second overlay comes from Vermelho, how quickly it gets developed and partnering etc.
Possible 3rd asset from such a large district is another possibility
Keeping it simple I expect to share price to be in double figures for this year end starting with a 1, and end 22 starting with a 2 and again double figures.
Hi dop, your figures are reasonable but as ever lots of variables - for me I am happy with where I think nickel will be in 2-3 yrs but what happens with our biggest asset at this stage is anybodies guess (perhaps we find out if the cornerstone has potential to be the jv partner).
My targets - 15p next year 30 at production end 2023 early 2024, anything else a bonus and if we stay independent and vermelho goes to production 50p+ is prob achievable. Cant help with other question as personally only ever deal shares. Good luck.
Hi all,
I was wondering what people think this stock will reach on a 1, 3 and 5 year view. I predict 15-25p in a year (depending on the deal and cornerstone), 35-40p in 3 years and 50p-£1 in 5 years. I am feel these figures are very achievable, but saying that I would be lying if I said I was a veteran investor (I turned 20 last week!). I have 291k shares and have been buying more stock on every available opportunity as this is by far my strongest play, although I am also very confident in my other stocks (PRE and ACP). I would love to hear everyones opinion, thank you in advance and I wish you all the best of luck!!!
Also does anyone have any good recommendations for a broker who offers call options for HZM at a reasonable rate as I feel this could be the most efficient way to utilise my limited funds. Thanks