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Good luck with your bet, Cebo.
My old friend Genghis is just one example of an investor who has allowed all the negative reports and sentiments, which one cannot avoid if one spends one's free time outside one's freezer, to cloud his judgment.
It's a good thing that Trump is President, rather than Ilhan Omar.
Ghengis, ref your views in your post an hour ago about the PoO hitting the teens before the 30, I am always willing to take a gentleman's bet on it hitting the 30's before the teens - let's say £100 for the Air Ambulance.
Oh, one last thing!
"Well I think you couldn't be more wrong on all counts"
Yes, I might be. It's my view, and its not the only one. That's what the forum is for.
hi, extrader.
On your frst para, that situation is coming anyway when c.25% of demand falls off. Best to use it to your advantage.
On your second, well, I think it was covered by my caveat, "geopolitics may interfere,".
Cebo
My views are formed by events in the oil and wider markets, and I form those views in large part from links I often post here.
I don't know if your perception that my "negative posts" track the SP is observationally correct, all I can say is that I look at the oil market, and at least on this occasion have been ahead of the game. I don't "think the oil price is going to be negative" in the sense that it will be less than zero, just to be clear. I do think there is currently a much greater likelihood of it falling into the teens than rising thru the30s.
Any views I post on here will be those that are informing my investment decisions, not vice versa.
"I look forward to …….. when the SP is much higher than it is now." Amen to that.
Probably why there are now 2x Nimitz carriers in theatre!
For anyone who thinks Brent could 'turn negative', I recommend watching political events closely, paying particular attention to my post of 00:19 today.
Ghengis, any reason why the ammount of your negative posts seem to track the Share Price and Oil Price. - SP rises, you post more often with the same negative doubts and doom. I get it, you think the oil price is going to be negative, you think drastic action is needed for Hur to survive etc. Well I think you couldn't be more wrong on all counts. I look forward to if and when you buy back in and post balanced views again - hopefully when the SP is much higher than it is now.
Hi Genghis,
My thought was that - it's all very well being lowest cost producer, but - if you have to export most of your production and (apart from Tapline and a couple of other overland routes) all the vessels capable of shifting product are already laden (incl. with your own production), it doesn't matter what you produce, you can't actually deliver it. 'Hoist with your own petard' comes to mind.
Another thought : What price somebody closing the Straits of Hormuz right now ? The US, the Russians and the Iranians - to name but 3 - might not be totally distressed …… and whether it's misdirection, maskirovka or use of proxies, all 3 have form.
ATB
"What happens to Saudi production , when its customers run out of storage / demand and there are insufficient tankers to shuttle to/fro and no VLCCs left for charter...?"
They will still be the lowest cost producer, the last man standing, I guess. Much ST pain all round, bite that bullet and hold on, they can stand it more than most.
Seems a viable strategy to me. Of course, no saying how far they can take it given that geopolitics may interfere, and there mb more practical matters such as you describe , that I am unaware of.
As ever, we (and HUR) are mere pawns in the game, and just have to wait and see.