Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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This is a Test Post, cannot seem to post on RA Sweepstake, anyone else having same issue?
Emptyvessel - we're the fish being reeled in and out.
They have been steadily producing for 3 months...they have been collecting data all along.
Can't understand why people are thinking that means starting from now.
Hi DC,
That would be fantastic but HUR always seemed to discount anything before FOIL as "messing about" so I think if you check with IR you will find RT means 6 months from FOIL.
Not long to wait......
GLA.
Biffadog
RT said:
"However, we remain cognisant that it will take at least six months of steady state
production before we are ableto evaluatethevalidity of our reservoir model"
What he did not say is when the sixth month period started.
They have been producing at an average 14k bopd
"Average production of 14,100 bopd, from first oil to the most recent lifting completed on 17 September 2019, has been ahead of guidance of 9,000 bopd."
But also they say
"We therefore expect the average production constrained by systemavailability and data gathering
requirements to be in-line with guidance at approximately 11,000 bopd for the remainder of the year"
Which suggests to me that the six months of steady state production starts from now.
aduk,
I'd be amazed if we do not hear about a drilling rig being booked for GLA in the next few months. My money is on 2 GLA wells in Q2/3 of 2020.
More interestingly, I note that RT is now quoting circa 6 month of stable production to prove up the EPS. If we take FOIL at 5th June and forest the previous 3 months of "messing about" then that's only the start of December. I fully appreciate this is not binary but it's at this stage that people should really start to sit up and take notice. Most on here did that a long time ago.
GLA.
Biffa,
"Secondly, this is years away and should be way down your worry list. Come back Q4 2020 when hopefully GLA will have had a few more wells drilled on it."
OK, I appreciate that you didn't address this to me. And also, despite my musings today, financing of FFD isn't something which causes me worry, 'cos as you say, it's a long way off.
HOWEVER, I don't know why you're advising Longwait to return to his freezer until the back end of next year. Because if it's on the basis of GLA drilling, according to all corporate planning published to date, new new wells are anticipated on GLA until 2021. Sure, such planning can change, but up to now, any GLA wells being drilled next year are nothing but figments of the imaginations of over-enthusiastic BB posters.
Thanks for your replies, Double and Biffa.
What makes you think I am defrosting, Biffa?
I'm in the freezer, cheating.
Can get tricky, clearing the ice off the laptop, though.
Also, typing can be tricky when you can't feel your digits.
For "Too many shares..." read "Too many bonds..."
LONGWAIT,
For somebody that says they spend their time chilling out in a freezer waiting for HUR to come good, you don't half spent a lot of time out here defrosting.
A couple of points whilst you're out and about.....
Firstly who said anything about a rights issue and dilution. The FFD could be financed by bonds and revolving loan facilities and any number of other financial options held against HUR's considerable assets (Don't forget GLA will be proven up to even be in this position).
Secondly, this is years away and should be way down your worry list. Come back Q4 2020 when hopefully GLA will have had a few more wells drilled on it.
I'd get back in your freezer and chill out if I was you.
GLA.
LW,
"'finding three or four billion...'
That means more dilution, Double.
"Too many shares..."
Well of course, that did occur to me. But I just wonder if the investment market could actually be 'tapped' for such sums? It's not as though Hurricane pays dividends.
One thing's for sure. If AS mentions a 'slug of equity' again, or words similar, you won't see adoubleuk for dust...
DC,
Thanks for that comment. I think I agree. (And I missed the mention of relinquishing Strathmore, but that comes as no surprise.)
Something I find interesting...
I note that nobody here has made mention of SXX. I was never invested there, and an article in the Times a few months ago seemed a bit like 'writing on the wall', but I don't want to sound gloating. However, I've glanced at the SXX BB a few times over the last few days, just to see how people were reacting. Human-interest stuff, even if it might seem a bit ghoulish.
So I was somewhat surprised to see a thread there headed 'Sirius vs Hurricane', a thread started by SIPP, a regular poster here. Drawing attention to the following article:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/902865/sirius-minerals--fields-and-dreams-why-small-cap-firms-struggle-when-building-projects-902865.html
It's worth reading. Especially with the possibility of HUR 'going it alone' for GLA FFD, because to my mind, even with revenue from EPS, and increased revenue from a beefed-up EPS following Lincoln hookup and tie-in to the WOSP gas system, I still harbour some doubts as to whether 'going it alone' is feasable.
Oh, and Xcite gets a mention, as well.
I wonder why SIPP didn't post that link here, as well, given that the article's title refers to Hurricane?
'finding three or four billion...'
That means more dilution, Double.
"Too many shares..."
adoubleuk
As long as the industry remains confident HUR can only develop GLA with a partner they have the upper hand. HUR have to demonstrate that they have the capability to go it alone.
Not sure if this has been mentioned but I noted they are giving up the Strathmore licence
An interesting RNS / report. I read the 'expanded' version on the company's website before logging in here, but essentially just the technical / operational stuff, skipping the detailed financials. And finding nothing much there that we didn't already know, so nothing to provoke any significant SP change.
I did note that the ESP's have still not been called into action to date, thereby disproving a wild idea I posted in the early hours of this morning!
Also noted that despite perfomance so far, the company is now 'guiding' 11,000 bbl/day from now until the year's end. OK, very well, but I wonder if this isn't typical Hurricaane conservatism again?
Also the implied possibility of 'go it alone' for initial phases of GLA FFD couldn't go unnoticed. This obviously affects shareholders, even PI's such as ourselves, should such a course of action be taken. Because despite now earning revenue, there's no way such money can significantly offset FFD costs, which are likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the EPS was. Raising half a billion is one thing (and even that raise was a 'record-breaker'), finding three or four billion is a different kettle of fish. So in that respect, I think we're back to the waiting game.
On thing notably absent from the report was even a hint as to what AS might have been referring to at the CMD when he mentioned a potential 'interruption', which was cryptic, to say the least. I begin to wonder whether his comment might not have been simply some sort of 'teaser', to keep people guessing. Because related to the hint about 'going it alone' is the lack of anything saying that the company is 'actively seeking partners', which was the case in previous years' reports up to mid-2018.
as I predicted yesterday
buy back next week below sometime 40p target