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'Nowt to get worried about.'
You mean you're not worried that the delay may have been caused by having to pour extra water overboard?
And you're not worried about the 'considerable executive risk (presumably, of RT falling overboard and no-one noticing in time)'?
And you're not worried that Lancaster will dry up (an old favorite until a wetter scare story was invented)?
And you're not worried that Beartrice might return and scare us?
Double, you have nerves of steel!
Lonestag
Don't really want to enter into todays to-ing and fro-ing (I think I am starting to suffer HUR fatigue) but 20,000 bopd was scheduled from the start of the month, so 22 days not 32. Production prior to that was c. 9000 bopd, and the transition between the 2 production rates may well not have been instant. So the good ship AM may not be bulging at the seams yet. I too had noticed that other tankers have been operational in the last couple of days, but maybe there are reasons I don't understand (I hope so)
lonestag,
"so the the Glen Lyon can unload...why not the Aoka?"
I'm not an expert on this. As regards people who post here at the moment, it's Cebo1 who's best placed to answer. but my guess is that it's something to do with relative vessel-movement. The GL is HUGE, with a specific mooring-system. In comparison, the AM is 'smaller', and the moorings are quite different and in the AM's case, far more 'dynamic'. Meaning she moves around a lot more, also changing heading, etcetera..
Also, the GL is in deep water, with big swells coming in, admittedly. But the AM is in 'shallow' water over the Rona Ridge, where those already big swells get amplified to wave heights far greater.
Nowt to get worried about.
I m no expert either but I have been tracking Tankers all last week and the NAVION OCEANIA visited Glen Lyon mid week and it is now waiting on another Tanker...the HEATHER KNUTSEN due tomorrow...so the the Glen Lyon can unload...why not the Aoka?
'Apart from some very, very obvious and 'amateur grade' trolls you do have, this is an excellent BB... I have been in deep holes before ... and so I know what it's like. I think your hole may be much more short lived'
You didn't meet the woman who had turned into a troll bear.
She was very short-lived.
We had her fired.
sure lonestag. I have assumed the storms have affected matter regarding unloading of cargo. I can't believe you'd want to unload in mega high seas. Safety first n that. But I am NO EXPERT in this....
BH..Hur have yet to confirm that they are pumping at 20kbopd..this is the next news pi's are hoping for but as the Aoka has not yet been unloaded to date and its been 32days since last unload...it looks as if its not happened as the Aoka max capacity is 604,478 bbls and would currently be at full capacity if they were pumping 20kbopd.
https://www.bluewater.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Final-aokamizu_folder.pdf
WWN:
If I could explain the market mechanics by which the slump has been engineered, I would have by now.
You talk about 'risk.'
There has always been risk and always will be.
It doesn't explain why the SP has fallen by 76 percent SINCE first oil and during eight and a half months of steady production, recently increased by fifty percent.
RB topped up at 52p, explaining that he thought they were cheap. He didn't say to himself that he would wait till they fell to 15p because there was a risk that First Oil wouldn't happen.
It's remarkable that the lower the price goes, the more people talk about risk!
The biggest risk was that HUR wouldn't acquire the means to start developing Lancaster.
That risk disappeared long ago.
The next risk, supposedly, was that First Oil wouldn't happen.
That 'risk' disappeared eight and a half months ago.
The water risk is a manufactured horror story which unfortunately has scared the wits out of people who should know better.
There is no reasonable explanation for this share price slump other than market mechanics, aided by deliberately engineered panic.
Posters who have returned after long absences declare themselves dumbfounded.
It isn't because they aren't intelligent enough to make sense of the price fall; they are dumbfounded because they realise that something strange has been going on.
Drillspark
I take that to mean you don’t agree with me but can’t articulate a sensible argument as to why. I haven’t checked your history but I’m pretty sure most of your posts have never added anything that might help people understand their investment.
Thanks all. I too had noted the 'in 2020' wording of the RNS. Very clear really. You would not write it that way by accident.
I did not know it was lighter, better oil either. I have not pored over all the RNSs. I am still not invested and am just intrigued/puzzled by the market action. I suspect the drop to be largely 'market' driven and there will be a significant pop north early March.
I do not know this company well like many of you obviously do but it really has blown my mind what has transpired. A lot of serious money sloshing about.
I just seems very hard to credit that with the EPS up near 20,000 bopd, as we are led to believe by RNS, (not just opinion based rumour on here) the MC is where it is. I assume there must be a new offload in the next few days and if the storms abate it will be very interesting to see if there is a further offload before CMD. The new shorter interval would be very informative.
Very interesting to hear you thoughts and I will continue to follow. Apart from some very, very obvious and 'amateur grade' trolls you do have, this is an excellent BB. Keep up the info and GLALTH I say ( I have been in deep holes before with PMO and HNR (nowZOE) and so I know what it's like. I think your hole may be much more short lived !) BH
Whichwaynow , you try to come across as Mr Nice Guy..... but you are not kidding anyone, having looked back at your posts not one has anything positive to say about HUR, all doubts and downsides and no balanced views ...... so back to your lair,, along with the rest ..filtered..
'Ultimately I suspect there are other factors at play here which will no doubt become apparent at the CMD.'
You mean the BOD have been aware of factors which could have caused a 77 percent fall in the share price, but have pretended otherwise?
And that they have known all through the share price slump what they were going to reveal in the CMD?
LW
I do accept that 'one swallow does not make a summer' so therefore one deep well can never be conclusive proof that Hur's multiple reservoirs will not flow from deep. But it is a risk, and if they wish to disprove it then it comes at significant cost. You either do not agree that flow from deep is important to the SP valuation despite Hurricanes own model in the independently reviewed CPR agreeing that it is. I think most investors recognise the risk and it has affected the SP.
Would you care to explain the 'market mechanics' that you believe are the cause? To be honest, other than the normal nervousness associated with a falling SP, then I don't see any evidence. I do get that large SP moves tend to cause over/under-shoot of fair value, and I think Hur is suffering from that. But that is not a cause, it's a symptom.
Personally I would be surprised if the Spirit/Centrica sale has anything to do with lincoln tie back issues. It is clear Spirit are pressing ahead and making new drill commitments with other partners at present so there is no reason to treat the GWA partnership any different. Ultimately if it makes commercial sense then any potential suitor would expect them to act accordingly. Also completing a trade sale could take many months.
Ultimately I suspect there are other factors at play here which will no doubt become apparent at the CMD.
Two reasons:
First, Warwick Deep did not flow . ..Second, early water production from the EPS was not expected.
(WWN)
If you're saying that those are the two causes of the share prices collapse, I disagree.
You can't seriously argue that a disappointing drill result and the existence of water cuts, which is normal, outweigh the excellent LC result and a fifty percent increase in production, let alone explain a 77 percent fall in the share price.
Someone asserted that the price fall is the result of institutional investors becoming nervous.
This, too, is merely a rationalisation.
We have yet to see any evidence that institutional investors have been selling.
The price has fallen because of market mechanics and nothing else.
MCB55,
I agree with Cap'tSwag. Good post,
I hope you'll have noticed that in my own on the subject, I mentioned a possible technical reason for no LC tieback this year is an optimistic one: maybe just wishful thinking on my part.
But we're obviously thinking on the same lines regarding it all possibly having something to do with the Spirit / Centrica selloff.
It mustn't be forgotten that it's not all of Spirit being sold: just Centrica's portion of it. And of course it's unknown where an eventual buyer will want to focus uppon: WoS or elsewhere.
It's also just occurred to me that in the absence (so far) of a CPR relating to the GWA campaign, Spirit is unable to honestly put an asset value on their JV with Hurricane, so prefer to leave that to the buyer's judgement as a 'clean slate', so to speak, with no forward commitment to continuing the HUR partnership, according to choice.
mcb - good post. i saw the tieback as a consequence of spirit's status at the moment. they are trying to be sold and it possibly is a complication that they felt was not the right time. They may or not be interested in the future - however i have factored the worst case scenario.
"The GWA Partners have concluded that it will not be possible to tie-back the Lincoln Crestal Well to the Aoka Mizu FPSO in 2020..."
Extract from Feb 6th rns, the key words are " in 2020". To me this infers that there are no technical reasons causing the delay, because it can be tied in later (say 2021). So reason for delay is either Spirit financial freeze or a logistical/timing problem with the OGA. Because the OGA want LC P&A'd and commitment wells to be drilled as a priority to satisfy licence conditions, on both GWA and GLA. Hur might be able to get OGA to agree a delay to LC P&A til later in the drill plan, by which time they might persuade them to delay another year. Hur have to plan for the worst while hoping for the best (from OGA), so they must put plans in place to P&A LC as responsible operator, whilst still negotiating. Similarly they had to release the vessels contracted for the LC tieback, as every week that goes by then cancellation costs go up and the wrong message is sent to the OGA (that we think we can persuade them not to insist on P&A .........and so we have not stood down tieback vessels and have not committed to a drill plan with P&A........so there OGA what do you think about that!.......the OGA would blow a fuse!!). IMHO
CS
I don’t think there is a lot of fundamental differences in our views. My point was that I believe the 2 risks I gave underpin the fall from 50p + to the current SP. Investors now need to make their own judgements on how representative WD is and whether the water is perched or not. If they’re positive- then the stock is under-valued.
BH. You ask whether I believe it’s perched or not. The company are telling us it is, and I’m prepared to believe that. The more relevant point to me is how extensive the perched water is - there’s a whole world of difference between the discrete bubbles HUR displayed at the last CMD and the previous ‘ jellyfish’ model.
BlackHopper,
"Why the F can't they tie back Lincoln Crestal to the AM? "
I posited a few guesses about this a week or so a go. One guess was that it might be something to do with the offload agreement aith BP, but I've now rather dismissed that idea, because surly that would have been something discussed even before the initially planned tieback became news.
Maybe it's in some way related to Centrica selling its stake in Spirit, , but if so it'll be arcane boardroom stuff where even guessing would be a waste of time.
I'd still like to think that it's due to something quite prosaic and technical. The Lincoln crude is lighter than that of Lancaster (making it yet better quality!), but there may be a problem with intermingling two different crude types in the AM's production train, or again, how to handle the commercial side when it comes to offload.
The fact that Hurricane has been (still is?) negotiating with OGA for an extension indicates that they're no happier with the P&A than we are. If such an extension isn't granted, it would be unfair of the market (in my opinion) to lay 'blame' at Hurricane's door for that move, or to assume that there's something 'wrong' with the GWA. Though since when has the market been 'fair', or employed rational thinking? Lincoln P&A will instead be no doubt leaped upon by the naysayers and derampers as further ammunition for their popguns.
It's a question, however, that I feel DR Trice will be utterly obliged to address at the CMD, no matter what the outcome.
I can't help wondering if OGA hasn't been leaned-on or otherwise pressurised by some unknown third party or parties for reasons equally unknown in this respect, but that's a different question and possibly potentially dangerous if not libellous, so probably best not speculated about too much. In the past, HUR seems to have had an excellent relationship with OGA, the out-of-round granting of the block license extension all the way up to Halifax in 2017 being a case in point. It would be unfortunate if that's in some way changed, and would again raise some questions.
I was very interested in WhichWays post. As I said yesterday I am all for views that are more critical provided they are reasoned.
I think BlackHoppers point c) is also on everyones mind. Why spend many millions (I don't know how many) drilling a prospective production well, achieve it and establish that it flows at commercial rates, have a FPSO with capacity to exploit it sitting there ready for plug in and then spend further millions to P&A rather than proceed and generate revenue? Maybe there are very good reasons, in fact there must be, but we as PIs who only have exposure to the oil industry via the local petrol station cant see them. I need spoon feeding the reason, as otherwise the significant delay between the prospective P&A announcement and clarification (hopefully) in the CMD presentation helps destroy the SP.
If that is the case then maybe HUR should be a private company, as efficient development of the fields cannot be achieved while keeping 'the market' happy.
I agree the waffle is good
so WWW, I don't know the background but
a) do you believe in perched or are you doubtful or is it just impossible to say?
b) what will the plan be for Lanc 8 well? I assume they'd love another 6 well.
c) Why the F can't they tie back Lincoln Crestal to the AM? Makes no sense.
Thanks BH
which way
I don't think you can judge the whole of Rona Ridge by Warwick deep. just as it would be wrong to assume it was all like lancaster. we have had very different results from the wells drilled. That is exploration. hopefully the more they learn the more and understand the better future drill results.
Spirit's involvement in my mind didn't work out. the campaign was not successful with the hoped for results. I had written GWA off in december and ultimately Spirit continued involvement. hur did well from an operational view as the exploration cost them a lot less than if they had done it alone. I dont remember there being a huge rise in SP when spirit deal was announced. i didn't value GWA that much in the SP - it was exploration after all. however the campaign has hit HUR sentiment hard - along with other issues.
Water was expected - look the presentations. The company have repeated that they continue to believe it is perched with the data they have acquired. the whole point of the 6-12 months data evaluation is to see the longetivity of the field. We have been producing for 8 months now - although i think the continuous production is counted from September so that means only 5 months. If you go by the RNS then results have been better than expected. Anyone who wants to read between the lines and come up with a different opinion than the official RNS line is entitled to do so - but without all the facts to back it up - it at this stage an assumption.
I agree the jury is probably still out on a farm out or sale - though lets be honest we dont know what is going on.
yes there is a lot of noise - and people posting to support their position - very much like i am doing here!
Two reasons:
First, Warwick Deep did not flow. Along with similar evidence from other wells it implies oil may not flow from depth on the Rona Ridge as all the fields are considered analogous. The implications are spelt out in the Hurricane and RPS models published in the CPR - water breakthrough and significant (circa 75%) resource reductions. This is likely to affect how Spirit view their investment moving forward.
Second, early water production from the EPS was not expected. Assuming it is perched (best case) then it will significantly complicate FFD planning, adding cost and risk. Until it is understood a sale or further farm out will be difficult to achieve.
Most of the rest is noise from unscrupulous traders trying to sow fear or over-extended investors who claim to be in for the long-term but spend every minute watching the SP.