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What you also need to factor in is that WC is steadily increasing. I’m sure it can be extrapolated and show the inflection point.
It’s what is know as simple arithmetic. They have bought 34% of the bonds leaving 66%. 66% of 230m is 151.8m. As at end of August they had free cash of $144m out of which they are committed to paying the tendered bonds plus interest The tender payment is said to be $62m including interest which leaves free cash of $82m. So they need to generate $69.8m (151.8 minus 82) between now and next July to clear the bonds.
If they can continue to produce at 10-11 bopd and subject to the oil price not crashing they should do it comfortably.
The big issue is whether they will be able to generate sufficient surplus cash to allow then to commit to further drilling next year.
thanks for correctin my workings but this will do me fine -
'could be debt free by end Jan'
peeps
please, wake up
HUR ain't throwing off 22 mill a month - 22 mill is tanker load
current position - 152 mil owed minus 82 mill cash in kitty = 70 mill shortfall
1 months oil sitting in AM, say 10 mill
current bond shortfall is 70 - 10 mill = 60 mill
ie circa 4 - 4.5 months oil from now
could be debt free by end Jan
or before if early repayment sum + wind down costs held in escrow taken into account as naturally fall away as thing develop
Show me a company that is throwing off free- cash at $22m pcm. God, without the bonds this company's value would rocket.
At current POO and production rates (hefty assumption I know) the FCF by maturity date is exceeding $165m, and that's free cash flow adding to the existing cash balance
Yes
Free cash is increasing by $22m pcm
Very very pleasing
This company is taking advantage of the higher oil prices and sorting the business out.
SP to rise today
GLA
The cash was before paying for the bonds and with increased oil for august - but about $20m per month going by current Poo and reduced output is correct. And yes CB if Poo and production stay solid will be paid early even with other costs to be accounted for
Numeracy is not my strongest point but is this correct? -
'Reducing the par value of Convertible Bonds held by third parties to $152 million. '
'As of 31 August 2021, the Company had net free cash(4) of $144 million, compared to the last reported figure of $122 million as of 31 July 2021.'
Free cash is increasing by $22m pcm by my calcs!
Yes, there are other future liabilities but at this rate that debt will be retired before the maturity date and by some margin. Someone with a better handle on such matters may have a contrasting opinion