Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Yeah I was kinda pointing out that.
wellwell
The only ones disappointed are the gullible morons who believed the prediction.
I was not expecting 450K and said as much last Thursday when I pointed out it would require an average flowrate of over 16k barrels per day. “Have they thrown caution to the wind”
" People will be up in arms."
Oh, what a laugh...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uhpu2N4rQZM
RedOctober RedOctober. See if it’s now 350k you’ve inadvertently disappointed the market who were expecting 450k. People will be up in arms.
Rather a plant than a vegetable ....?.
Think you need too catch up, thats common knowledge on the the other site, so your wrong, some of you guys need to get up to speed, listening to Biffa - obviously a HUR plant will only stagnate your intelligence....
Beerbelly. There will be downtime. It may all average out. Positive that we are currently apparently ahead of the curve but let's not get carried away.
Hi Biffa
You wrote...
Gives us circa 12k bopd assuming that Amaja's figures are indeed correct. That's about where it should be. Hopefully Amaja will be able to add to his earlier..
I think we are well ahead of where we should be. Hurricane RNS of 11/7 gives their guidance as
Q3 19 9000bopd 45%
Q4 19 13000bopd 65%
2020 17k or more.
Despite the rain we are still in q3 so are smashing guidance with 12k!
"b00lsh/te"
I like it. Now I know how to write "sh/te." As opposed to writing sh/te. :-D
Oh, the irony!
In an early evening walk with Mrs SIPPn00b I reminded her that the MD of the Aim company I worked for, the four years, did not give a good for the SP. Instead, he was totally focussed on the products and the customers. We were bought out eventually for a tidy sum.
I really hope the Company is not focussed on the SP and instead, the fundamentals of the business and believe this to be the case. If so, eventually, the SP will take care of itself. AIMHO.
RedHerring58, the only reason that anyone would suggest that they have left 100k barrels in the tanks would be to justify their wrong estimate and b00lsh/te that was posted last week regarding this latest offload - ring any bells?
Biffa,
"IJWT, nothing to stop HUR tweeting a tanker offload. "
But no good reason for them to do so either. They're not gormless Twitter-addicts like the POTUS.
Who said they left 1/3 on the AM anyway.
It's all pretty irrelevant anyway, as if there is a problem with the EPS production, then HUR have clearly told us they will RNS the market.
I agree it would be nice to know the figures but with that can also come confusion (see my post of 15:46).
No RNS so all is well.
GLA.
Hey! Somehow the first part of my post somehow 'disappeared'! Probably a clumsy keystroke on my part. But I think you'll probably get the gist of the whole message. Not going to write it again...
s for updating us at the next CMD, I think that refers to a technically-detailed update. But before then, there's November-ish, and the interim half-yearly financials. So we should have some dollar figures to work with then.
But once more, the company's actual cash inflow isn't of enormous importance to we PI's, because for years HUR has stated it doesn't intend to issue dividends, and as with many AIM-listed companies, the SP doesn't always give a 'fair' reflection of a company's cash-earning ability, nor the value of the assets involved.
Personally I use far more prosaic things to 'update' my own investment tactics: like whether a flare is seen, or the end-of-well RNS. Of course one can plan such 'tactics' in advance, dependent on the eventual news (as distinct from rumour), but that's something else.
Why would they not unload the remaining 1/3rd of the cargo? This is been discussed on other BB's....Thats my point....
RO,
If you read my post properly you would understand that this is exactly the information that HUR is not willing to provide (to me or anybody else).
I have simply asked them to clarify how much EPS production information they are willing to supply and when.
It looks like MCB55 has posted a really useful update on this.
"It was stated at the CMD that quarterly production figures in arrears will be published by the OGA. So I expect the first report to be in October."
After the we have the CMD in January 2020. Until then it's guesswork and whatever Amaja can find out in Rotterdam.
GLA.
Think the question has to be asked how much oil was left in the tanks and why, if these figures are correct then I calculate over 110k short, perhaps you can email HUR and ask since you seem to have a very comfortable relationship with them...
Thanks DC.
Gives us circa 12k bopd assuming that Amaja's figures are indeed correct. That's about where it should be. Hopefully Amaja will be able to add to his earlier post.
Really appreciate all of your informative posts over the last 12 months Amaja. Especially liked the photo updates on the AM in Rotterdam. Many thanks.
IJWT, nothing to stop HUR tweeting a tanker offload. PMO did just that after one of the early Catcher offloads.
I agree with you that it would be nice to get a 3 month RNS operational update (for example).
I'm just waiting on a reply from HUR IR just to 100% clarify what the score is and will let you all know.
GLA.
It was stated at the CMD that quarterly production figures in arrears will be published by the OGA. So I expect the first report to be in October.
Apologies.
Correction to my previous post.
The 2nd offload completed 11.00am on the 21th July.
Sorry for any confusion.
Biffa
Dont think tweets for commercially sensitive market moving info would really meet the reg requirements somehow.
Updates would be good, not do so until CMD is quite simply twattish
Biffadog
28 days. The 2nd offload completed 11.00am on the 28th July and todays competed 10.00am.
I did qualify my figure by saying IF the reported weight is correct but based on official confirmation of the first offload Amaja does have credibility.
If anyone doubts the amount this is the arithmetic:
One barrel is 158.987 Litres. A cubic meter is 1000 litres so 1cubic meter is 6.2898224 barrels. A metric ton of water density 1 at 39.2degrees C converts to one cubic meter. Therefore 45,000 metric tons of water would be 45000 X 6.2898224=263042 barrels. The density of Lancaster crude, said to be 38API would be 0.835. Divide 263042 by the density and you get 338972.45.
It confirms to me that HUR are continuing the ramp up according to their stated intention and have not accelerated it as some have assumed.
Hi DC,
You say a "light load" but 340k barrels over 25 days (maybe somebody could clarify if it is 25 days as I don't have the info to hand) is 13.6k bopd, which is right where it should be at this stage in the EPS programme.
I've asked HUR about whether they will be providing any further insight into EPS production before the January 2020 CMD and got an answer back which needs further clarification (for which I have asked).
However, it looks like there will be no further production info until the CMD, unless there is a problem meeting the outlined targets, and in which case, the company will issue an RNS.
So it's case of no news is good news !
Whilst this is not ideal, I can see why they are doing it, as production will go up and down to a certain degree and if an offload was giving a slightly lower production figure than the one before it would probably create great anxiety on here, even if it was because the AM was having more maintenance work done (for example) during that 4 week period and nothing to do with the actual well performance.
Having said all that, I still think they could issue a production updates now and then (tweets maybe) with clarification of any discrepancies if applicable, but I don't think it's going to happen.
Amaja is the only reliable source on here for EPS production figures.
GLA.
cheers Amaja !